tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-80846011610208246272024-02-07T02:02:13.993-08:00Second SerbA look at all things tennis. Not breaking news, but interesting information served with a little more spin. Follow me on twitter @JaredPine or on YouTube (https://www.youtube.com/user/pinejared).Second Serbhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08919114104091280616noreply@blogger.comBlogger217125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8084601161020824627.post-41037837154103494322022-01-23T14:27:00.005-08:002022-01-23T14:27:50.012-08:00The Illegitimacy of the 2022 Australian Open<p>With Novak Djokovic being barred from playing in this year's Australian Open by Australian politicians, this year's edition of the first grand slam tournament must be considered illegitimate. Without the No. 1 tennis player in the world and the three-time defending champion being allowed to compete, this year's Australian Open might be a great tennis event, but it cannot legitimately be called a grand slam tournament.</p><p>While every year, there are players that are unable to compete in grand slams, and this doesn't put in doubt the legitimacy of those tournaments, this situation is clearly different. Djokovic is healthy, his ranking is high enough to earn direct entrance into the main draw, he was legitimately entered into the draw, and he was announced as the top seed of the tournament. He even spent four days at the tournament practicing for his first-round match before getting deported.</p><p>In the 2000s, the MLB had to ban some of its best players from playing the game because they tested positive for illegal substances. At other tennis tournaments, players have been disqualified because they tested positive for COVID-19. In the first instance, players were banned for cheating and in the second instance players were removed from the tournament for being a threat to the health of the tournament. Neither of these scenarios apply to Djokovic. He has not put any illegal substance into his body, and the Australian government declared that he posed an insignificant health risk to the community since he tested negative for COVID-19 after having recently contracted the disease.</p><p>It is also necessary to dispel with the idea that Djokovic is not allowed to play the tournament because he didn't follow the rules to get vaccinated. This is false and the Australian government has admitted as much. He had a legitimate exemption from being vaccinated that was given to him by the Victorian government.</p><p>So why was he deported like a terrorist instead of being allowed to play tennis? I'm content to let the Australian government speak for itself on this point. Here is what it said: "An iconic world tennis star may influence people of all ages, young or old, but perhaps especially the young and impressionable to emulate him."</p><p>That is what the chief justice who upheld the decision to deport Djokovic said in his official explanation. The Australian government claimed that Djokovic was perceived to be "anti-vaccine" and was therefore a bad example. They admitted that they had no evidence that he was anti-vaccine, but they cited recent demonstrations as evidence that he was perceived to be anti-vaccine and therefore a bad example. Those protests, by the way, were sparked, not by Djokovic, but by the government's illegal (as ruled by an Australian court) detention of Djokovic.</p><p>This perception of Djokovic being anti-vaccine was created by tennis journalists, who raged by his "anti-science" views in order to sway public opinion against him. None of this had anything to do with tennis.</p><p>The net result is that the athlete who has dominated tennis on the island of Australia more than anyone in history is not being allowed to defend his title, despite being eligible, willing and ready to do so. Instead, he was targeted and banned by politicians for political reasons.</p><p>This year's Australian Open is not an open tournament. It has not allowed the best players in the world to compete for the trophy. Therefore, this year's Australian Open is illegitimate. Tennis Australia, the ATP and the ITF have been silent in hopes that this scandal will go away. Rather than advocating for the interests of the greatest tennis player of all time, they hung him out to dry and now want everyone to move on and pretend this year's Australian Open is legitimate. It is not. It was always be tainted.</p>Second Serbhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08919114104091280616noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8084601161020824627.post-45829707652311213822021-09-13T16:56:00.001-07:002021-09-13T16:56:28.062-07:00My Way Too Early Predictions For 2022 Grand Slam Season<p>The 2021 grand slam season just ended and I already can't wait until the next one begins. Unfortunately, the gap between the importance of the grand slams and the ATP Tour has continued to increase. I don't think that's good for the sport in the long run, but that's the reality of where we are at right now. With three players simultaneously competing for the all-time grand slam titles record, everything else has significantly diminished importance in comparison. So with that, here are my top-5 favorites for each of the majors in 2022.</p><p><u>Australian Open</u><br />1. Daniil Medvedev<br />2. Novak Djokovic<br />3. Alexander Zverev<br />4. Matteo Berrettini<br />5. Andrey Rublev</p><p>It has been a long time since a tennis player won the very next major after having won their first career major title, but Medvedev has a chance to end that slump by first-time major champions. He's been the best player on hard courts for the last three years and was overdue for a major title. He's ready to be a multi-grand slam champion, and deserves to be the favorite for now after the performance he had yesterday.</p><p>Djokovic is the co-favorite with Medvedev, because he absolutely owns Melbourne Park. He'll be highly motivated to put the disappointment of the US Open final behind him and be the first tennis player to reach 21 grand slam titles. If anyone else wins, it would be a surprise, but Zverev is definitely a contender. He won the Olympics and pushed Djokovic to five sets at the US Open. His ability to win over five sets has been a serious question earlier in his career, but he has progressed in this area. Maybe 2022 will finally be his year.</p><p><u>Roland Garros</u><br />1. Novak Djokovic<br />2. Rafael Nadal<br />3. Dominic Thiem<br />4. Alexander Zverev<br />5. Jannik Sinner</p><p>This one really feels wide open. Nobody knows what Nadal's level will be at when he returns. If he's near his best, he's the favorite. Djokovic is able to win on any surface, but the same isn't true of his younger challengers. Tsitsipas and Zverev have had some success on clay, but Tsitsipas is inconsistent in the majors, and Zverev has never even reached the final in Paris. Sinner is still probably too young to win the title.</p><p>Ever since Thiem became a major champion, he has struggled to regain the form that saw him being competitive with Djokovic and Nadal. Now he has been away from the tour with a wrist injury. Like Nadal, if Thiem is healthy, he could definitely win the title.</p><p><u>Wimbledon</u><br />1. Novak Djokovic<br />2. Matteo Berrettini<br />3. Denis Shapovalov<br />4. Daniil Medvedev<br />5. Hubert Hurkacz</p><p>No, Roger Federer does not have a realistic chance to win Wimbledon in 2022. Djokovic will be a massive favorite at Wimbledon, but if he hasn't won his 21st major by then, the pressure will start to mount on him to break the record. Berrettini proved this summer that he is the best player in his age group on grass. Players from Poland and Canada have done well recently on grass, so perhaps Hurkacz, Auger-Aliassime or Shapovalov could make an improbable run. Andy Murray, Juan Martin del Potro or Stan Wawrinka are more likely to roll back the clocks at Wimbledon than anywhere else, but I wouldn't bet on it. </p><p><u>US Open</u><br />1. Daniil Medvedev<br />2. Alexander Zverev<br />3. Novak Djokovic<br />4. Dominic Thiem<br />5. Andrey Rublev</p><p>Medvedev is the defending champion and the best player in North America for three years. I considered him the player to beat even at this year's US Open. Djokovic will be 35 at this point, so I'd give Zverev a slight edge over Djokovic. Thiem won his first major at the US Open in 2020 and Rublev has a game that is suited well by the conditions in New York. Both of them are legitimate contenders at the next US Open. Perhaps Rublev seeing his fellow Russian lift the trophy will motivate him for the 2022 season.</p><p>I'd probably put Tsitsipas as the sixth-most likely to win the title at all four of these majors. I wouldn't be surprised if he wins one title in 2022, but I don't know where. He has been inconsistent in majors and did not look good in Wimbledon or the US Open. He was one set away from winning his first major title at Roland Garros, but he might not be that close again for a while.</p><p>Caspar Ruud, Felix Auger-Aliassime, Alex de Minaur and Jannik Sinner will all be contenders at the grand slams at some point, but I don't think any of them are ready for that in 2022. Sinner or Ruud on clay might be the one exception. Reaching multiple semifinals in 2022 would constitute a good year for any of these four up-and-comers.</p>Second Serbhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08919114104091280616noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8084601161020824627.post-1848794714713356532021-07-04T13:10:00.001-07:002021-07-04T13:10:28.865-07:00Wimbledon Predictions For Week 2<p>Since there is no tennis on the Lord's Day, it's a great opportunity to look at where things stand going into the second week of the gentlemen's singles draw at Wimbledon 2021. In particular, I was curious about what each of the 16 players' odds in terms of percentage are of lifting the trophy at the end of the fortnight.</p><p>Logically, every player has a 1 in 16 chance, which comes out to about a six percent chance of winning the title. However, not all players are created equally, nor is the draw, leaving some players with a better chance than others.</p><p>What I want to do here is explain my methodology for determining the percentage odds that each of the 16 players win the title. Then I will update those odds throughout the second week on my Twitter account (@jaredpinetennis). But before we get any farther, here are the odds for each player.</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgiUNewAsdSyVo5PgOrd2SrRzHUEtoGzgNT94DMyiCwDxNf_GlwXja3oOZV7OA2zljeBZE5EKVapKqnVbZROl3N0QYrxDuyzkK5YdHOXJ0U4Zhix6O9LTYd_geAfvJVykfVvi7PQ19QCI8/" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="409" data-original-width="356" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgiUNewAsdSyVo5PgOrd2SrRzHUEtoGzgNT94DMyiCwDxNf_GlwXja3oOZV7OA2zljeBZE5EKVapKqnVbZROl3N0QYrxDuyzkK5YdHOXJ0U4Zhix6O9LTYd_geAfvJVykfVvi7PQ19QCI8/" width="209" /></a></div>Djokovic, unsurprisingly, is the favorite to win the title with a 33% chance followed by Medvedev and Zverev. Medvedev has the clearest path to the semifinals, but Bautista Agut also has a favorable draw. Federer is unlikely to advance much further based on these odds, and Fucsovics is the least likely player to win the title.<p></p><p>I developed this predictor just over the last two days, but some of the methodology is based on work I have done in other areas. I've never been taught the Elo rating system or Elo predicting methods, so this predictor is very amateur, but it is also entirely independent in its methodology as a result, which makes it unique.</p><p>The first part of developing this predictor was to come up with a rating for each player. Someone smarter than me could have figured out a way to rate all 128 players, but I could only fit 38 names on an excel sheet on my screen at once, so I only ranked the top 38 players in the current ATP rankings. That left three of the players in the round of 16 off the rating chart, so I simply listed them at replacement level.</p><p>Then I collected all results of those 38 players going back to Cincinnati 2021. Based on their results, each player received a rating between 16.2 (Djokovic) and -11 (Fognini) with a method that would take too long to explain here. The ratings that were produced correspond closely to the current ATP rankings.</p><p>The next step was the calculate what the odds of an upset are. Not all upsets are the same though. Zverev beating Tsitsipas is much more likely than Goffin beating Djokovic. The way I calculated the odds of an upset was to look at the frequency with which a player beat someone that they were four points better than over the last 12 months. The answer was 68% of the time. So if you are playing someone that you are four points better than, you have approximately a 68% chance of winning that match. Sample sizes were still a little small even with 12 months of data to work with, so I used a rolling average to smooth out some of the outliers. The result was that there is a 53% chance of beating someone that you are two points better than, and an 88% chance of beating someone you are 20 or more points better than.</p><p>I then used this method to calculate the odds that each player would win their next four matches. The difficulty starts with the second match. Nobody knows who they will face in the quarterfinals if they win in the fourth round. Therefore, it was necessary to determine the odds also that each player had of facing each opponent. So to determine the odds that each player has of reaching the quarterfinals, the formula is: odds of reaching the quarterfinals multiplied by the odds of beating the first possible opponent multiplied by the odds of that opponent reaching the quarterfinals plus the odds of beating the second possible opponent multiplied by the odds of that opponent reaching the quarterfinals. Remember your order of operations.</p><p>This gets even more complicated when there are four possible opponents in the semifinals and eight possible opponents in the final. Knowing how to right code would have made this much easier than doing all the calculations in an excel sheet. I really should have paid more attention in my computer science class, instead of developing an MVP calculator for the MLB while my professor was lecturing.</p><p>There are 32,768 different ways that the last week of Wimbledon can turn out. This methodology essentially considers all 32,768 possibilities, then it calculates the odds of each of these unique outcomes, and finally it adds up the odds of all the 2048 outcomes that have Djokovic as champion for a sum of a 33% chance that Djokovic will be the champion.</p><p>Before I finish writing, I do want to acknowledge a few weaknesses in the methodology in order to help anyone interesting to rightly interpret the data in the table. The first weakness is that in considering all the results since Cincinnati 2020, results on clay are over-represented, because Rome and Roland Garros have both been played twice in that span. That means players that excel on clay are overrated in this system. In particular, Sonego is slightly overrated and I think Shapovalov is underrated. </p><p>The other main weakness is that the rating system does not take into consideration whether a match was played at Wimbledon or a 250 on clay. Certainly a result from last week at Wimbledon should carry more weight for predicting futures matches at Wimbledon than a best-of-3 match played on clay back in October 2020.</p><p>The way that both of these areas of weakness in the methodology impact the final data is that it inflates the possibility of an upset. That's good news for Djokovic and Medvedev fans, who probably think their players have a better chance of winning than just 33 or 27 percent.</p><p>What will be interesting to watch now is to see how the odds go up with each passing match. As the list of possible champions drops from 16 to 8 over the course of Manic Monday, how much will that help each players' odds of winning the title? I'm especially curious to see how a result on the opposite side of the draw might affect a players' odds. Obviously, if Djokovic loses, everybody's odds will go up. But if Hurkacz loses to Medvedev, what impact if any will that have on Djokovic's odds of winning the title?</p><p>These are the kind of things I want to keep an eye on as I update the odds on Twitter throughout the next week.</p>Second Serbhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08919114104091280616noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8084601161020824627.post-21694391268706480852021-06-15T07:24:00.002-07:002021-06-15T07:24:48.316-07:00Ranking By Tournament<p>I want to update a stat that I shared in the past. It is the ranking of Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer, and Rafael Nadal at all 14 of the biggest events on the ATP Calendar. What this stat does is it looks at where a player ranks in the history of Indian Wells for example based on career ranking points accumulated (using the current ranking formula). Here are the rankings of each of the three best players in tennis history at each tournament.</p><div class="MsoNoSpacing"><b>Novak Djokovic</b><o:p></o:p></div><div class="MsoNoSpacing">First (2): Shanghai, Paris<o:p></o:p></div><div class="MsoNoSpacing">Second (9): Australian Open, Indian Wells, Miami, Monte Carlo, Rome, </div><div class="MsoNoSpacing"><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span>Roland Garros, Canada, Cincinnati, Year-End Finals<o:p></o:p></div><div class="MsoNoSpacing">Third (2): Madrid, Wimbledon<o:p></o:p></div><div class="MsoNoSpacing">Fourth (1): US Open<o:p></o:p></div><div class="MsoNoSpacing"><br /></div><div class="MsoNoSpacing"><b>Roger Federer</b><o:p></o:p></div><div class="MsoNoSpacing">First (5): Australian Open, Indian Wells, Wimbledon, Cincinnati, Year-End Finals<o:p></o:p></div><div class="MsoNoSpacing">Second (2): Madrid, US Open<o:p></o:p></div><div class="MsoNoSpacing">Third (5): Miami, Rome, Roland Garros, Shanghai<o:p></o:p></div><div class="MsoNoSpacing">Fourth (3): Monte Carlo, Canada, Paris<o:p></o:p></div><div class="MsoNoSpacing"><br /></div><div class="MsoNoSpacing"><b>Rafael Nadal</b><o:p></o:p></div><div class="MsoNoSpacing">First (5): Monte Carlo, Madrid, Rome, Roland Garros, Canada<o:p></o:p></div><div class="MsoNoSpacing">Second (0):<o:p></o:p></div><div class="MsoNoSpacing">Third (1): Indian Wells<o:p></o:p></div><div class="MsoNoSpacing">Fourth (2): Shanghai, Australian Open<o:p></o:p></div><div class="MsoNoSpacing">Fifth or lower (6): Miami, Wimbledon, Cincinnati, US Open, Paris, Year-End Finals</div><div class="MsoNoSpacing"><br /></div><div class="MsoNoSpacing">Nadal and Federer are each the best player in over one third of all of the most important events on tour. Djokovic ranks among the top-2 at 11 of the 14 events. Both Federer and Djokovic rank in the top-4 at every event, and if Djokovic reaches the semifinals at the US Open, he will be in the top-3 for every tournament.</div><div class="MsoNoSpacing"><br /></div><div class="MsoNoSpacing">Over the next 12 months, Djokovic has a strong chance to move up one spot at Wimbledon (needs to reach the final), US Open (needs to reach the semifinals) and the Australian Open (needs to reach the quarterfinals or better if Federer does well). He also has a chance to retake the lead in Canada depending on how well Nadal performs at that tournament.</div><div class="MsoNoSpacing"><br /></div><div class="MsoNoSpacing">Nadal, over the next 12 months, has a chance to catch Djokovic at Indian Wells if he wins the tournament and Djokovic loses in the semifinals or earlier. He could also catch Federer for fourth place in Paris if he reaches the final there. If Nadal reaches the semifinals at the Australian Open, he would move into third place, but he is stuck in fifth place or lower at Wimbledon and the US Open at least for this year.</div><div class="MsoNoSpacing"><br /></div><div class="MsoNoSpacing">Federer doesn't have much room to improve. He could perhaps catch Djokovic in Miami or Agassi in Canada, but it is mathematically impossible to change his ranking at any of the majors. The best thing Federer can do is continue to perform well to make it harder for Nadal and Djokovic to catch up to him.</div>Second Serbhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08919114104091280616noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8084601161020824627.post-50664889774346225192021-06-14T18:40:00.002-07:002021-06-14T18:40:47.046-07:00The GOAT Debate & Short Memory<p>Right now, there are a wave of people admitting for the first time that Novak Djokovic is the GOAT after having won his second Roland Garros title to become the first player in the Open Era to complete the Double Career Grand Slam just a few months after having broken Roger Federer's record for Weeks at No. 1.</p><p>Djokovic is also very close to breaking two other important records that belong to Federer and Rafael Nadal. He needs one more grand slam title and two more wins over top-10 ranked opponents to tie the career records for both of those stats. He also has winning head-to-head records against both Federer and Nadal as well as at least two titles at every single Elite 14 event, while nobody else has at least one.</p><p>The case for Djokovic being the GOAT is stronger than it has ever been. However, we still need to zoom out and consider all of the last 20 years of tennis from Federer, Djokovic and Nadal before we crown Djokovic the GOAT.</p><p>There are non-traditional records that all three of these greats hold. Federer has the most-consecutive weeks at No. 1. Djokovic has beaten both of his rivals at all four majors, and has been ranked No. 1 by the largest margin ever. Nadal, meanwhile, has the most titles at any single grand slam with 13 at Roland Garros. These are non-traditional in the sense that they aren't simple counting statistics like total grand slams won, total big titles, total weeks at No. 1, total top-10 wins, etc.</p><p>The tricky thing about these records is that recency bias can cause us to overvalue certain achievements. Not long ago, winning Roland Garros and Wimbledon was considered a very important achievement for becoming the GOAT. However, since it hasn't been achieved in a long time, it has become considered less valuable.</p><p>It is very possible that something similar happens to Djokovic's achievement of winning every important tournament multiple times. It is such a unique achievement that is so unlikely to be repeated, which makes it an achievement that could be easily forgotten. It's an unbelievable achievement that is on our minds right now because it was just completed, but will it be at the forefront of the GOAT debate in 10 years? Probably not.</p><p>The more traditional records, not impossible to repeat achievements, will be what holds the most weight in the GOAT debate once all three of these players have played their last match. Fair or not, those are the standard metrics for determining who is the GOAT. The one possible exception is if Djokovic finishes his career with all the big records. Then, the Federer and Nadal fans will want to talk about anything but statistics.</p><p>So the question is: has Djokovic done enough to retire today and be considered the GOAT? I don't think it is case closed yet. Federer still has a lot of cumulative stats where he is far ahead of Djokovic, making his case for being the GOAT still quite strong. Federer also has several records for longest streaks that Djokovic will never be able to break.</p><p>Let's take a look at what some of these records are.</p><p>These are the cumulative records, where Federer often leads merely because he is older, and Djokovic is likely to overtake him in a matter of time.</p><p><b>Grand Slam Titles</b>: Federer 20, Djokovic 19</p><p><b>Grand Slam Finals</b>: Federer 31, Djokovic 29</p><p><b>Grand Slam Semifinals: </b>Federer 46, Djokovic 40</p><p><b>Grand Slam Quarterfinals</b>: Federer 57, Djokovic 49</p><p><b>Grand Slam Wins</b>: Federer 365, Djokovic 310</p><p><b>Top-10 Wins</b>: Federer 224, Djokovic 222</p><p><b>ATP Finals Titles</b>: Federer 6, Djokovic 5</p><p>There is also my personal favorite stat of rankings points earned.</p><p><b>At Majors</b>: Federer 70,495, Djokovic 62,485</p><p><b>At All Elite 14</b>: Federer 139k, Djokovic 131k</p><p>These are the records for longest streaks that Federer has over Djokovic.</p><p><b>Weeks at No. 1</b>: Federer 237, Djokovic 122</p><p><b>Year-end No. 1</b>: Federer 4, Djokovic 2</p><p><b>Grand Slam Finals</b>: Federer 10, Djokovic 6</p><p><b>Grand Slam Semifinals</b>: Federer 23, Djokovic 14</p><p><b>Grand Slam Quarterfinals</b>: Federer 36, Djokovic 28</p><p>I don't think much weight should be given to Federer's records for longest streaks. They do display his dominance and consistency, which is why they can't be completely ignored. However, they aren't as important as cumulative records, since they don't take into consideration a player's entire career.</p><p>In response to Federer's lead in these cumulative stats, Djokovic has a couple counter arguments. The first is to note that Djokovic also leads several important cumulative stats: Weeks at No. 1, Year-End No. 1, ATP Masters 1000 titles, head-to-head record, etc. The other thing is to note that Djokovic's career so far is significantly shorter. Jimmy Connors' career dragged on and he accumulated lots of decent results because he refused to retire, which is why he is still the record holder for ATP matches and titles won. However, nobody would say he was better than Pete Sampras. While Federer's longevity rightfully strengthens his case for being the GOAT, winning over and over in Halle and Basel shouldn't be part of his resume.</p><p>Still, Federer still has some important arguments in his favor. Djokovic will need to chase down a few of those records and shrink the gap in others in order to really make this case closed, because some of the metrics that Federer still leads are very important in the GOAT debate.</p>Second Serbhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08919114104091280616noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8084601161020824627.post-72662589496852740532021-03-08T08:22:00.000-08:002021-03-08T08:22:54.264-08:00311 Weeks: A look back<p>Novak Djokovic has been the best tennis player in the world over the last 10 years, so it might seem like no surprise that Djokovic has surpassed Roger Federer's record of 311 weeks as the No. 1 player in the world. However, if we go back in time nearly a decade, I think we will get a more accurate perspective of just how improbable this record was and how truly remarkable it still is.</p><p>On July 4, 2011, Djokovic was listed as the No. 1 tennis player in the ATP weekly rankings for the first time in his career. I still believe this is his most impressive week as the No. 1 player in the world to date out of the 311 there are to choose from. Federer and Rafael Nadal had just won 25 out of the last 30 major titles. Just to get to No. 1 in the world, Djokovic had to come back from match points down to defeat Federer in the US Open semifinals, lead Serbia to the Davis Cup title, win the Australian Open defeat Nadal in the finals of Indian Wells, Miami, Madrid and Rome, while riding a 42-match winning streak. As if that wasn't enough he had to win his maiden Wimbledon crown and defeat Nadal in the championship match.</p><p>All that work landed Djokovic one week at No. 1. At the time, Pete Sampras had 286, Federer 285, Ivan Lendl 270 and Jimmy Connors 268. Djokovic was 24 at the time and ranked No. 1, while Federer was 29 years old and ranked No. 3.</p><p>At that point in Federer's career, pundits were rightly impressed that Federer was still playing well enough at 29 to be ranked No. 3 in the world, having reached the final at just one of the last four majors. After all, Federer's contemporaries: Andy Roddick, Lleyton Hewitt, Juan Carlos Ferrero, Tommy Haas, David Nalbandian, James Blake, etc. They were all ranked well outside the top-20 and were wrapping up impressive careers in professional tennis.</p><p>Only an optimistic Djokovic fan would have been bold enough to predict the Serb could still battle for No. 1 in the world five years later when he reached Federer's ripe age of 29. And even if Djokovic managed to remain the No. 1 player in the world for five-consecutive years (a record of its own), he still wouldn't have even reached Jimmy Connors on the all-time leaders list.</p><p>And don't forget about Nadal. He had just been the runner-up at seven different tournaments in 2011, which is his career-high. There were other challengers that Djokovic had to fight off to guard his No. 1 ranking. Players like Andy Murray, Robin Soderling, Juan Martin del Potro, Tomas Berdych, David Ferrer, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Stan Wawrinka were growing in belief that they too could reach the pinnacle of the ATP rankings after seeing what Djokovic had done.</p><p>To suggest that Djokovic might get anywhere near 300 weeks as the No. 1 player in the world would have been unfathomable. Djokovic's best chance to leave his mark on tennis was to finish 2011 strong and let it stand as one of the best single-season performances in tennis history. Getting his name even halfway up the list of former ATP No. 1 Players was an unachievable goal.</p><p>Yet, here we are...</p><p>Djokovic has subsequently scaled the ladder to the top of the rankings four different times and has remained there at least 35 weeks each time, and counting.</p><p>The longest run as the No. 1 player in the world was his third, lasting 122 before before injuries ended the streak. His age at the time: 29. His total stalled out at 223, which was good enough for fifth all time.</p><p>Djokovic had two wait exactly two years before he returned to the top-spot in the rankings. I said earlier that his first week was the most impressive of all 311. Well, the 224th has to be the second-most impressive in my opinion.</p><p>After rushing his return from injury, the first half of Djokovic's 2018 season imploded and his ranking dropped out of the top-20 for the first time in nearly a dozen years. Things started to turn around when he reached the final at Queen's Club. Then he reached the semifinals of Wimbledon, where he played in an instant classic against Nadal. Djokovic won 6-4, 3-6, 7-6(9), 3-6, 10-8 and went on to win the title, his fourth Wimbledon title.</p><p>A month later, Djokovic won the illusive Cincinnati title to complete his trophy case with at least one from all 14 of the elite events around the tour. At the US Open, he only dropped two set and won all of the last 16. He eventually won Shanghai and reached the finals of Paris and the ATP Finals to climb 20 spots in the rankings and return to No. 1 in the world.</p><p>Djokovic's current run atop the ATP rankings at nearly 34-years old is impressive in its own way. The Serb won the 2020 Australian Open winning the final in five sets over an opponents six years his junior to take back the No. 1 ranking. It was his 17th major title and put him within striking distance of a once unreachable record at a point in his career when past tennis greats would be starting a broadcasting career.</p><p>This run doesn't have an end in sight. Djokovic has secured the No. 1 ranking for at least another month, despite constantly changing ranking rules that have massively benefitted his chief rivals. Djokovic didn't just break Federer's record today. He is beginning the process of smashing that record. </p>Second Serbhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08919114104091280616noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8084601161020824627.post-71561639206513087362021-02-26T20:56:00.001-08:002021-02-26T20:56:37.977-08:00The Case For Pete Sampras As GOAT<p> I'm as surprised as anyone for what the title of this blog post ended up being. I did not expect the results of this study to be so lop-sided. I thought this would favor Roger Federer or maybe Rafael Nadal. Instead, it's Pete Sampras who comes out looking really good.</p><p>In the Open Era of the ATP, there have been 26 different players who have ascended into the top spot of the sport's rankings. What I wanted to do was analyze the head-to-head records of every one of those 26 players against each other.</p><p>In the GOAT debate, we often talk about the head-to-head records of Federer, Nadal and Novak Djokovic. This comparison leaves Djokovic head and shoulders above his two closest rivals. However, Federer has had many rivals in his career, and his wins against those players shouldn't be discounted. That was the motivation behind doing the research, but the result was not what I expected.</p><p>Before I get into the overall numbers, I want to point out one interesting stat. In all these head-to-head comparisons, the older players in each matchup had a total of 808 wins compared to the 690 wins for the younger players. In other words, the older player has a significant advantage and should lead the head-to-head record against his younger rival. This makes it all the more impressive that Djokovic leads the head-to-head record against his elder rivals Federer and Nadal.</p><p>Here are the leaders in win percentage against players who were ranked No. 1 at some point in their career:</p><p>1. Pete Sampras - 66.9%<br />2. Rafael Nadal - 61.1%<br />3. Bjorn Borg - 60.3%<br />4. Boris Becker - 60.0%<br />5. Roger Federer - 59.4%<br />6. Ivan Lendl - 58.3%<br />7. Novak Djokovic - 56.9%<br />8. Andre Agassi - 53.3%<br />9. Lleyton Hewitt - 50.0%<br />9. Gustavo Kuerten - 50.0%</p><p>These are the leaders in total wins:</p><p>1. Roger Federer - 133<br />2. Pete Sampras - 115<br />3. Ivan Lendl - 102<br />4. Rafael Nadal - 99<br />5. Andre Agassi - 97<br />6. Novak Djokovic - 95<br />7. Boris Becker - 87<br />8. Stefan Edberg - 74<br />9. John McEnroe - 68<br />10. Lleyton Hewitt - 67</p><p>Thomas Muster goes down as the worst No. 1 in ATP history based on these numbers, which is nothing to be ashamed of. He won just 31.6 percent of his matches against No. 1s and he has another loss coming his way if Dominic Thiem ever reaches No. 1 in the world.</p><p>For Sampras, the numbers are staggering. He doesn't have such a high winning percentage because of a small sample size. He also has the second most wins of any player. Sampras collected wins against 17 of the other 25 world No. 1s. The only one he never beat that he played against was Roger Federer in a five-set match at the very end of Sampras' career.</p><p>Sampras' wins span from Jimmy Connors, who was the third player to reach the top of the rankings all the way to Andy Roddick, who was the 23rd. Sampras got double-digit wins against five different players: Boris Becker, Jim Courier, Andre Agassi, Yevgeny Kafelnikov and Patrick Rafter. The only one to return the favor was Agassi.</p><p>Of the 17 world No. 1s that Sampras played against, only three have a winning record against him: Roger Federer, Lleyton Hewitt and Marat Safin. None of them ever played him more than nine times.</p><p>When it comes to the best playing against the best, Pete Sampras simply is the best. That's why he is still the greatest tennis player of all time.</p>Second Serbhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08919114104091280616noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8084601161020824627.post-54918053382514228372020-11-26T15:58:00.002-08:002021-06-15T06:47:51.639-07:00Best Year In Tennis History<p>At this point, the only thing I write about on this blog anymore is the GOAT debate. It is a fascinating topic right now as Djokovic, Federer and Nadal now hold almost every record in tennis, yet are all still active as of right now.</p><p>One of the most challenging parts of GOAT debates is comparing players from different eras. For example, is it more impressive to win a major title or finish the year ranked No. 1 in 2020 than in 1973? I've tried tackling this question in a few different ways. The primary way is to simply assume that it is equally difficult to win majors in any era. I've defended this approach for a long time, because in every season, there are four major titles that can be won and you have to be the best out of 128 players over a two-week span in order to win a major.</p><p>I still think this is fundamentally the correct approach, but there is some room for nuance. It is impossible for the level of competition among the top players to be exactly equal every single year. However, measuring the difference is virtually impossible.</p><p>I've tried to use a new method to measure how strong a given year's level of competition was. Almost all majors are won by players in the top-10, and making the year-end top-10 is fairly easy for any serious GOAT candidate. So for this measurement, I've limited my analysis to top-10 players.</p><p>The first step is to assign points to each player for where they finish each year of their career in the rankings since the 1973 season. They get 15 points for finishing No. 1, 14 points for finishing No. 2, etc. with the cut off at the top-10. This gives each player a sum of points that approximates somewhat accurately where each player ranks in the all-time standings. These were the final rankings using this method.</p><p>1. Roger Federer<br />2. Rafael Nadal<br />3. Jimmy Connors<br />4. Novak Djokovic<br />5. Andre Agassi<br />6. Ivan Lendl<br />7. Pete Sampras<br />8. Boris Becker<br />9. John McEnroe<br />10. Stefan Edberg<br /></p><p>This is certainly not the correct top-10 in the GOAT rankings, but it is a good-enough approximation. The main reason this method works is that it does not take into consideration which era a player is from, but compares each player against their own era to determine their value.</p><p>The next step is to measure the career accomplishments as defined above of all of the players in the top-10 of every season. The season with the top-10 that had the greatest career accomplishments could be considered the best year in tennis history. A better way to measure this could easily be created, but this should create a useful starting point. Here are the final rankings I got for the best years in tennis history.</p><p>1. 2013<br />2. 2015<br />3. 2009<br />4. 2014<br />5. 2008<br />6. 2012<br />7. 2010<br />8. 1992<br />9. 1985<br />10. 1987<br /><br />It is no surprise that 2013 topped the list. Although the order of the top-10 that year is a little surprising, the list of players that compose the top-10 is very strong: Nadal, Djokovic, Ferrer, Murray, Del Potro, Federer, Berdych, Wawrinka, Gasquet and Tsonga.</p><p>The earliest season to make the list is 1985, which also had a very strong top-7 that was made up of: Lendl, McEnroe, Wilander, Connors, Edberg, Becker and Noah. In 1987, those same seven players were all in the top-10 along with Pat Cash.</p><p>The three years that Federer most dominated tennis were 2005-07. The 2007 season ranked as the 12th best in tennis history, while 2005 ranked 14th and 2006 was all the way down in 35th place.</p><p>Djokovic's peak years were from 2008 to 2015. All of those seasons rank among the 11 best seasons in tennis history.</p><p>The seasons from 2016 to 2020 will likely move up on the list since the players ranked in the top-10 in those seasons have not finished racking up career accomplishments. A season that has Tsitsipas, Zverev and Medvedev in the top-10 will likely look a lot stronger when we look back 10 years from now.</p><p>I've spilled quite a bit of ink in the past comparing what Djokovic did in 2015 to what Federer did in 2006. I think without even analyzing the strength of competition, it is already clear that Djokovic had the better season. However, when you consider the strength of competition that the two players faced, the gap grows much bigger. The 2015 season ranks second in the open era compared to the 2006 season which ranks 35th out of 48 seasons.</p><p>The biggest take away from this study is to reconfirm what has been already been proven several other ways: the competition that Federer faced in his peak was not nearly as strong as the competition Djokovic faced during the peak of his career. While this doesn't take away from the records that Federer has accumulated during his career, it does show that Djokovic's grand slam titles and weeks at No. 1 during his career are more impressive than the ones that Federer has accumulated.</p>Second Serbhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08919114104091280616noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8084601161020824627.post-79567341149402906652020-02-11T18:08:00.004-08:002020-02-11T18:08:50.219-08:00Djokovic's Hurdles To 311 Weeks At No. 1Now that Novak Djokovic is back at No. 1 in the ATP rankings, the climb to 311 weeks as the world No. 1 is back on. Roger Federer set the record at 310 weeks, meaning Djokovic needs to remain at the top of the rankings for another 33 weeks to tie Federer's record. This would arguably be the greatest record on a long list of accomplishments for the 17-time major champion.<br />
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Djokovic needs to remain at the top of the rankings until September 28 in order to tie Federer's record and there are a handful of different challenges that Djokovic will face as he tries to remain on top while defending 5,175 ranking points during that span.<br />
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The most immediate threat to Djokovic's No. 1 ranking is Rafael Nadal, who is currently just 325 points behind in the rankings. The two players that have played each other in professional tennis matches more than any duo in the open era have almost exactly the same amount of points to defend between now and the conclusion of the Masters Series 1000 in Madrid. That means Nadal has a three-month span to try to recover the No. 1 ranking.<br />
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Here is how many ranking points have been earned by the top players in the nine months since last year's tournament in Madrid:<br />
<br />
1. Novak Djokovic - 8,405<br />
2. Rafael Nadal - 8,090<br />
3. Dominic Thiem - 5,085<br />
3. Daniil Medvedev - 5,085<br />
5. Roger Federer - 4,850<br />
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If Nadal does not retake the No.1 ranking during his 3-month window, Daniil Medvedev will actually become Djokovic's biggest threat to the top ranking. Medvedev became much less of a threat after his early exit at the Australian Open, but his run in the United States last summer gives him a large sum of ranking points that he won't have to defend for a while.<br />
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Here are the ranking points earned by each player since last year's tournament in Hamburg:<br />
<br />
1. Novak Djokovic - 5,085<br />
2. Daniil Medvedev - 4,795<br />
3. Rafael Nadal - 4,370<br />
4. Dominic Thiem - 3,775<br />
5. Stefanos Tsitsipas - 2,695<br />
6. Alexander Zverev - 2,610<br />
7. Roger Federer - 2,250<br />
8. Andrey Rublev - 1,640<br />
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If Djokovic can remain the world No. 1 through the conclusion of Hamburg, his next biggest threat will become Dominic Thiem. Of course, a lot can change over the next five months. However, as of now, Thiem is the player who is the closest to Djokovic in terms of ranking points won that won't have to be defended until October.<br />
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These are the ranking points earned since October 2019:<br />
<br />
1. Novak Djokovic - 4,545<br />
2. Dominic Thiem - 3,335<br />
3. Stefanos Tsitsipas - 2,485<br />
4. Alexander Zverev - 1,990<br />
5. Roger Federer - 1,620<br />
6. Daniil Medvedev - 1,445<br />
7. Rafael Nadal - 1,370<br />
8. Andrey Rublev - 1,165<br />
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Nadal will probably remain Djokovic's biggest threat for the No. 1 ranking throughout the 2020 season, because the points he will accumulate on clay could put him back in striking distance in September. However, Nadal's path back to No. 1 is hurt by how few points he has earned since the 2019 US Open. He has to strike while the opportunity is there. Meanwhile, a strong clay season for Medvedev or Thiem could spell trouble for Djokovic as the next generation of players may get their long-awaited chance to finally dethrone the greatest trio of tennis players that the sport has ever seen.Second Serbhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08919114104091280616noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8084601161020824627.post-87938581666044329772019-08-21T00:37:00.003-07:002019-08-21T00:37:40.038-07:00Top 20 Under 20: Where are they now?Just over five years ago, I made my <a href="http://secondserb.blogspot.com/2014/07/top-20-under-20.html" target="_blank">first</a> of a series of posts called "Top 20 Under 20" where I rated the 20 most promising teenagers on the ATP. Now seems like a good time to reflect on these rankings and see what I got right and what I got wrong.<br />
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I will comment on the 20 players in the original order that I ranked them on July 17, 2014.<br />
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<b>1. Nick Kyrgios </b>- I put Kyrgios at No. 1 since this ranking came out shortly after he had defeated No. 1 Rafael Nadal to reach the Wimbledon quarterfinals. At the time, he was the only teenager in the top 100. Since then Kyrgios has only reached one other grand slam quarterfinal and he has failed to do so in the last 16 majors that he has played in. There are now eight players ranked ahead of Kyrgios that are younger than him. He has had flashes of brilliance over the last five years, but his career has been a disappointment with his tantrums being the most defining aspect of his career so far.<br />
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<b>2. Alexander Zverev - </b>Zverev is now ranked sixth in the world and is the second-highest ranked player of anyone that was a teenager five years ago. He has won 11 titles in his career, including a very impressive four elite titles. He has been in a bit of a slump in 2019, but he still has the most impressive list of career accomplishments of anyone on this list at this.<br />
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<b>3. Borna Coric </b>- The Croat just reached a career-high ranking of 12 last week, which gives him the fifth-best ranking of any player that was a teenager five years ago. He has two titles to his name and a very impressive 12 wins against top-10 players. Coric has had a steady growth throughout his career without any single big breakthrough moment.<br />
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<b>4. Andrey Rublev</b> - Throughout the series, I was more optimistic about Rublev than most other people, so I felt somewhat vindicated by his win over Roger Federer last week. Still, he has only won one title and has a career-high ranking of 31. Injuries have been an issue, so there is still plenty of reason to believe that he will be a top-10 player in the future.<br />
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<b>5. Christian Garin </b>- This looked like a massive whiff for a long time, but Garin is finally starting to make a name for himself on tour. He has won two titles this year and has a career-high ranking of No. 32 in the world after breaking into the top 100 for the first time late last year. At this point, he looks like he'll never be more than a clay specialist with 28 of his 34 career wins coming on dirt, but he can make a decent career for himself that way.<br />
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<b>6. Jared Donaldson </b>- Just a year after getting into the top-50 in tennis, Donaldson had a right knee injury that has kept him away from tennis for over five months now as his ranking has slipped to No. 713 in the world. He has 47 career wins and is still only 22 years old. It will be a long road back for him, but his career isn't necessarily over.<br />
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<b>7. Frances Tiafoe - </b>Unlike five years ago, we now know the right way to spell Frances. Earlier this year, he was ranked No. 29 in the world, but has since dropped back down to No. 52. Last year, he won his only career title to date in Delray Beach and he also reached the final in Estoril. He has struggled at the majors, but has proven to be a tough draw in a best-of-3 match. Tiafoe was a little overrated at No. 7 on this list, but not by much.<br />
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<b>8. Thanasi Kokkinakis </b>- Most people had Kokkinakis in their top 3 or 5 this time five years ago, so I felt like I was being bold putting him as low as No. 8. Yet I still overrated him. Kokkinakis has not reached the top 50 in the rankings yet and is currently outside the top 200. Injuries have been the main reason that he hasn't lived up to potential. Kokkinakis has finally been healthy over the last month, so maybe now he can start to make a comeback.<br />
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<b>9. Nikola Milojevic </b>- This is another one that looked like a big bust until recently. Don't get me wrong, the former junior No. 1 is still a long way away from living up to expectations, but there have been some positive signs over the last year that he will eventually be a regular on the tour-level. He won his second career Challenger title this month and is back in the top 150.<br />
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<b>10. Stefan Kozlov</b> - The American has been a bust so far, but is also only 21-years old, so it's way too soon to give up on Kozlov. Still, it has been two and a half years since he reached his career-high ranking of 119 and he is now outside the top 500 despite having played in 14 events this year. All 14 events have been played in North America, which is great for saving on travel expenses, but a nightmare for trying to get ranking points.<br />
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<b>11. Hyeon Chung </b>- We finally get to the first underrated player on this list. While Chung has had a massive slump in 2019, he did get into the top 20 in the world last year. He has 81 career tour-level wins and there is no reason to think he won't be back in the top 20 again in the future.<br />
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<b>12. Noah Rubin </b>- My American bias was showing on this one. I never listed Rubin this high again on my list, although his career trajectory hasn't been that bad. He still hasn't cracked the top 100 and is currently No. 195, but he did qualify for Wimbledon this year.<br />
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<b>13. Kyle Edmund </b>- The Brit was definitely underrated on this list. He is the tenth-highest ranked player of anyone who was a teenager five years ago. He has been ranked as high as No. 14 in the world and has one title to his name. He has 22 grand slam wins, which is near the most of anyone on this list.<br />
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<b>14. Gianluigi Quinzi </b>- This was another bust. Quinzi had an impressive junior career, but it never turned into much on the professional level. He is ranked lower now than he was five years ago and he peaked at No. 142.<br />
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<b>15. Roman Safiullin </b>- The Russian's career so far has been totally derailed by injuries. 2019 will be his first full season as a professional and he is near breaking into the top 200 for the first time. Lots of young Russians are having success right now, and it would be great to see Safiullin join them. He's still only 22 years old.<br />
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<b>16. Yunseong Chung - </b>Despite having not played a single tour-level match at this point in his career, he is ranked No. 259 in the world. So far, Chung has been a bust.<br />
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<b>17. Elias Ymer </b>- Ymer is still trying to get into the top 100. He came very close last year and could do it this year. At 23 years old, I would have expected him to be farther along by now. I'm more optimistic about his younger brother at this point.<br />
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<b>18. Laslo Djere </b>- The Serb has finally started to deliver on all the hype this year. He got as high as No. 27 in the world in June after reaching the third round of Roland Garros where he nearly took out Kei Nishikori. His success has been limited to clay courts, but if you told me five years ago that he had a better career than Garin, I would have been very surprised.<br />
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<b>19. Johan Tatlot </b>- I had nearly forgotten about Tatlot. He still hasn't reached the top 200 yet and hasn't played a single tour-level match, so he's definitely a bust so far.<br />
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<b>20. Nicolas Jarry </b>- The Chilean peaked at No. 8 in his junior career, so most people didn't have high expectations for Jarry as a professional, so I'm going to give myself some credit on this one. He is currently ranked No. 69 with a career-high ranking of No. 38. He also won his first career title this year in Bastad.<br />
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<b>Players missing</b>: Lorenzo Sonego, Cameron Norrie, Yoshihito Nishioka, Matteo Berrettini, Karen Khachanov, Daniil Medvedev, Andrey Bublik, Hubert Hurkacz, Ugo Humbert, Reilly Opelka, Taylor Fritz, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Casper Ruud, Denis Shapovalov, Alex De Minaur, Miomir Kecmanovic, Felix Auger-Alliasime.<br />
<br />
Of those players that were missing, the following were listed on later editions of the top 20 under 20 series: Nishioka, Khachanov, Bublik, Opelka, Fritz, Tsitsipas, Ruud, Shapovalov, De Minaur, Kecmanovic, Auger-Alliasime.<br />
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Daniil Medvedev is currently the highest ranked player that was a teenager five years ago. He was never listed in my top 20, which either shows how bad my lists were or how he came out of nowhere. His junior ranking peaked at No. 13 and he didn't reach the top 100 until he was 20. He did receive consideration for my list, but he never made the cut. He has definitely proven me wrong!Second Serbhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08919114104091280616noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8084601161020824627.post-739623239693241502019-08-15T22:10:00.001-07:002019-08-15T22:10:22.019-07:00In three years, nothing has changedOne of my favorite series on this blog was comparing the top tennis countries in the world. It's been nearly three years since I posted an update on this series, and that was when France finally surpassed Spain as the top tennis country in the world. With only a couple young Spanish players on the rise, that seemed like a permanent switch, but right now, the standings are right back where they were three years ago.<br />
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The top three countries are now Spain, Serbia, France and United States in that order, identical to exactly three years ago.<br />
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Here are the full standings based on the combined ranking points of every player in the top 140:<br />
1. Spain - 17,693<br />
2. Serbia - 16,956<br />
3. France - 13,385<br />
4. United States - 10,712<br />
5. Italy - 9860<br />
6. Switzerland - 9592<br />
7. Argentina - 8580<br />
8. Germany - 8527<br />
9. Russia - 7396<br />
10. Australia - 7043<br />
11. Japan - 6070<br />
12. Canada - 5446<br />
13. Austria - 5413<br />
14. Croatia - 4810<br />
15. Greece - 3455<br />
16. Great Britain - 3320<br />
17. South Africa - 2682<br />
18. Chile - 2182<br />
19. Georgia - 2020<br />
20. Kazakhstan - 1866<br />
21. Belgium - 1815<br />
22. Poland - 1660<br />
23. Slovakia - 1495<br />
24. Hungary - 1323<br />
25. Moldova - 1132<br />
26. Portugal - 1045<br />
27. Uruguay - 1013<br />
28. Korea - 994<br />
29. Sweden - 980<br />
30. Norway - 951<br />
31. Bulgaria - 802<br />
32. Belarus - 799<br />
33. Lithuania - 765<br />
34. Romania - 622<br />
35. Bolivia - 618<br />
36. Slovenia - 605<br />
37. India - 600<br />
38. Tunisia - 544<br />
39. Brazil - 532<br />
40. Czech Republic - 530<br />
41. Bosnia & Herzegovina - 530<br />
42. Netherlands - 446<br />
43. Latvia - 442<br />
44. Chinese Taipei - 405<br />
45. Uzbekistan - 392<br />
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A few notes on this list...<br />
<br />
-45 different countries rated in the top 140 is the most that I have ever recorded.<br />
-The highest ranked No. 2 from any country is from Russia<br />
-The highest ranked No. 3 is from Argentina<br />
-The most well-represented country is France with 13 players in the top 140<br />
-Greece, Chile and Georgia are all in the top 20 after having not been ranked at all for many years.<br />
-Great Britain and Czech Republic have made massive dives in the rankings<br />
-The first rankings I ever did in 2012 included Ukraine, Colombia, Cyprus, Finland, Luxembourg, Estonia and Israel. None of those countries are represented in the top 140 anymore.Second Serbhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08919114104091280616noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8084601161020824627.post-59309155682813033502019-08-13T16:56:00.004-07:002021-06-15T06:41:44.931-07:00Djokovic Reaches Milestone In Cincinnati<br />
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I don’t want to waste your time, so I’ll get right to the
point. With his win today, Novak Djokovic became the third-most successful
player in the history of the Cincinnati Masters Series tournament, making him
the first player in tennis history to rank in the top three at all nine masters
series tournaments.<o:p></o:p></div>
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This is based on the same metric that I have used in
previous posts, which is total ranking points earned. The formula is adjusted
to the current ranking formula so that a quarterfinal appearance in Monte Carlo
is worth 180 points regardless of whether it happened in 1994 or 2019.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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In his career, Djokovic has now earned 4,605 points in
Cincinnati, surpassing Michael Chang at 4,570 points. In the history of Cincinnati,
which is Djokovic’s second worst tournament, he now only trails Roger Federer
and Pete Sampras.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
Federer is in the top three at eight of the nine tournaments,
missing only Monte Carlo, where he ranks fourth behind Rafael Nadal, Thomas
Muster and Djokovic. Rafael Nadal is among the top three at five of the tournaments,
cracking the top-3 players in Canada last week with his title. He is also among
the top three at Indian Wells, Monte Carlo, Madrid and Rome.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
Djokovic is the most successful player at three of the
Masters 1000s, which is tied for most with Nadal. Federer is the top player at two of
the Masters Series events and Andre Agassi is the best player in the history of
Miami.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
Here is a breakdown of where Djokovic ranks at all 14
elite events.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
First (3): Canada, Shanghai, Paris<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
Second (6): Australian Open, Indian Wells, Miami, Monte
Carlo, Rome, Year-End Finals<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
Third (3): Madrid, Wimbledon, Cincinnati<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
Fourth (2): Roland Garros, US Open<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
The same breakdown for Federer<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
First (5): Australian Open, Indian Wells, Wimbledon,
Cincinnati, Year-End Finals<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
Second (3): Madrid, Rome, US Open<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
Third (4): Miami, Roland Garros, Shanghai, Paris<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
Fourth (2): Monte Carlo, Canada<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
And for Nadal<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
First (4): Monte Carlo, Madrid, Rome, Roland Garros<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
Second (1): Canada<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
Third (1): Indian Wells<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
Fourth (1): Shanghai<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
Fifth or lower (7): Australian Open, Miami, Wimbledon,
Cincinnati, US Open, Paris, Year-End Finals <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
Looking at the GOAT debate from this perspective might
make someone wonder why Nadal is even in the conversation. There are six elite tournaments
in which Nadal isn’t even among the five best players in the history of that
tournament. Meanwhile, Djokovic and Federer are inside the top four in all 14
tournaments. Djokovic will likely finish his career inside the top three in all
14 tournaments.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
No single metric can resolve the GOAT debate, but based
on this metric, Djokovic is well on his way to finishing his career as the GOAT.</div>
Second Serbhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08919114104091280616noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8084601161020824627.post-85900932856020339212019-07-24T22:51:00.004-07:002019-07-24T22:51:54.793-07:00Career Masters PerformancesFour years ago, I began <a href="https://secondserb.blogspot.com/2015/08/measuring-masters-dominance.html" target="_blank">measuring how many ranking points players have earned in their career at the nine Masters Series 1000 events</a>. I am now reposting it with updated stats to see how players have progressed, since it has been over two years since I updated the original post.<br />
<br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 15.4px;">I found the sum total of ranking points earned by all of the top players since 1990 at each of the Masters Series events that they played in. The totals were based on the current ranking system: W-1000, RU-600, SF-360, QF-180, R16-90, R32-45, R64-20, and all first round losses were worth 10 points unless it entrance was based on a wildcard.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 15.4px;">Keep in mind that players who started their peak years before 1990 could be drastically underrated in categories that have to do with totals, and could be very overrated in categories that have to do with averages.</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 15.4px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 15.4px;">Career Masters Ranking Points Earned:</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 15.4px;">1. Rafael Nadal 54,950</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 15.4px;">2. Novak Djokovic 52,565</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 15.4px;">3. Roger Federer 52,485</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 15.4px;">4. Andy Murray 28,230</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 15.4px;">5. Andre Agassi 27,745</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 15.4px;">6. Pete Sampras 24,420</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 15.4px;">7. Tomas Berdych 16,655</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 15.4px;">8. David Ferrer 16,560</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 15.4px;">9. Andy Roddick 15,755</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 15.4px;">10. Michael Chang 15,405</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 15.4px;">11. Thomas Muster 12,810</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 15.4px;">12. Stefan Edberg 12,695</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 15.4px;">13. Boris Becker 12,671</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 15.4px;">14. Jim Courier 12,600</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 15.4px;">15. Gustavo Kuerten 12,150</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 15.4px;">16. Lleyton Hewitt 11,865</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 15.4px;">17. Carlos Moya 11,570</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 15.4px;">18. Stan Wawrinka 11,375</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 15.4px;">19. Marcelo Rios 11,370</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 15.4px;">20. Goran Ivanisevic 11,360</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 15.4px;">Average Ranking Points Earned per Tournament: </span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 15.4px;">1. Rafael Nadal 473.7</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 15.4px;">2. Novak Djokovic 473.6</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 15.4px;">3. Roger Federer 391.68</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 15.4px;">4. Andre Agassi 298.3</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 15.4px;">5. Pete Sampras 294.2</span><br />
6. Andy Murray 291<br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 15.4px;">7. Stefan Edberg 275</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 15.4px;">8. Boris Becker 248</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 15.4px;">9. Thomas Muster 241</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 15.4px;">10. Andy Roddick 212</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 15.4px;">11. Kei Nishikori 203.5</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 15.4px;">12. Marcelo Rios 199</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 15.4px;">13. Milos Raonic 182.9</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 15.4px;">14. Gustavo Kuerten 181</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 15.4px;">15. Michael Chang 181</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 15.4px;">16. Jim Courier 177</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 15.4px;">17. Lleyton Hewitt 160</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 15.4px;">18. Patrick Rafter 159</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 15.4px;">19. Yevgeny Kafelnikov 145.3</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="color: #222222; font-family: Times New Roman, Times, FreeSerif, serif;"><span style="background-color: white; font-size: 15.4px;">20. Sergi Bruguera 142.4</span></span><br />
<br />
Nadal has finally surpassed Djokovic in average points, and holds a very slim margin. It's amazing how close these two players are after such long and different careers. Nadal is certainly the best player in Masters Series history as of right now, but that could change even before the end of the 2019 season.<br />
<br />
Most Points Earned at One Tournament:<br />
1. Rafael Nadal 12,590 (Monte Carlo)<br />
2. Rafael Nadal 10,750 (Rome)<br />
3. Roger Federer 8780 (Indian Wells)<br />
4. Rafael Nadal 8565 (Monte Carlo)<br />
5. Andre Agassi 8220 (Miami)<br />
6. Roger Federer 8100 (Cincinnati)<br />
7. Novak Djokovic 7900 (Rome)<br />
8. Novak Djokovic 6830 (Miami)<br />
9. Novak Djokovic 6745 (Indian Wells)<br />
10. Roger Federer 6355 (Miami)<br />
<br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 15.4px;">There is one more way of looking at the numbers presented in this form. The first two categories dealt with totals and averages. Averages are good for looking at how good a player is in the tournaments that they played. Total is good for looking at the longevity of that success in tournaments.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 15.4px;">This final list looks at a combination of the two. It takes the total amount of points won and subtracted from that is the number of Masters Series tournaments played multiplied by 171, which was the average amount of points won per tournament of the players that were researched. That means that an average score on this list would be zero for the 46 players that were researched.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 15.4px;">Career Points Earned Adjusted</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 15.4px;">1. Rafael Nadal 35,114</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 15.4px;">2. Novak Djokovic 33,584</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 15.4px;">3. Roger Federer 29,571</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 15.4px;">4. Andre Agassi 11,842</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 15.4px;">5. Andy Murray 11,643</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 15.4px;">6. Pete Sampras 10,227</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 15.4px;">7. Stefan Edberg 4829</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 15.4px;">8. Boris Becker 3950</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 15.4px;">9. Thomas Muster 3747</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 15.4px;">10. Andy Roddick 3101</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 15.4px;">11. Marcelo Rios 1623</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 15.4px;">12. Kei Nishikori 1397</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 15.4px;">13. Michael Chang 870</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 15.4px;">14. Gustavo Kuerten 693</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 15.4px;">15. Milos Raonic 581</span><br />
<br />Second Serbhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08919114104091280616noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8084601161020824627.post-44844376084835132932019-07-24T11:10:00.001-07:002019-09-06T16:11:02.632-07:00Race To 311 WeeksRoger Federer has been the No. 1 singles player in the ATP for a record 310 weeks in his career, setting that record by winning Wimbledon in 2012. In the seven years since then, that record has gone unchallenged. However, Novak Djokovic is currently getting himself in position to challenge Federer's record.<br />
<br />
Djokovic has now been the No. 1 player in the world for 261 weeks, which is the fifth most in tennis history. He is now just 50 weeks away from breaking Federer's record, meaning he needs to stay No. 1 in the world until July 6, 2020. That is also the date of Manic Monday for the 134th edition of Wimbledon. Therefore, if Djokovic stays ranked No. 1 in the world from now until the start of the next Wimbledon, he will break Federer's record.<br />
<br />
Every year, the ATP tracks the Race to London rankings to measure only the ranking points that will count toward qualification for the year-end finals. However, Djokovic is racing toward a different tournament in London, so below is the total number of ranking points accumulated by each player toward being the No. 1 player in the world on July 6, 2020.<br />
<br />
Race To Wimbledon Rankings (As of Sept. 6, 2019)<br />
1. Daniil Medvedev - 3190<br />
2. Novak Djokovic - 2540<br />
3. Rafael Nadal - 2260<br />
4. Roger Federer - 1650<br />
5. David Goffin - 1150<br />
6. Roberto Bautista Agut - 1135<br />
7. Matteo Berrettini - 910<br />
8. Diego Schwartzman - 835<br />
9. Andrey Rublev - 770<br />
9. Grigor Dimitrov - 770<br />
11. Gael Monfils - 740<br />
12. Nikoloz Basilashvili - 735<br />
13. Nick Kyrgios - 680<br />
14. Guido Pella - 595<br />
15. Alex De Minaur - 575<br />
16. Alexander Zverev - 560<br />
16. Richard Gasquet - 560<br />
18. Dominic Theim - 540<br />
19. Albert Ramos Vinolas - 539<br />
20. Benoit Paire - 520<br />
20. John Isner - 520<br />
22. Karen Khachanov - 515<br />
23. Stan Wawrinka - 495<br />
24. Hubert Hurkacz - 470<br />
24. Kei Nishikori - 470<br />
26. Sam Querrey - 435<br />
27. Pablo Carreno Busta - 427<br />
28. Fabio Fognini - 415<br />
28. Marin Cilic - 415<br />
30. Taylor Fritz - 375<br />
31. Dusan Lajovic - 370<br />
32. Pablo Andujar - 335<br />
33. Joao Sousa - 335<br />
34. Dominik Koepfer - 325<br />
34. Tennys Sandgren - 325<br />
34. Lucas Pouille - 325<br />
37. Yoshihito Nishioka - 321<br />
38. Juan Ignacio Londero - 315<br />
38. Jan-Lennard Struff - 315<br />
38. Miomir Kecmanovic - 315<br />
41. Ugo Humbert - 300<br />
42. Daniel Evans - 295<br />
43. Denis Shapovalov - 280<br />
43. Steve Johnson - 280<br />
45. Milos Raonic - 270<br />
45. Alexander Bublik - 270<br />
45. Nicolas Jarry - 270<br />
48. Yuichi Sugita - 266<br />
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Being No. 1 at Wimbledon next year only matters if Djokovic remains No. 1 up until then. Rafael Nadal has the best chance to surpass Djokovic before Wimbledon next year and his best chance to do so could be at the Australian Open. Since the Austalian Open, Djokovic has earned 5,175 points, while Nadal has earned 6,745 points. That means that Nadal's best chance to catch Djokovic will be between Paris-Bercy and the Australian Open.Second Serbhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08919114104091280616noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8084601161020824627.post-5957832281301936072019-06-02T17:36:00.001-07:002019-06-02T22:31:27.302-07:00GOAT RésumésAmong tennis fans, there are those who love the GOAT debate and there are those who hate the GOAT debate. I am unashamedly a part of the first group.<br />
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Sport is about two teams or individuals competing against each other two see which one is better. At a tournament, the purpose is to find out which team or individual is greatest. In an individual sport like tennis, the question "who is the greatest ever?" is the ultimate question. To not even ask the question would be to miss the whole point of the sport.</div>
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Some people say that it cannot be determined who the GOAT is. In response, I would ask who is better between Novak Djokovic and Raul Ramirez? Everyone says that Djokovic is better. At this point, they have conceded that it is possible to compare two players from different generations. That doesn't mean that all will agree on who the GOAT is or will agree on an objective manner to make the determination, but it is clear that a GOAT does exist. Therefore, it is meaningful to try to determine and debate who that GOAT is.</div>
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There is one other point that I want to make in this preamble. All tennis generations must be treated as equal. The sport has changed so much over the last 50 years in the Open Era. The way to win in tennis has changed significantly. However, the definition of success has never changed. Winning is success and success is winning. That has never changed. If we define a tennis generation as 10 years, then in every generation, there have been 40 grand slams won, 90 masters or WCT titles won, 10 year-end championships won, 522 weeks at No. 1, and 10 year-end No. 1's. These measuring sticks of success remain the same throughout all generations of tennis players, so they are the key ingredients for a GOAT resume.</div>
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Thus concludes my introduction. Here is the resume for each of the GOAT candidates:</div>
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<b>Rod Laver</b></div>
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Resume: The case for Laver is an interesting one because of when his career was played. He was an amateur for seven years, then he was banned from 21 majors for having turned pro before the Open Era began in 1968. Players from before 1968 are usually not taken into consideration in the GOAT debate, so how we understand Rod Laver's accomplishments before 1968 is still an open question. How impressive was it for him to win the Grand Slam in 1962 as an amateur? After turning pro, he became the only player in the Open Era to win the Calendar Grand Slam in 1969. He finished his career in the Open Era with five grand slams. He is like the Babe Ruth of tennis in his legendary status. Like Babe Ruth's 60 home runs in a season, Rod Laver's record of four-consecutive grand slam titles won was a record that stood for several decades. It has become the ultimate achievement that every other GOAT candidate has attempted to repeat.</div>
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Drawbacks: If you only consider what Laver did in the Open Era, he certainly isn't the GOAT. His highest computer ranking was No. 3 and he only won five majors. If not for what he did before the Open Era, he wouldn't even get consideration. To argue for Laver as the GOAT requires treating his amateur achievements as equally valid as his Open Era achievements.</div>
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<b>Jimmy Connors</b></div>
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Resume: Most people don't give Connors much thought, but he certainly deserves consideration. At the time that he retired, he was considered by some to be the GOAT, since he held several records and was arguably the best player of his era (1974-83). During that decade, he was the No. 1 player in the world for over half of the weeks and had the second-most majors won of any player in the Open Era at the time. To this day, he holds the records for matches won and titles won. If greatness is about winning matches, then Connors is the greatest. His longevity in his career should be admired as well.</div>
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Drawbacks: Connors' case for being the GOAT is a lot less compelling when you consider that during the peak of his career, there was another player who won three more majors than he did. Also, outside of his peak 10 years, there was a lot of mediocrity. While Connors won a lot of matches, he also lost a lot of matches. He simply played a lot of matches. In the majors, he consistently made it to the final rounds of majors, but at one point he had an eight-match losing streak at major semifinals.</div>
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<b>Bjorn Borg</b></div>
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Resume: When looking at achievements per tournament played, nobody is close to Bjorn Borg. The clearest example is average ranking points (based on current rankings formula) earned per grand slam tournament played, Borg is far ahead of everybody else at 1,148. That means that reaching the final of a grand slam was just an average performance for Borg during his career. Nobody else is within 200 points of Borg in that category. He won 11 grand slams, which was the record at the time, and was the No. 1 player in the world for 108 out of the 121 weeks that made up the prime of his career.</div>
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Drawbacks: There are a lot of "what if..." questions that could be asked about Borg. He was still young when he retired at 25 years old. Had he kept playing, he surely would won more titles, but likely dropped off in the degree to which he dominated the sport. To make a real case for Borg to be considered the GOAT, you have to assume he could have continued dominating. However, possible dominance isn't the same as real dominance, so his case for the designation as the GOAT takes a serious hit.</div>
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<b>John McEnroe</b></div>
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Resume: McEnroe is a popular choice among casual tennis fans or sports pundits who only pay attention occasionally. While Borg was dominating tennis, McEnroe managed to win half of his matches against Borg, taking 7 of 14 contests. He also won all of his last three matches against Borg, which is considered by some to be the reason that Borg retired so easily. To end the career of another GOAT candidate certainly merits some consideration. McEnroe finished with seven grand slam titles and 170 weeks at No. 1. In 1984, he won both Wimbledon and the US Open in what was one of the greatest single seasons in tennis history. Usually when talking about the GOAT, fans are referring to singles success, but if you take McEnroe's doubles success into consideration, his case becomes more interesting. He won nine grand slams in doubles and reached the top ranking in the world. Most other GOAT candidates didn't even play doubles regularly.</div>
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Drawbacks: Inconsistency and a short period of dominance both hurt McEnroe. His peak lasted only six years and it had a big dip in the middle of it. If you compared the best six years of all the GOAT candidates, McEnroe still wouldn't lead in many statistical categories. He is remembered because of his on-court antics and he has remained in the public eye since retiring, but there are better players to remember from tennis' past.</div>
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<b>Pete Sampras</b></div>
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Resume: At the time he retired, most tennis pundits considered Sampras to be the GOAT. He had the most grand slams won, the most weeks at No. 1 in the world and the most wins against top-10 opponents. Sampras had no rivals, because he dominated all of his opponents. His most serious rival was Andre Agassi, who he beat 20 times in 34 matches. Unlike any other GOAT candidate, he was clearly the best player of his generation, dominating the sport from 1993 to 2000. During those eight years, he was the year-end No. 1 for nearly 70 percent of the weeks and he was the year-end No. 1 six years in a row.</div>
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Drawbacks: Clay creates the biggest hole in Sampras' resume. He always struggled at Roland Garros and never won the title. Where Sampras' resume is strong, Roger Federer's resume is even stronger. Anyone who tries to argue that Sampras is the GOAT will be met by an even better argument for Federer being the GOAT on the exact same grounds. There are few things that Sampras has accomplished that haven't also been done by Federer. Those in the Sampras camp will have to focus on how Sampras dominated all of his rivals and finished as the year-end No. 1 six years in a row. That kind of dominance is unmatched.</div>
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<b>Roger Federer</b></div>
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Resume: I have been among those who have considered Federer the GOAT for a long time, and my mind hasn't been changed yet. The case for Federer is simple. He has won the most grand slams, he has the most weeks at No. 1, he has the most wins against top-10 opponents and he has become the second player ever to win 100 career titles. Federer is one of only five players in the Open Era to achieve the Career Grand Slam and he has earned more ranking points at grand slam events than any other player in tennis history.</div>
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Drawbacks: The charge that Federer played in a weak era is addressed in my introduction to this post. Still, there is something to be said for the fact that he played high-ranked players with a shockingly low frequency for the first half of his career. In the second half of his career, he has been outdone by both Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal. Both of the other GOAT candidates from Federer's era have positive head-to-head records against him. There is an argument to be made that Federer didn't have any serious competition for the first half of his career and he was only the third-best player during the second half of his career.</div>
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<b>Rafael Nadal</b></div>
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Resume: It is an understatement to say that no tennis player has ever dominated a single tournament the way Nadal has dominated Roland Garros. Nadal has won 11 of his 17 majors at Roland Garros and only lost two matches in his career on the Parisian clay. Most people consider Federer to be the GOAT, but Nadal leads the head-to-head series against Federer, 23-15. He has won 17 majors, which is the second-most in tennis history, and he has also won an Olympic gold medal. Nadal doesn't hold many records, but he is second or third in nearly every statistical category, while he does lead in most career Masters Series titles won. </div>
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Drawbacks: Nadal has a losing record against Djokovic, who has beaten Nadal at all four majors. Also, he only has won six majors outside of Roland Garros. No other GOAT candidate has such a lop-sided distribution of grand slam titles. Nadal has been the world No. 1 for 196 weeks, which ranks sixth. Because his dominance has been limited to clay, he hasn't spent as much time atop the rankings as other GOAT candidates and he his longest stint as No. 1 only lasted 56 weeks.</div>
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<b>Novak Djokovic</b></div>
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Resume: Of the three active GOAT candidates, Djokovic is the one who still could add a lot to his resume. He is the current world No. 1 and has won each other last three majors, which seems to indicate that he could still win a few more, even at 32 years old. Like his idol Pete Sampras, Djokovic has a positive head-to-head record against all of his rivals. During his peak years (2011 to present) he has clearly been the best player in the world, holding the No. 1 ranking for 253 weeks and counting, which is well over half of the time. He has finished five seasons as the No. 1 player in the world and is on pace to tie Sampras' record of six at the end of this season. Djokovic has won 15 majors (3rd most) and 201 matches against top-10 opponents (2nd most). He is also only the second player to win four-consecutive majors, joining Rod Laver. Unlike Rafael Nadal, Djokovic's dominance is not limited to one surface. He has won all nine Masters Series titles, all grand slam events and the year-end championships. And unlike Roger Federer, Djokovic has had to face higher-ranked players with great frequency. In every metric that considers opponents' ranking, the Serb comes out on top. Simply put, Djokovic has won against the very best on all surfaces and conditions. Nobody else can say that.</div>
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Drawbacks: While Djokovic has winning records against both Nadal and Federer, his two contemporaries have both won more major titles. The fact that three players in Djokovic's era managed to win more than 14 majors could suggest that winning many majors is perhaps not as difficult as it used to be. Federer has 57 more weeks at No. 1, six more grand slam titles and 17 more wins against top-10 players, so Djokovic still has his work cut out for him.</div>
Second Serbhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08919114104091280616noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8084601161020824627.post-5627642047622653752019-01-28T19:30:00.001-08:002019-07-24T22:13:47.363-07:00Career Grand Slam ResultsAlmost four years ago, I began tracking total ranking points earned at grand slams by all of the top players in the Open Era. I used the current ranking system for all generations, so that there was no advantage given to the current generation.<br />
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It has been a <a href="http://secondserb.blogspot.com/2015/05/measuring-major-dominance.html" target="_blank">long time</a> since I have updated the numbers, and with the GOAT debate being rekindled, now is as good of a time as any to write about this. I do want to be clear about the role I believe that these numbers should play in the GOAT debate. Anyone who says that "whoever has the most majors is the GOAT" is being too simplistic. Although major titles are the ultimate prize in tennis, there is still plenty to play for besides that: Masters 1000 events, year-end championships, ranking, etc.<br />
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Non-major events should also have a place in the GOAT debate. In terms of measuring a players success at majors, it isn't enough to simply count titles, because that treats losing in the first round as the same as losing in the final. More in depth analysis is definitely needed to measure how dominant a player truly is at the majors. Not surprisingly though, players with many grand slam titles will be near the top of all of these lists. So without further preamble, here is what the numbers show.<br />
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<u>Career Total Ranking Points Earned At Majors</u><br />
1. Roger Federer - 69,235<br />
2. Novak Djokovic - 55,105<br />
3. Rafael Nadal - 54,215<br />
4. Jimmy Connors - 40,480<br />
5. Pete Sampras - 40,385<br />
6. Ivan Lendl - 39,890<br />
7. Andre Agassi - 37,675<br />
8. Bjorn Borg - 31,015<br />
9. John McEnroe - 28,760<br />
10. Stefan Edberg - 28,490<br />
11. Andy Murray - 27,970<br />
12. Boris Becker - 26,490<br />
13. Mats Wilander - 25,025<br />
14. Guillermo Vilas - 20,630<br />
15. John Newcombe - 18,210<br />
16. Ken Rosewall - 17,715<br />
17. Jim Courier - 17,620<br />
18. Stan Wawrinka - 16,660<br />
19. Arthur Ashe - 16,295<br />
20. Lleyton Hewitt - 15,975<br />
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<u>Average Ranking Points Earned Per Major</u><br />
1. Bjorn Borg - 1148<br />
2. Rafael Nadal - 951<br />
3. Novak Djokovic - 950<br />
4. Roger Federer - 8999<br />
5. Rod Laver - 851<br />
6. Ken Rosewall - 805<br />
7. Pete Sampras - 721<br />
8. Jimmy Connors - 710<br />
9. John Newcombe - 700<br />
10. Ivan Lendl - 699<br />
11. John McEnroe - 639<br />
12. Andre Agassi - 617<br />
13. Andy Murray - 582<br />
14. Boris Becker - 575<br />
15. Mats Wilander - 568<br />
16. Stefan Edberg - 547<br />
17. Arthur Ashe - 479<br />
18. Jim Courier - 429<br />
19. Guillermo Vilas - 421<br />
20. Jan Kodes - 344<br />
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<u>Most Points Earned At One Major</u><br />
1. Rafael Nadal (Roland Garros) - 24,630<br />
2. Roger Federer (Wimbledon) - 23,035<br />
3. Roger Federer (Australian Open) - 19,050<br />
4. Jimmy Connors (US Open) - 18,720<br />
5. Roger Federer (US Open) - 16,270<br />
6. Novak Djokovic (Australian Open) - 15,505<br />
7. Pete Sampras (Wimbledon) - 15,370<br />
8. Pete Sampras (US Open) - 15,230<br />
9. Novak Djokovic (US Open) - 14,340<br />
10. Ivan Lendl (US Open) - 14,080<br />
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<u>Most Points Earned At Player's Weakest Major</u><br />
1. Roger Federer (Roland Garros) - 10,880<br />
2. Novak Djokovic (Roland Garros) - 10,775<br />
3. Rafael Nadal (Wimbledon) - 9,635<br />
4. Andre Agassi (Wimbledon) - 6,640<br />
5. Ivan Lendl (Wimbledon) - 6,605<br />
6. Andy Murray (Roland Garros) - 5,080<br />
7. Ken Rosewall (Roland Garros) -3,200<br />
7. Jimmy Connors (Australian Open) - 3,200<br />
9. Stefan Edberg (Roland Garros) - 2,930<br />
10. Boris Becker (Roland Garros) - 2,890<br />
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Another category that I came up with four years ago is what I call "adjusted ranking points." Roger Federer has played 14 more majors than anyone else on these lists, so it's no surprise that he has the most total points. Bjorn Borg played 48 majors less than Federer, so it's also no surprise that Borg has the best average. So I wanted to come up with a stat that neither rewarded a player for retiring early nor for continuing to play way passed their prime (like Hewitt and Connors).<br />
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I measured 43 of the top players in tennis history and the average ranking points earned per major for the entire group is currently at 453. Back when I created this stat, the average was at 475, so I left my formula as it was to keep it consistent. The small change won't matter much. The formula is simply total ranking points minus 475 times number of majors played. That means that every time a player failed to reach at least the semifinals, they lost points so that getting upset early in a tournament actually hurts a player. I personally consider this to be the single most definitive measure of grand slam success. I think the fact that the list matches pretty well with fans' intuitions is a strong indicator of its accuracy in representing the success of players.<br />
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<u>Career Points Earned At Majors (Adjusted)</u><br />
1. Roger Federer - 32,660<br />
2. Novak Djokovic - 27,665<br />
3. Rafael Nadal - 27,140<br />
4. Bjorn Borg - 18,190<br />
5. Pete Sampras - 13,785<br />
6. Jimmy Connors - 13,405<br />
7. Ivan Lendl - 12,815<br />
8. Andre Agassi - 8,700<br />
9. John McEnroe - 7,385<br />
10. Ken Rosewall - 7,265<br />
11. John Newcombe - 5,860<br />
12. Rod Laver - 5,650<br />
13. Andy Murray - 5,170<br />
14. Boris Becker - 4,640<br />
15. Mats Wilander - 4,125<br />
16. Stefan Edberg - 3,790<br />
17. Arthur Ashe - 145Second Serbhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08919114104091280616noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8084601161020824627.post-35917567300405919712018-11-14T12:14:00.002-08:002018-11-14T12:20:09.753-08:00GOAT Debate: Strength of ScheduleOne of the worst arguments to make during a GOAT debate is that a certain player belonged to a stronger era than another. It's an argument that is purely subjective, because there is no method of measuring how strong one era is compared to another. However, when comparing players from the same era, it is crucial to compare the quality of opponents that each player faces.<br />
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There are many ways to measure a player's strength of schedule and it has been measured by many people in many different ways. My contribution here should be seen as one more angle from which to view the topic.<br />
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What I want to do is compare the frequency with which Roger Federer, Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal have had to face the other ten best players of their era. So we will need a total of 11 players, and we already have three. Other wise people may have picked a slightly different group of 11 players, but these are the ones I selected to compare along with the Big Three: Andy Murray, Stan Wawrinka, Juan Martin del Potro, Marin Cilic, Kei Nishikori, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Tomas Berdych and David Ferrer.<br />
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Matches played against the group:<br />
1. Djokovic - 284<br />
2. Federer - 250<br />
3. Nadal - 247<br />
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Regardless of who you support in this debate, we can all stop and admire the fact that each of these three have played about 250 matches against the same 10 players in their careers. Djokovic leads this comparison by 34 matches, which is even more impressive when considering that he has played the least professional matches of the trio.<br />
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Percentage of all professional matches in which the opponent is from the group:<br />
1. Djokovic - 28.23%<br />
2. Nadal - 22.31%<br />
3. Federer - 17.37%<br />
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That is a staggering advantage for Djokovic and it begs the question: why such a big gap? I don't think Craig Tiley is behind this one. There are a few reasons for the difference.<br />
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<b>Why Nadal's percentage is lower...</b><br />
Nadal's best surface is clay, which is the surface on which few big events are held. As a result, Nadal puts more small events on his schedule where he is less likely to face the top players in the game. Ferrer also has a similar schedule which is why the Spaniards played each other 31 times, which is the third most Nadal has faced any opponent. Still, the kind of tournaments where Cilic is going to make a deep run are not the same tournaments that Nadal is winning, so he is less likely to play that kind of player as frequently. Nadal also suffers more early-round losses than the other two, because he is less successful on grass and hard courts.<br />
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<b>Why Federer's percentage is lower...</b><br />
Like most of the rest of the group, Federer is more likely to do well on hard and grass courts. However, Federer is also older than everyone else on the list. Had the list featured players like Andy Roddick, David Nalbandian or David Ferrer, Federer's percentage would be slightly higher. Federer's career has spanned almost two decades, so his numbers would always be slightly lower regardless.<br />
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<b>Why Djokovic has the highest percentage...</b><br />
Djokovic, more than any player in tennis history, is dominant on all three surfaces. In nearly every tournament that Djokovic has played in his career, he is reaching the stage where he is going up against the best players of his era. Even when Djokovic doesn't win tournaments, he frequently reaching the finals and semifinals of tournaments. That's why Djokovic has more weeks at No. 1 than Nadal despite having less Grand Slam trophies.<br />
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Anytime someone wants to compare the win-loss records of Djokovic, Federer and Nadal in a GOAT debate, they must also look at who the three players played against. The data makes it clear that Djokovic is consistently playing against better opponents than what Federer and Nadal are having to face.Second Serbhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08919114104091280616noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8084601161020824627.post-30714540950948822082018-01-24T21:41:00.002-08:002018-01-24T21:41:30.299-08:00Tennis Twitter Turned Into A Leftist Mob<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.8px;">A tennis journalist that I truly respect in spite of our differing opinions is Courtney Nguyen. So when I saw Nguyen's tweet yesterday regarding Tennys Sandgren, it caught my attention. She said "Ours is a wonderful sport full of passionate fans from the very marginalized groups attacked by the rise of the alt-right. Don't tell us to calm down."</span><br />
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If tennis Sandgren were truly a member of the alt-right, I would agree that much of the reaction that has been seen over the last 48 hours from tennis fans is justified. However, there seems to be some serious confusion as to what makes a person a part of the alt-right movement.</div>
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That word "movement" is key, because that's what the alt-right is. Like any other political movement, it seeks to grow in popularity to be able to eventually influence public policy. That means that someone who believes in the alt-right's movement should be seeking to grow it's popularity.</div>
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But when given the opportunity to do so, Sandgren repudiated the alt-right. He even went as far as to say that Christian values are incompatible with alt-right values, discouraging fellow believers from associating with the movement that he is being accused of supporting.</div>
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That alone ought to end all speculation that Sandgren is even sympathetic to the political movement. Still, some are accusing the American tennis player of secretly holding pernicious beliefs, while pretending publicly to denounce the movement. What evidence do they have? His Twitter account.</div>
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While fellow American tennis players like Jarmere Jenkins, Nicole Gibbs and John Isner, who all have personal relationships with Sandgren, have stuck their necks out to defend him, Sandgren's accusers think a few tweets are more indicative of what kind of a person he is.</div>
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Granted, some of the tweets are distasteful and indefensible, but they don't meet the burden of proof to accuse Sandgren of supporting the alt-right with so much evidence to the contrary.</div>
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One of the Twitter users that started the accusations, conveniently compiled what were considered the most damning tweets (out of thousands) that Sandgren has posted in the last several years. In other words, this list is the worst of the worst. <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://twitter.com/dropshotsgalore/status/955819351390777345&source=gmail&ust=1516944993482000&usg=AFQjCNFh9btE_d29jvdaPdh46KCu3xC5tg" href="https://twitter.com/dropshotsgalore/status/955819351390777345" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">https://twitter.com/dro<wbr></wbr>pshotsgalore/status/9558193513<wbr></wbr>90777345</a></div>
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In the first tweet, Sandgren thanked a fan for offering support and added #americafirst. The issue is that the fan was a Trump supporter. That means that associating with any of the millions of Trump supporters, while being patriotic is the mark of a member of the alt-right in the view of Sandgren's accusers.</div>
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The next evidence was that Sandgren has had amicable Twitter exchanges with Nick Fuentes. I had no idea who Fuentes was before all this started and still don't know much, but guilt by association is weak evidence at best.</div>
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Next, Sandgren made two pro-life tweets. As mentioned before, Sandgren is a Christian, and his pro-life stance is consistent with biblical values. These tweets say far more about his religious views than his political views.</div>
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Moving down the list, one of Sandgren's news sources is the Daily Wire, whose editor-in-chief is Ben Shapiro. Sandgren already clarified that where he gets his news from does not reflect at all what he believes, but let's ignore that for a second. As an orthodox Jew, Ben Shapiro has spoken out against the alt-right many times and is among the most hated people by the alt-right. Last year, he received the most antisemetic tweets of anyone on Twitter. He also frequently uses his news site to denounce the alt-right. True supporters of the alt-right detest the Daily Wire and Ben Shapiro, not share their content on Twitter.</div>
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The next evidence is admittedly the most condemning. Sandgren made a pair of tweets making fun of gay people in a gay bar. These tweets are truly distasteful and indefensible. Having said that, these are just two tweets out of thousands that were made five years ago when he was 21 years old. He hasn't tweeted anything like this since then. Tennis fans have every right to take objection to these tweets, but they do not justify the accusation of being alt-right.</div>
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The following tweet is not much better, using a stereotype about asian women driving to make fun of a friend. This tweet was a reply and not meant to be seen in public. This in no way justifies what was said, but he has never said anything like this publicly. I think this was a severe lapse in judgement rather than an indicator of his genuine personal beliefs. This tweet really does not reflect well on him.</div>
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In the next tweet, he compared Karl Marx unfavorably to Adolf Hitler. Somehow, in the minds of Sandgren's accusers, strongly opposing communism is equivalent to supporting the alt-right. I hope no one sincerely believes that you must be a member of the alt-right to strongly oppose communism.</div>
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The next tweet shows Sandgren replying in agreement to a tweet by Mike Cernovich, who quoted a tweet and called it fake news. The original tweet was deleted, so I'm inclined to assume that it probably was fake news.</div>
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The next evidence is that he has retweeted Alex Jones twice. Alex Jones is a dishonest person, but the issue ought to be the content of the tweets rather than the person who wrote the tweets. The particular tweets that were retweeted had to do with transgender bathrooms. People can feel free to disagree with Sandgren on this issue, but most conservative republicans are against transgender bathrooms. If this is what it means to be an extremist, much of the right side of the political spectrum in the United States is extremist.</div>
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We already dealt with the topic of Ben Shapiro, so I'll skip the next tweet.</div>
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The next tweet was when he criticized tennis fans in New York for not supporting John Isner, who should have been the home favorite. Sandgren was sticking up for his friend, and in the wake of this controversy, John Isner has returned the favor.</div>
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The following evidence is that he is not a fan of Serena Williams. Before you assume that this is racism, he was cheering for another black American Sloane Stephens, who was playing against Serena Williams. Also, it is possible to dislike Serena Williams without hating an entire race of human beings. I should also mention that the tweet in question has been cropped by many Twitter users to remove the headline. This inaccurately makes it look like Sandgren is commenting on the pictures of Serena Williams screaming rather than the content of the article, which is what he was really commenting on.</div>
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The next evidence is a list of people that Sandgren follows. He already clarified that follows are not endorsements, but the list includes people like the president of his country along with other certified Twitter users that are popular follows for many Americans. Again, if Sandgren is an extremist or member of the alt-right, so is a huge portion of the United States.</div>
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The next evidence is that over a year ago, he wrote two tweets about a conspiracy theory involving Hillary Clinton. In 13 months since then, he hasn't brought it up again. This issue is clearly no longer relevant, because he doesn't seem to believe it anymore. What you would hope would happen when someone finds a conspiracy theory interesting is that they would eventually realize that its not true. In the case of Sandgren, he quickly realized it wasn't true and moved on.</div>
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Finally, Sandgren has retweeted Fox News, Drudge Report and Cloyd Rivers, which are all widely followed and retweeted Twitter accounts. This one is really a stretch. If this is the worst stuff that can be found out of thousands of tweets, there is no justification for accusing Sandgren of being a supporter of the alt-right.</div>
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As Jarmere Jenkins rightly tweeted before being bullied into deleting his tweet, this shouldn't even be a story. Sandgren just reached his first career quarterfinal at a major and this should be celebrated. Instead the last 48 hours has been an unwarranted trial on Sandgren's character.</div>
Second Serbhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08919114104091280616noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8084601161020824627.post-8512464391592841762018-01-22T17:17:00.002-08:002019-01-28T18:44:12.564-08:00A Great Response To A Dumb Question<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjNUxnzg4bg0_7wbVy4wvUOU2DpXwM4NkbhwBCOjKVgMheQEdY_34TqQg9Yezc_QvrQsSnU1AFe0t9_CFsMnaYf1DcOeoaXn7-Qn3_jxqjOIRT93weCnf0_a-lMPDCnaqLCiAj2Hl9RX0M/s1600/1516628919308.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="524" data-original-width="931" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjNUxnzg4bg0_7wbVy4wvUOU2DpXwM4NkbhwBCOjKVgMheQEdY_34TqQg9Yezc_QvrQsSnU1AFe0t9_CFsMnaYf1DcOeoaXn7-Qn3_jxqjOIRT93weCnf0_a-lMPDCnaqLCiAj2Hl9RX0M/s320/1516628919308.png" width="320" /></a></div>
Let's look at this Tennys Sandgren issue that has dominated Twitter over the last 24 hours for what it is: a witch hunt.<br />
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After reaching his first career quarterfinal at a major, Sandgren was asked in his press conference whether or not he was linked to the alt-right based on who he follows on Twitter.<br />
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It appears that Sandgren was advised not to answer the question, and in hindsight, that probably would have been the right decision. Instead Sandgren went ahead and answered the question brilliantly, saying "you can ask me who I am, and I'm perfectly fine answering those kinds of questions."<br />
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So who is Tennys Sandgren? He's a Christian. He also clarified that alt-right values are not consistent with his Christian values.<br />
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Yet even though he explicitly denounced the alt-right and offered no support to the movement, people are still trying form conspiracy theories that tie Sandgren to the alt-right. The answer that Sandgren gave on the spot doesn't leave any possibility for him to be linked to the alt-right in any way.<br />
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Let's back up to the question that started all this. It's a serious accusation to accuse someone of being alt-right. If you're going to accuse a player of this right after a career milestone, you better have some serious evidence. Instead, the only evidence offered was that Sandgren follows certain people on Twitter.<br />
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The same people who are actively trying to destroy Sandgren's reputation right now are the same ones who claim to believe in tolerance. Yet when a conservative, pro-life, Christian reaches the quarterfinals of a major, the response has been anything but tolerant.<br />
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There are some who disagree with Sandgren's worldview, but have gone on Twitter to point out that he is deserving of tolerance. The response they were met with was personal attacks. Anyone who even supports Sandgren as a tennis player is being considered a sympathizer to white supremacists.<br />
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Tennis Twitter in many ways has turned into an echo chamber for leftist ideology, and when someone from outside their ideology breaks into that echo chamber, a witch hunt ensues. The voices of reason get blocked and muted, while the witch hunters continue to believe themselves to be virtuous. All they really are is intolerant.Second Serbhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08919114104091280616noreply@blogger.com9tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8084601161020824627.post-91270112028915470602018-01-21T16:20:00.000-08:002018-01-21T16:20:41.144-08:00Navratilova's Consistency: Round 2<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhd3tTEthv1GY5a1Dj3NCvvA4xnCWTqf-0_fCAmR1bh8Na1IOBRCADSP7NFC4Gnseq1e9rNFvh8nwr4PVrCGgrxa1bv2CP7cumZ5c6c3o_4tGhgGIl1iknOqGWu7gxt-fEpWgcM7zrGADk/s1600/Serena-Navratilova.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="380" data-original-width="680" height="178" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhd3tTEthv1GY5a1Dj3NCvvA4xnCWTqf-0_fCAmR1bh8Na1IOBRCADSP7NFC4Gnseq1e9rNFvh8nwr4PVrCGgrxa1bv2CP7cumZ5c6c3o_4tGhgGIl1iknOqGWu7gxt-fEpWgcM7zrGADk/s320/Serena-Navratilova.jpg" width="320" /></a>As with many of my more <a href="http://secondserb.blogspot.com/2018/01/navratilova-is-only-being-consistent.html" target="_blank">opinionated posts</a>, a follow-up post can be useful for instructing those with dissenting opinions how best to characterize my views.<br />
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Martina Navratilova swooped in on Twitter today to clear the air that she isn't actually a socialist. To which I could respond "scroll through her Twitter feed and you be the judge," but I'll resist the temptation to do that. I'll take her word for it. She's not a socialist, but instead a progressive feminist that supports unions, which is totally different from a socialist apparently.<br />
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Some Twitter folks think that I would be surprised to learn that socialists support unions. It turns out, that this fact was the reason I wrote the post in the first place. Interestingly, Navratilova claims she's not a socialist, but does support unions.<br />
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So why would a progressive who supports unions oppose Novak Djokovic starting a player's union for the ATP? This is the question I wanted to answer in my last post, and while many people have called me many lovely names, nobody else has offered an alternate response to the question.<br />
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One Twitter user semi-accurately described my view as this "inequality is a good thing as long as someone benefits from it." She then sarcastically added "Capitalism at its finest."<br />
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This proves my point. Progressives (I won't say socialists since that's not what Navratilova is) hold that equality is an absolute moral good. Djokovic is fighting for the benefit of some, which has the side effect of inequality. Therefore, Navratilova and all who hold equality as an absolute moral good, must oppose Djokovic's efforts.<br />
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Thus, my conclusion that Navratilova's opposition to Djokovic is perfectly consistent with her progressive (not socialist) worldview.<br />
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The other point I wanted to make in my original post is that opposing Djokovic is also opposing an increase in WTA prize money. As Jonathan Liew correctly pointed out "ITF rules on pay equity dictate that any increase in men's prize money must be reflected on the women's side."<br />
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Therefore, in the name of equality, Navratilova is also opposing women receiving increased prize money at joint events. This is the problem with holding equality as an absolute moral good. If you disagree, what is your explanation for a progressive feminist who supports unions, opposing Djokovic's efforts?Second Serbhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08919114104091280616noreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8084601161020824627.post-84205436110248766012018-01-21T12:56:00.005-08:002018-01-21T12:56:56.228-08:00The Federer Prism Isn't Even Fair To FedererAs a fan of Novak Djokovic, the media's habit of looking at everything through what I call the Federer Prism gets really annoying. I wrote about this a lot when Djokovic completed the non-calendar grand slam, a feat that is missing on Federer's GOAT resume. However, the media compared Djokovic's achievement to Roger Federer finishing the career grand slam in 2009. That is because the media can only understand events through the Federer prism.<br />
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The latest manifestation of this is to talk about how every player will be reaching their peak when they turn 36. The assumption is that the trajectory of Federer's career is the blue print that every other player either is or should be using to plan the rest of their own careers.<br />
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This shows a complete lack of appreciation for what Federer accomplished in 2017. Nobody has ever done anything like what Federer did last year, and to assume that suddenly every other player is going to do the same is absurd.<br />
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The best way to recognize and appreciate what Federer did last year is to stop talking about other players trying to do the same thing. It will be decades before anything remotely similar happens again. Give Federer his due and stop analyzing other players through the Federer Prism.Second Serbhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08919114104091280616noreply@blogger.com13tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8084601161020824627.post-89367874785547561672018-01-20T23:17:00.001-08:002018-01-20T23:20:06.614-08:00Navratilova Is Only Being Consistent<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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On Friday, Independent posted a sarcastically-toned column on Novak Djokovic's push to start a player's union for the ATP. The post said that Judy Murray and Martina Navratilova were both against the idea, and right on cue, both women retweeted the article to endorse the message.<br />
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Navratilova is an outspoken feminist, socialist, progressive, and leftist. Use whatever term you like. So it should come as no surprise that she would be against a player's union for the ATP, because it is perfectly consistent with her worldview.<br />
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What Djokovic is trying to do (among other things) is get a percentage increase in the prize money for all players on the ATP. Pure evil, right?<br />
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Let's say Djokovic gets his way, and there is a five percent increase in prize money at all ATP events. That means there would also be a five percent increase in prize money for the WTA in all joint events, but not the events that only feature the WTA. That means that if Djokovic gets his way, everybody wins.<br />
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So how could a retired tennis player like Navratilova possibly oppose something that will benefit all tennis players?<br />
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I'll let her speak for herself. "Certainly, giving more money to the men than the women is not a solution. That's the wrong thing to do, and I wish Novak would see that."<br />
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Look at what Martina is saying here. She is acknowledging that women would gain money from a player's union forming for the ATP, but is complaining that the players on the ATP would gain even more. The women would benefit from what Djokovic is doing, but since the men would benefit even more, it certainly can't be a solution.<br />
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Here's a bright idea. The WTA should form its own player's union and ask for more prize money. Why doesn't Navratilova support that idea? The answer is obvious. The WTA cannot increase the players' wages without the help of the popularity of the ATP.<br />
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The issue for Navratilova with what Djokovic is trying to accomplish is that it would help male tennis players more than it would help female tennis players. In other words, if Djokovic succeeds, it would be a win for the dreaded male privilege.<br />
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Like any good socialist, Navratilova's worldview is built on a foundation of jealousy. Privilege and inequality of any kind are the only true evils in Navratilova's worldview. Just scroll through her Twitter feed some time and see how much she talks about White Privilege and income inequality. She is motivated by jealousy.<br />
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Let's take the example of a mother of three happy children. The three kids are sitting on the couch, and they are happy. The mother goes into the kitchen and gets a bowl of ice cream and hands it to one of the kids. As you can imagine, the other two kids are now angry. Why? Nothing changed for them. They had no ice cream and continue to have no ice cream. They're angry because it is unfair that one kid received ice cream, while they didn't. They are jealous.<br />
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Let's say, the mother goes back into the kitchen a gets a larger bowl of ice cream and hands it to a different kid. Now, the one who was thrilled a second ago to have any ice cream at all is angry that he didn't get more ice cream. He was happier when nobody had any ice cream at all. His jealousy has ruined his happiness over having ice cream in the first place.<br />
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This is what's happening with the potential of a player's union. Any logical person can see that more prize money for the players is a good thing. All Navratilova sees is an increase in income inequality between the genders. She's decided that it's better for there to be no increase in prize money for anyone at all, than for the ATP to receive a bigger prize money increase than the WTA.<br />
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It's jealousy and it's the byproduct of a socialist worldview that holds equality as an absolute moral good.Second Serbhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08919114104091280616noreply@blogger.com22tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8084601161020824627.post-78723100476576162017-05-23T21:06:00.003-07:002017-05-23T21:18:05.683-07:00Zverev makes generational statement in Rome<div>
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<i>With his title in Rome, Sascha broke a new record by being 3,126 days younger than the next youngest player with a Masters Series 1000 title.</i></div>
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ROME, Italy -- As the average peak age of tennis players gets older, it becomes increasingly impressive when a young player makes a run at a big tournament, defeats a top-10 player or, in the case of 20-year old Alexander Zverev, win a Masters Series 1000 title. However, the German hasn't quite got the attention he deserves.<br />
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Sometimes when someone does something so unprecedented, the achievement fails to get the deserved recognition, because there is nothing to compare it to. When Novak Djokovic won four majors in a row on three different surfaces, the achievement was overlooked. There was nothing to compare with what Djokovic had done. Some tried to compare it to things Roger Federer had done, but Federer never won four in a row. Others wanted to compare it to Rod Laver's grand slams, but that was on only two different surfaces</div>
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Zverev's incredible run to the title in Rome has been compared to other players from outside the Big Four winning Masters Series 1000 titles, but none of those players were 20-years old at the time. The next youngest players to win a Masters Series 1000 title in the era of the Big Four aren't even close to Zverev.</div>
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23-year old Jo-Wilfried Tsonga: Paris (2008)</div>
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24-year old Tommy Robredo: Hamburg (2006)</div>
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25-year old David Nalbandian: Madrid & Paris (2007)</div>
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26-year old Robin Soderling: Paris (2010)</div>
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27-year old Marin Cilic: Cincinnati (2016)</div>
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A lot has changed in tennis in the nine years since Tsonga won the title in Paris. The most impressive stat to come out of Sunday's final was that Sascha, born in 1997, was the first player born in the 1990's to even win a set in a Masters Series final. That is an entire generation of players that got skipped.</div>
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This graph gives a visual representation of the distribution of Masters Series 1000 titles by birth year with the red bar all alone on the right belonging to Zverev.</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEil_p6Cn8YV6bDWScsXt85Vqs4hSSuQtedS108y19MlEWL6XFF59Y2z5gsW_eoRNVI18GEuKhoQL4zvLnGxyQYbMHC_rBghwmA2aWuvb0psnyCGpcUNdnQLtkC2mcox45kG0Ja-Mc03fng/s1600/Masters+1000+graph.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" height="204" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEil_p6Cn8YV6bDWScsXt85Vqs4hSSuQtedS108y19MlEWL6XFF59Y2z5gsW_eoRNVI18GEuKhoQL4zvLnGxyQYbMHC_rBghwmA2aWuvb0psnyCGpcUNdnQLtkC2mcox45kG0Ja-Mc03fng/s400/Masters+1000+graph.jpg" width="500" /></a></div>
The next youngest player to have won a 1000 title is Cilic, who is more than 8.5 years older than Zverev. That means nobody born in the eight and a half years between Cilic and Zverev has been able to do with Zverev just did.<br />
<br />
Below is a list of all the players who at the time of their first title were the youngest to have won a Masters Series 1000.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Stefan Edberg (1-19-1966) - won the first Masters Series 1000 tournament</div>
<div>
Andre Agassi (4-29-1970)</div>
<div>
Michael Chang (2-22-1972)</div>
<div>
Andriy Medvedev (8-31-1974)</div>
<div>
Roberto Carretero (8-30-1975)</div>
<div>
Marcelo Rios (11-11-1975)</div>
<div>
Carlos Moya (8-27-1976)</div>
<div>
Mark Philippoussis (11-7-1976)</div>
<div>
Marat Safin (1-27-1980)</div>
<div>
Lleyton Hewitt (2-24-1981)</div>
<div>
Roger Federer (9-8-1981)</div>
<div>
Guillermo Coria (1-18-1982)</div>
<div>
Andy Roddick (8-30-1982)</div>
<div>
Rafael Nadal (6-3-1986)</div>
<div>
Novak Djokovic (5-22-1987)</div>
<div>
Marin Cilic (9-28-1988)</div>
<div>
Alexander Zverev (4-20-1997)</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
This means that with his title in Rome, Sascha broke a new record by being 3,126 days younger than the next youngest player with a Masters Series 1000 title. It is actually twice as big of a gap as any two other players on the above timeline. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
The second largest gap was the time between the birthdays of Edberg and Agassi. However, both of these players won their first Masters Series titles in the first year of the event. If Masters Series 1000's had been played before during the 1980s, certainly someone born between those two dates (like a Boris Becker or Thomas Muster) would have already won a title.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Here's how many days younger each player is than the next youngest player to have won a 1000 at the time of their first title.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Zverev 3,126</div>
<div>
Agassi 1,561</div>
<div>
Nadal 1,373</div>
<div>
Safin 1,176</div>
<div>
Medvedev 921</div>
<div>
Chang 664</div>
<div>
Cilic 495</div>
<div>
Hewitt 394</div>
<div>
Carretero 364</div>
<div>
Djokovic 353</div>
<div>
Moya 290</div>
<div>
Roddick 224</div>
<div>
Federer 196</div>
<div>
Coria 132</div>
<div>
Rios 73</div>
<div>
Philippoussis 72</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
This stat gives an indication of just how hard it was to break through at the time of their breakthrough. In other words, Coria, Rios, Philippoussis and Federer broke through at a time when there was a vacancy at the top of the game. Since this is Big Four era, it's no surprise that it has never been harder to do what Zverev just did this week in Rome.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
Second Serbhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08919114104091280616noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8084601161020824627.post-90910575321863859142017-05-21T21:43:00.001-07:002017-05-21T21:43:45.891-07:00Djokovic's Top-2 Reign<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj3p2eZZRgjppmnwTGaQI3AQ2oJCK3LOz0Zvlaj-iNywJ_F8I8VsUn8XCx7TAaymlk0T8zcw2jRupMqOeY3qv2bKbihSr5JpR-T6t06WHOek61q19G8jju6DAFtR5PyWh88bTBaJ8V9jdE/s1600/djokovic.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj3p2eZZRgjppmnwTGaQI3AQ2oJCK3LOz0Zvlaj-iNywJ_F8I8VsUn8XCx7TAaymlk0T8zcw2jRupMqOeY3qv2bKbihSr5JpR-T6t06WHOek61q19G8jju6DAFtR5PyWh88bTBaJ8V9jdE/s320/djokovic.jpg" width="320" /></a>Novak Djokovic has been ranked inside the top 2 in the world for the last 324 weeks and he is guaranteed to remain in the top 2 for at least two more weeks. That means Djokovic will have been ranked either No. 1 or No. 2 in the world six and a quarter years.<br />
<br />
For some context, here are the longest streaks of other top players<br />
Roger Federer: 347<br />
Novak Djokovic: 324<br />
John McEnroe: 321<br />
Jimmy Connors: 290<br />
Ivan Lendl: 280<br />
Rafael Nadal: 213, 105<br />
Pete Sampras: 172, 155<br />
Bjorn Borg: 135<br />
Andy Murray: 81<br />
<br />
For Djokovic to catch Federer, he has to remain inside the top 2 until the week of the Paris-Bercy Masters 1000. That right now looks very unlikely with Rafael Nadal almost certainly catching Djokovic before the Serb has a chance to catch Andy Murray.<br />
<br />
There are four players that have a shot to catch Djokovic in the rankings at Roland Garros: Marin Cilic, Milos Raonic, Stan Wawrinka and Nadal. This is a look at what Djokovic needs to do to prevent each of the following players from passing him in the rankings.<br />
<br />
Cilic needs to win the title to have a chance to surpass Djokovic.<br />
-Djokovic needs to reach at least the quarterfinals to guarantee that Cilic doesn't pass him.<br />
<br />
Raonic needs to win the title to have a chance to surpass Djokovic.<br />
-Djokovic needs to reach the final to guarantee that Raonic doesn't pass him.<br />
<br />
Wawrinka needs to reach the semifinals to have a chance to surpass Djokovic.<br />
-If Wawrinka loses in the semifinals, Djokovic only needs to arrive to Paris to remain No. 2.<br />
-If Wawrinka loses in the final, Djokovic needs to reach the semifinals to remain No. 2.<br />
-If Wawrinka wins the title, he will surpass Djokovic in the rankings.<br />
<br />
Nadal needs to reach the second week to have a chance to surpass Djokovic.<br />
-If Nadal loses in the round of 16, Djokovic only needs to win his first round match.<br />
-If Nadal loses in the quarterfinals, Djokovic must also reach the quarterfinals.<br />
-If Nadal loses in the semifinals, Djokovic must also reach the semifinals.<br />
-If Nadal loses in the final, Djokovic needs to be the player that beat Nadal in the final.<br />
-If Nadal wins the title, he will be the No. 2 player in the world.<br />
<br />
This means that Djokovic is guaranteed to remain No. 2 in the world if he wins the title in Paris. If he does remain No. 2 after Roland Garros, he is likely safe until he loses 1000 points in Canada. That would add 10 more weeks to his total, putting him at 334 consecutive weeks inside the top 2 in the world.Second Serbhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08919114104091280616noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8084601161020824627.post-59724927513258192772017-03-11T16:22:00.002-08:002017-03-15T17:19:05.795-07:00Tennis' Top 20 Under 20: 6th EditionThis is the sixth edition of my series that ranks the top 20 teenagers on the ATP based on their projected future success. I started with 49 names and have narrowed it down to the top 20 at the start of Indian Wells 2017.<br />
<br />
Three players from last year's top 20 are no longer teenagers, opening the door for some of the world's best young guns to make the list for the first time. In the nearly three years of doing this series, it has only gotten harder to narrow the field down to 20 as players continue to play better at earlier stages in their careers.<br />
<br />
Here's a look at the last four lists of the top 20 under 20.<br />
<br />
Previous Top 20 Under 20<br />
<table><tbody>
<tr>
<td>No.</td>
<td><a href="http://secondserb.blogspot.com/2015/02/top-20-under-20-part-2.html" target="_blank">Feb. 2015</a></td>
<td><a href="http://secondserb.blogspot.com/2015/07/tennis-top-20-under-20-3rd-edition.html" target="_blank">July 2015</a></td>
<td><a href="http://secondserb.blogspot.com/2016/02/tennis-top-20-under-20-4th-edition.html" target="_blank">Feb. 2016</a></td>
<td><a href="http://secondserb.blogspot.com/2016/02/tennis-top-20-under-20-5th-edition.html" target="_blank">Aug. 2016</a></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="background-color: #dedede;">1.</td>
<td style="background-color: #dedede;">Nick Kyrgios</td>
<td style="background-color: #dedede;">Borna Coric</td>
<td style="background-color: #dedede;">Alexander Zverev</td>
<td style="background-color: #dedede;">Alexander Zverev</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2.</td>
<td>Borna Coric</td>
<td>Andrey Rublev</td>
<td>Borna Coric</td>
<td>Taylor Fritz</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="background-color: #dedede;">3.</td>
<td style="background-color: #dedede;">Roman Safiullin</td>
<td style="background-color: #dedede;">Alexander Zverev</td>
<td style="background-color: #dedede;">Taylor Fritz</td>
<td style="background-color: #dedede;">Borna Coric</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>4.</td>
<td>Andrey Rublev</td>
<td>Jared Donaldson</td>
<td>Frances Tiafoe</td>
<td>Frances Tiafoe</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="background-color: #dedede;">5.</td>
<td style="background-color: #dedede;">Jared Donaldson</td>
<td style="background-color: #dedede;">Hyeon Chung</td>
<td style="background-color: #dedede;">Felix AA</td>
<td style="background-color: #dedede;">Denis Shapovalov</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>6.</td>
<td>Alexander Zverev</td>
<td>T. Kokkinakis</td>
<td>Hyeon Chung</td>
<td>Jared Donaldson</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="background-color: #dedede;">7.</td>
<td style="background-color: #dedede;">Hyeon Chung</td>
<td style="background-color: #dedede;">Taylor Fritz</td>
<td style="background-color: #dedede;">Andrey Rublev</td>
<td style="background-color: #dedede;">Felix AA</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>8.</td>
<td>Y. Nishioka</td>
<td>Frances Tiafoe</td>
<td>Jared Donaldson</td>
<td>Andrey Rublev</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="background-color: #dedede;">9.</td>
<td style="background-color: #dedede;">T. Kokkinakis</td>
<td style="background-color: #dedede;">Elias Ymer</td>
<td style="background-color: #dedede;">Roman Safiullin</td>
<td style="background-color: #dedede;">Reilly Opelka</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>10.</td>
<td>Elias Ymer</td>
<td>Roman Safiullin</td>
<td>T. Kokkinakis</td>
<td>M. Kecmanovic</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="background-color: #dedede;">11.</td>
<td style="background-color: #dedede;">Christian Garin</td>
<td style="background-color: #dedede;">Omar Jasika</td>
<td style="background-color: #dedede;">Elias Ymer</td>
<td style="background-color: #dedede;">Stefan Kozlov</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>12.</td>
<td>Noah Rubin</td>
<td>Laslo Djere</td>
<td>Duckhee Lee</td>
<td>Stefanos Tsitsipas</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="background-color: #dedede;">13.</td>
<td style="background-color: #dedede;">Frances Tiafoe</td>
<td style="background-color: #dedede;">Y. Nishioka</td>
<td style="background-color: #dedede;">Oliver Anderson</td>
<td style="background-color: #dedede;">Michael Mmoh</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>14.</td>
<td>Taylor Fritz</td>
<td>Mikael Ymer</td>
<td>Karen Khachanov</td>
<td>Quentin Halys</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="background-color: #dedede;">15.</td>
<td style="background-color: #dedede;">Stefan Kozlov</td>
<td style="background-color: #dedede;">Tommy Paul</td>
<td style="background-color: #dedede;">Rayane Roumane</td>
<td style="background-color: #dedede;">Casper Ruud</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>16.</td>
<td>Seong Chan Hong</td>
<td>Reilly Opelka</td>
<td>Stefanos Tsitsipas</td>
<td>Alex De Minaur</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="background-color: #dedede;">17.</td>
<td style="background-color: #dedede;">Duckhee Lee</td>
<td style="background-color: #dedede;">Stefan Kozlov</td>
<td style="background-color: #dedede;">M. Kecmanovic</td>
<td style="background-color: #dedede;">Tommy Paul</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>18.</td>
<td>Ernesto Escobedo</td>
<td>M. Kecmanovic</td>
<td>Quinten Halys</td>
<td>Rudolf Molleker</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="background-color: #dedede;">19.</td>
<td style="background-color: #dedede;">Yun Seong Chung</td>
<td style="background-color: #dedede;">Stefanos Tsitsipas</td>
<td style="background-color: #dedede;">Duckhee Lee</td>
<td style="background-color: #dedede;">Duckhee Lee</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>20.</td>
<td>Noah Rubin</td>
<td>Felix AA</td>
<td>Michael Mmoh</td>
<td>Zane Khan</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<br />
Link: First edition (<a href="http://secondserb.blogspot.com/2014/07/top-20-under-20.html" target="_blank">July 2014</a>)<br />
<br />
<b>1. Alexander Zverev (GER) Age: 19, Rank 20</b><br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjsCGdVhgijo0uPVKiMtGZajtujsIxj-2C5zF-rh7_JkuQA7_bL5CuwrZRLXZbSAkESjtFF46EWSpFuT4ahLJzbjtr4nNEtb8MMxF-yG8Bm5T7I_PXbK-_EiKwxYHCzRVEMLK1qZSRDOTw/s1600/Zverev.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjsCGdVhgijo0uPVKiMtGZajtujsIxj-2C5zF-rh7_JkuQA7_bL5CuwrZRLXZbSAkESjtFF46EWSpFuT4ahLJzbjtr4nNEtb8MMxF-yG8Bm5T7I_PXbK-_EiKwxYHCzRVEMLK1qZSRDOTw/s320/Zverev.jpg" width="320" /></a>Zverev is not only in the top 20 for this age group. The German is in the top 20 in the world for any age and has been as high as No. 18 this year. It wasn't long ago that there wasn't a single teenager anywhere in the top 200, let alone the top 20. A couple weeks ago, Zverev earned his second career title, beating Jeremy Chardy, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Richard Gasquet along the way on French soil. At the Australian Open, Zverev reached the third round and led two sets to one before falling to the eventual runner-up Rafael Nadal. He's 6-foot-6 and moves better than anyone else his size. There aren't many weaknesses in his game, but opponents will be trying to uncover any weakness for years to come. He's the player to beat in the next generation.<br />
<b></b><br />
<b>2. Taylor Fritz (USA) Age: 19, Rank 136</b><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjxhxEanaM42fahmHckvjYGoZqa3b0mixf340os0vTfAEGNJH8dbi-cywyom6T82s1qr6ZXnA0Ge055qPfEYOQfMx1dHaa9IpTQe6Y3iL1rLZOTFohyphenhyphenABXZW1sfjINJSM_7Rwzmzyfkq8I/s1600/Fritz.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="178" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjxhxEanaM42fahmHckvjYGoZqa3b0mixf340os0vTfAEGNJH8dbi-cywyom6T82s1qr6ZXnA0Ge055qPfEYOQfMx1dHaa9IpTQe6Y3iL1rLZOTFohyphenhyphenABXZW1sfjINJSM_7Rwzmzyfkq8I/s320/Fritz.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
Fritz finds himself in a bit of a slump right now, but that is to be expected as he tries to defend all the points he racked up during his incredible run 52 weeks ago. The pieces to Fritz's game that made him so successful in 2016 are still there. He has a simple and reliable serve with great variety, a strong forehand and a unique ability to take returns early. The key for Fritz will be to have success when he leaves the North American continent. Once he starts playing in other countries the way he plays in his own, he'll crack the top 50 easily.<br />
<b> </b><br />
<b>3. Frances Tiafoe (USA) Age: 19, Rank 86</b><br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjxc9q43u_DX0PO6Fl7UZ-jCAlbaq84aMc5X55qx-z_TBnb8NG7D0isqFNpQMASgzO2ZlnxaKgpnqa4XG2zCro7nVNP9kD4DTqYHBjayfDpuNaJ2DtaLQsm6egig-kqOGJ4raucupShCPw/s1600/Tiafoe.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="203" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjxc9q43u_DX0PO6Fl7UZ-jCAlbaq84aMc5X55qx-z_TBnb8NG7D0isqFNpQMASgzO2ZlnxaKgpnqa4XG2zCro7nVNP9kD4DTqYHBjayfDpuNaJ2DtaLQsm6egig-kqOGJ4raucupShCPw/s320/Tiafoe.jpg" width="320" /></a>Tiafoe joins Zverev as the lone teenagers inside the top 100 right now. The young American has been surrounded by hype for years because of his lightning-quick speed and his power off the forehand wing. Despite his athleticism, Tiafoe has several technical flaws in his game. His serve has a big pause right in the middle of the motion, his backhand looks stiff and his forehand is awfully flat for such a wrist-driven action. It is almost impossible to make big technical changes to a game at this point in his career, which could put a ceiling on just how successful he could be. Still, he's already in the top 100 and can only get better from here, so it's hard to leave him out of the top three.<br />
<b> </b><br />
<b>4. Felix Auger-Aliassime (CAN) Age: 16, Rank 511</b><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjoQo33GrBbgRjS9MP9VdgIwZvcDjh9wNCPWfoJGf1Noe13fUhrJOH0caHeOKU6UjR3DmXkPdoPycBoRYA5WkfM2MyGIu28qenvvPYRZYOsG7cYrDyAn0KYYtqKFxfiAiY9_KQg9X3Aq9Q/s1600/Auger.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="256" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjoQo33GrBbgRjS9MP9VdgIwZvcDjh9wNCPWfoJGf1Noe13fUhrJOH0caHeOKU6UjR3DmXkPdoPycBoRYA5WkfM2MyGIu28qenvvPYRZYOsG7cYrDyAn0KYYtqKFxfiAiY9_KQg9X3Aq9Q/s320/Auger.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
This is the Canadian's fourth consecutive appearance on this list after first appearing at No. 20 when he was still just 14-years old. The No. 4 ranking is the best so far for Felix. Now a full-time pro, Felix won 21 of 25 matches this year on the futures level and has reached the final of the futures event in Sherbrooke, Canada. That will likely be enough to put Felix in the top 500 for the first time in his career. Felix is 6-foot-1 and still growing, which means that he will have to reshape his game slightly over the next few years to match his height. That's a tough process for any player to go through, especially when there is a microscope on every match he plays. His climb up the rankings won't be steady, but he will be getting directly into Challenger Tour main draws sooner rather than later.<br />
<b> </b><br />
<b>5. Casper Ruud (NOR) Age: 18, Rank 128</b><br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhRrrXYNEMOzfFHsx2-g0Z1oEqE4eudtUuAoFetayM5Wk3_N1-2PnfoRgWxtqiJ3bbHh7AR8AFl88CoGvvlJf-SLvLl2LvynFJzAXcKUMTY1HdkaPSGNHjgpbJ_3sM9aoZ5dII8fIjZMw8/s1600/Ruud.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhRrrXYNEMOzfFHsx2-g0Z1oEqE4eudtUuAoFetayM5Wk3_N1-2PnfoRgWxtqiJ3bbHh7AR8AFl88CoGvvlJf-SLvLl2LvynFJzAXcKUMTY1HdkaPSGNHjgpbJ_3sM9aoZ5dII8fIjZMw8/s320/Ruud.jpg" width="320" /></a>After a remarkable junior career, Ruud has had little trouble adjusting to life as a professional. Ruud won his third event of the 2016 season, a futures in Paguera, Spain, and he hasn't looked back since and is now knocking on the doorstep of the top 100. He is the first player on this list so far that prefers clay, but he isn't just a clay specialist. He already has three tour-level victories on hard courts and was one win away from qualifying for the Australian Open. Clay is clearly his preferred surface though and he is currently the King of Yellow Clay after winning the Challenger in Sevilla as a qualifier, coming back from down a set four times. Ruud moves well, making it hard for opponents to get to his backhand and he's able to strike the ball well from defensive positions. Ruud reached the semifinals in Rio and will be hoping to get some wild cards during the spring to test his ability against the best during the European clay swing.<br />
<br />
<b>6. Denis Shapovalov (CAN) Age: 17, Rank 253</b><br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjv0lHuwXCfPne1AuWHgp4MNasTmXEjtr51tdg1bO8JOujf5iPK9H5UiqPDXpPz72sZV8l5ITjWVIuyDQSnJMJCM4h2QBAGdotxJcJ7O7MjOeK70Br9xaPa5hXb90EQn2BC3i2J649oA94/s1600/Shapovalov.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="239" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjv0lHuwXCfPne1AuWHgp4MNasTmXEjtr51tdg1bO8JOujf5iPK9H5UiqPDXpPz72sZV8l5ITjWVIuyDQSnJMJCM4h2QBAGdotxJcJ7O7MjOeK70Br9xaPa5hXb90EQn2BC3i2J649oA94/s320/Shapovalov.jpg" width="320" /></a>The 2017 season hasn't been kind to Shapovalov, who looked to be on a clear path to the top 200 just a few months ago. Still, he is by far the highest ranked player of his age group and is one of the only left-handed players his age that is having success. His unique style with the nasty slice serve along with a one-handed backhand will make him tricky to beat even though he lacks any single massive weapon. He has great hands, which makes up for the awkwardness of one-handed returns. At his best, he is a left-handed Stan Wawrinka with great court coverage. The key for the Canadian will be to get more consistent power on his ground strokes, especially the forehand. He's only 17, so there is plenty of time to improve his game before he starts contending for tour-level titles on a weekly basis. <br />
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<b>7. Andrey Rublev (RUS) Age: 19, Rank 134</b><br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiJ2f8R2YLrDtGc8Gbaacz9zn2zCv8-NP7SN8AIiMwh_PeoNwzcWFJ-vIcuNcFU7qjjmTcDRd1CxsKqFCY6eoyt-uYFSTXrLaOef1xa_7YciW9okCg_A_iurvmET-2dA42jfHAFrZgM_Sg/s1600/Rublev.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="203" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiJ2f8R2YLrDtGc8Gbaacz9zn2zCv8-NP7SN8AIiMwh_PeoNwzcWFJ-vIcuNcFU7qjjmTcDRd1CxsKqFCY6eoyt-uYFSTXrLaOef1xa_7YciW9okCg_A_iurvmET-2dA42jfHAFrZgM_Sg/s320/Rublev.jpg" width="320" /></a>It has been nearly two years since Rublev first cracked the top 200 and he still hasn't reached the top 100 just yet. He reached a career-high ranking of 111 after qualifying for Marseille, but the lack of progress for the Russian has been worrying. He is currently No. 49 in the Race to London rankings, which is a good sign after some success on the Challenger Tour. Rublev prefers hard courts, but has been successful on clay as well. He won't be getting as many wildcards now as he was last year, so he's going to have to work his way into the top 100. Once he gets that breakthrough, that could be what opens the flood gates that hold back all the potential that he clearly possesses. His big breakthrough has taken longer than expected, but there are still lots of reasons to be excited about Rublev's future.<br />
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<b>8. Reilly Opelka (USA) Age: 19, Rank 169</b><br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhstD6Ry0YMbDvSgxTPxCkGl5wROqPzfgddFQiMBeeDnPcSfcfLli-qMrKLGx-8_BMzE1LMtYwNhmsOlH_0wZ0rgW3UBGGHGbdFpoLe5df8rpzFxskd5kz2lnUp9W-xJF1Qc1_JyNqG3oA/s1600/Opelka.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="215" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhstD6Ry0YMbDvSgxTPxCkGl5wROqPzfgddFQiMBeeDnPcSfcfLli-qMrKLGx-8_BMzE1LMtYwNhmsOlH_0wZ0rgW3UBGGHGbdFpoLe5df8rpzFxskd5kz2lnUp9W-xJF1Qc1_JyNqG3oA/s320/Opelka.jpg" width="320" /></a>Approaching seven-feet tall, Opelka is guaranteed to have a very successful career if he stays healthy. The blueprint for success has already been laid out for tennis' tallest player by Ivo Karlovic and John Isner. Opelka already has a more complete game than either of those players, moving very well for his size with technically solid ground strokes. He tends to pull the trigger early in the rally from bad positions rather than trusting his ability to win long rallies. But when you serve like Opelka, you're only looking for one break each set anyways. There isn't much harm in going for broke when he only has to be successful once in six tries. Neither of his peers in height have been able to grab the biggest trophies in tennis though. Five sets is tough for a player that relies primarily on his serve, especially when there is no tiebreaker in the fifth. That's where Opelka's return game is going to have to come through for him. He already has a great second-serve return, so he just needs to get his timing down on the first serve. Isner has a notoriously late split step on first serve returns, which will be something that Opelka will learn from.<br />
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<b>9. Stefan Kozlov (USA) Age: 19, Rank 116</b><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgmsG3r8HTbZnrDJ6058QBljBirtHmIWC8yHkGpG5vOjb0wmD-DajuaJWp2SWCrGdjbu9GPDsp1bMDjlCzJn9cCH-2Sjj4cOkL239y89CFQn5gzIpXMnV2e4ecbVxbmLvJqY-pwUOomgOg/s1600/Kozlov.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgmsG3r8HTbZnrDJ6058QBljBirtHmIWC8yHkGpG5vOjb0wmD-DajuaJWp2SWCrGdjbu9GPDsp1bMDjlCzJn9cCH-2Sjj4cOkL239y89CFQn5gzIpXMnV2e4ecbVxbmLvJqY-pwUOomgOg/s320/Kozlov.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
It's hard to believe Kozlov is still a teenager. Attention has been on him since long before he turned pro in 2013. He is now playing the best tennis of his career and is close to breaking into the top 100. Known for his consistency from the back of the court, Kozlov has developed other parts of his game while becoming more athletic overall. His serve has always been his biggest weakness and it hasn't seemed to have improved much in the last year, but he is good enough from the baseline to make up for that. He also anticipates the as well as any other player on tour save Andy Murray.<br />
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<b>10. Alexander Bublik (KAZ) Age: 19, Rank 138</b><br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjIk9wv5y9UA_UP6t0J1aiTYQRk_H18QdEAGGbsPSyV49Lm5HVOKlt4bfqtasESq-DJIQ5mpe-1Nu6uw4ObImRwexrYDFsYruTHZkjeNjVBIssc-tGnIH5fdT1K1u4dsm1hCFdmWzJqmKI/s1600/Bublik.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjIk9wv5y9UA_UP6t0J1aiTYQRk_H18QdEAGGbsPSyV49Lm5HVOKlt4bfqtasESq-DJIQ5mpe-1Nu6uw4ObImRwexrYDFsYruTHZkjeNjVBIssc-tGnIH5fdT1K1u4dsm1hCFdmWzJqmKI/s320/Bublik.jpg" width="320" /></a>The biggest mistake on my list last summer arguably was leaving Bublik off the list. As soon as the list came out, he went on to win two of the next three futures events he played in and then reached the quarterfinals in Moscow as a qualifier. Then he reached the second round of the Australian Open was a qualifier after knocking off No. 16 Lucas Pouille in the first round to crack the top 200. In February, he won a Challenger Tour event in Mexico and is now at a career-high ranking of 138. Bublik has a great serve and forehand, but movement and shot selection are his weaknesses. He favors his forehand so much that he tries to run around everything, jamming himself often. His backhand actually isn't that bad when he has his feet set. If he stops running around his backhand or hitting drop shots and tweeners from bad positions, he'll win a lot more matches. Tactical adjustments are the easiest kind to make. If he has a good coach in his corner throughout his career, he'll make me look even more foolish for leaving him off the list last time.<br />
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<b>11. Miomir Kecmanovic (SRB) Age: 17, Rank 651</b><br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEivj_0riP4OsOYSD8DAs1SA48pbQ3CoCie53aKD3I2fknm8swtlbKRV39aMYdiGYXGfh4PhKpj1bnIgBckByDgvYCV4ASUlEWsE_zqHz-LVTCl6ks7EgMkd63YowVk41OwvIMRponT2s_c/s1600/Kecmanovic.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEivj_0riP4OsOYSD8DAs1SA48pbQ3CoCie53aKD3I2fknm8swtlbKRV39aMYdiGYXGfh4PhKpj1bnIgBckByDgvYCV4ASUlEWsE_zqHz-LVTCl6ks7EgMkd63YowVk41OwvIMRponT2s_c/s200/Kecmanovic.jpg" width="133" /></a>The Serb is exactly 200 spots higher than he was when the fifth edition came out, which is good progress. He started the year with a great result in Sunrise, Florida, winning the futures event against a tough field. He has gone into a slump since then, which is the problem with playing futures events exclusively in the United States. There is no such thing as an easy draw aside from his first-round match against a player that has never been ranked in singles after finishing his collegiate career in 2010. The Serb has also played only clay events this year despite having some success on hard courts last year. Kecmanovic has lots of time to develop, so his ranking doesn't need to be his top priority right now.<br />
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<b>12. Duckhee Lee (KOR) Age: 18, Rank 135</b><br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjEvad0WbbseN4_cSaHduZ2tHWz4wF81P8s7i8848VW0oIuVxwL3CV6RObU5YqiJnb9zl5jQZjkL5A-x-q9Ak1m5sVtmyYEkx2IcM2WfETI5ireq-uwzo5KXQHQmdWY40MYOI3DTicO53s/s1600/Lee.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjEvad0WbbseN4_cSaHduZ2tHWz4wF81P8s7i8848VW0oIuVxwL3CV6RObU5YqiJnb9zl5jQZjkL5A-x-q9Ak1m5sVtmyYEkx2IcM2WfETI5ireq-uwzo5KXQHQmdWY40MYOI3DTicO53s/s320/Lee.jpg" width="320" /></a>The Korean keeps making it harder for me to leave him this low on the list with every passing edition, but he still hasn't tested himself against the best players in the world. He has pushed himself more in his scheduling this year, which is a good sign, but he hasn't had any great wins yet. He beat clay specialist Nicolas Kicker in the first round of qualifying at the Australian Open. Lee also beat Lukas Rosol and Daniel Brands in a Challenger Tour event which helps justify his ranking. He has a very smooth game, but doesn't have any weapons that can make him successful on the next level. His prospects aren't very high, but it is hard to ignore an 18-year old with his ranking.<br />
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<b>13. Stefanos Tsitsipas (GRE) Age: 18, Rank 206</b><br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhG-I0zyOEPxOdPhomw2zoRnSjARKjBehQ_-DC-ZsT4qNTWTQqBWgxvMW-2h22WaVSSK1_or5ytxZPyWHCTGYEwZfAgqKASJcLXfz8XWiSyog5QScU8h7li5dD271sYQ46NEiOiO4xSoL4/s1600/Tsitsipas.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="221" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhG-I0zyOEPxOdPhomw2zoRnSjARKjBehQ_-DC-ZsT4qNTWTQqBWgxvMW-2h22WaVSSK1_or5ytxZPyWHCTGYEwZfAgqKASJcLXfz8XWiSyog5QScU8h7li5dD271sYQ46NEiOiO4xSoL4/s320/Tsitsipas.jpg" width="320" /></a>The potential savior of serve-and-volley tennis is getting closer to making his big break through. He cracked the top 200 temporarily and had two very solid showings on indoor hard courts in February despite the losses. He is scheduling the toughest events, so his win-loss record right now isn't great, but he could easily go play lower-level events to boost his ranking. Tsitsipas is more concerned with testing his game against the best players in the world and this will help him develop quickly this season. It's great to see a player his age with such a well-defined game plan every time he steps onto the court, forcing opponents to adjust to his style of play. The big question will always be if that style can ever work again on the tour-level. Tsitsipas is the ultimate experiment of serve-and-volley tennis among professionals.<br />
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<b>14. Alex De Minaur</b> <b>(AUS) Age: 18, Rank 262</b><br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg6XeqBZaBnqagJUiFDHhfPDdpZjFy840WEChdE9hxJi4uqyeHCcooZTjZUUO2uD_SN8mipwPRl_Xh_HtOlzhfIt8gHCz7ABSvi7T7klshwz3lAIcu1OCcxp8y72qEEu0HBeFmqAf8I_Ns/s1600/De+Minaur.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="218" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg6XeqBZaBnqagJUiFDHhfPDdpZjFy840WEChdE9hxJi4uqyeHCcooZTjZUUO2uD_SN8mipwPRl_Xh_HtOlzhfIt8gHCz7ABSvi7T7klshwz3lAIcu1OCcxp8y72qEEu0HBeFmqAf8I_Ns/s320/De+Minaur.jpg" width="320" /></a>I held off on putting De Minaur on this list last year and hesitantly put him on the list last summer, but this time around it's a no-brainer. De Minaur made a splash during the Australian summer with wins over Mikhail Kukushkin, Frances Tiafoe and Benoit Paire to start the season. Then in front of a packed stadium, came back from two sets to one in defeating Gerald Melzer at the Australian Open. De Minaur hasn't played outside of his home country yet this year and that could be when we really get a sense of just how good he is, but he's off to a great start in 2017.<br />
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<b>15. Michael Mmoh (USA) Age: 19, Rank 185</b><br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi38HGQJC9imVhTJTCeMGRKbIafwsyhjbqM1FCEEciLJ74ZKjAj5c2w-EaDULACosubqLSBH8Nns0dDuJhXuk64qmVR-ukunLUM-9lhK7oc0jnLQs9f5FuciD-HEb7sAVcMQ60j7155BnI/s1600/Mmoh.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi38HGQJC9imVhTJTCeMGRKbIafwsyhjbqM1FCEEciLJ74ZKjAj5c2w-EaDULACosubqLSBH8Nns0dDuJhXuk64qmVR-ukunLUM-9lhK7oc0jnLQs9f5FuciD-HEb7sAVcMQ60j7155BnI/s200/Mmoh.jpg" width="135" /></a>Mmoh has made a home for himself in the top 200 in the last few months with a handful of attention-grabbing wins in 2017. He opened with a win against Grega Zemlja and then beat Greg Jones and Jerzy Janowicz down under. He has gone 6-3 in Challenger Tour events in the United States since then to reach a career-high ranking of 182. He is No. 73 in the Race to London Rankings with the help of his win in Knoxville to finish 2016. Mmoh has a great forehand and a lot of quickness around the court. His serve is excellent when he is making a high percentage, which gives him a reliable formula for success moving forward. He is one of many Americans that could be dominating the tour over the next 10 to 15 years. There's plenty to be excited about for American tennis fans.<br />
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<b>16. Roman Safiullin (RUS) Age: 19, Rank 411</b><br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjcWixXhY_u5fGI_WfnJ0HvJ5fX3ett-u7vcOH25RK0w2tvg6lZnEw9zTCElkIfeVFiOTrmP2ZD8W9-ZZqefTtNbEht8wNSTgGNncCCYpv-H5xdUKt-464t56t8diRR-c17yIT9nLXz9oA/s1600/Safiullin.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjcWixXhY_u5fGI_WfnJ0HvJ5fX3ett-u7vcOH25RK0w2tvg6lZnEw9zTCElkIfeVFiOTrmP2ZD8W9-ZZqefTtNbEht8wNSTgGNncCCYpv-H5xdUKt-464t56t8diRR-c17yIT9nLXz9oA/s200/Safiullin.jpg" width="133" /></a>Safiullin's career so far has been plagued by injuries, so he may take a lot longer than most players to reach his full potential. Hopefully injuries don't derail his whole career, because he has a very complete game that would be fun to watch at the highest level. Along with Khachenov and Rublev, the three Russians provide a hopeful future for tennis in the country. He has played qualifying for two Challenger events this year and picked up a pair of wins, but not any ranking points. If he drops down to the futures level, nobody will want to see their name next to his in the draw. Hopefully he will be healthy at some point this season, so that he can build his ranking back up to where it should be this year.<br />
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<b> 17. Marc Polmans (AUS) Age: 19, Rank 225</b><br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiuTl7qGTJv-uTaOrVVQFsfQh-v8xqL7UvWJMk0OSvZ5Liw3StvPVQeDYFnhC_pMI5n2AgIsGehOgbf7aXwzqjHpYqAb3qSfO37d2qBwN4A8XUU7vBuVuIwOKUI1WQdOu99Bvw-i58QLQ8/s1600/Polmans.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiuTl7qGTJv-uTaOrVVQFsfQh-v8xqL7UvWJMk0OSvZ5Liw3StvPVQeDYFnhC_pMI5n2AgIsGehOgbf7aXwzqjHpYqAb3qSfO37d2qBwN4A8XUU7vBuVuIwOKUI1WQdOu99Bvw-i58QLQ8/s320/Polmans.jpg" width="320" /></a>If there were a doubles version of this list, Polmans would be No. 1 after reaching the semifinals at the Australian Open in doubles. His singles game isn't at the same level, but his doubles success is still a very positive sign. He tends to rely a lot on the slice on the backhand side, but when he hits his backhand moving forward, it is a very effective shot. There's a big gap right now between the first and second serves, which can easily be improved. For someone so successful in doubles, he doesn't spend much time at the net in singles, which isn't necessarily a bad thing. Polmans can finish points from the baseline, which is good news for the Australian.<br />
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<b>18. Corentin Moutet (FRA) Age: 17, Rank 440</b><br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiuCHhj5bF-KBXZcdRWEj297mxZ8D4R6q2BM5bMFjSC3qRPUs9m68dz-ch6i5a7C2MGqNlUYKvAD3mm2Fa39sFsCPJn6Q-t3U9g42lGr3VOEJNB0MQfiNy4ifmlCvFFhuWc213gTG4Junw/s1600/Moutet.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiuCHhj5bF-KBXZcdRWEj297mxZ8D4R6q2BM5bMFjSC3qRPUs9m68dz-ch6i5a7C2MGqNlUYKvAD3mm2Fa39sFsCPJn6Q-t3U9g42lGr3VOEJNB0MQfiNy4ifmlCvFFhuWc213gTG4Junw/s320/Moutet.jpg" width="320" /></a>Moutet reached the quarterfinals of Cherbourg as a qualifier for the best result of his career to date as a professional. A 5-foot-9 left-hander, he looks like his game would be similar to that of Yoshihito Nishioka, but the Frenchman plays a very distinct style. Moutet has great ground strokes, but lacks the movement to hang with a lot of players from the baseline. His touch and his ball-striking at the baseline usually sets him up well when he does come to net. It is unique to be 5-foot-9 and want to end points quickly, but that will change as he develops physically to become more athletic. Once he improves his game defensively, he'll be much tougher to beat.<br />
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<b>19. Tommy Paul (USA) Age: 19, Rank 327</b><br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhRTRmJBrjAOxDv_2752svhFokWGeKmHGQLRNhz_Mdpo1QDlRycYj9UjJS8KDL_FZiKvNzKQEqSMaq9AtL4fHqZrE5UhPSciliVNWYZAiM2dE4gU1EyjK6iYc2pfwM_Bv-QcaE-m7DiVOU/s1600/Paul.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhRTRmJBrjAOxDv_2752svhFokWGeKmHGQLRNhz_Mdpo1QDlRycYj9UjJS8KDL_FZiKvNzKQEqSMaq9AtL4fHqZrE5UhPSciliVNWYZAiM2dE4gU1EyjK6iYc2pfwM_Bv-QcaE-m7DiVOU/s200/Paul.jpg" width="133" /></a>No player wants to go from the top 200 to playing in futures events, but that's what Paul had to do after his slump pulled his ranking down as low as 318. Paul responded by winning the futures title in Palm Cost, USA with just two sets dropped along the way. A number of players over the years have struggled to deal with the pressure of being a young successful player in the United States. Paul still has his whole career ahead of him and has already shown positive signs in his career. His best quality is his ability to win on any surface, which doesn't become useful until you reach the tour-level, but it's always nice to have in his back pocket. Once he gets inside the top 100, he won't leave for a long time.<br />
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<b>20. Nicola Kuhn (ESP) Age: 16, Rank 718</b><br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhNcbxLJ_maY1FarytBHBzbnK5fTne7tM7Zvune3lvieGPi5NPZeWQV8Ean9NASghRoQt3fXDk3YSxHbZ03KZb8DfdGHNT_HV6X-yx8fUSYeuZm2HGLKBJsuoGoEYi6BglSHIDGIrBUjO4/s1600/Kuhn.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhNcbxLJ_maY1FarytBHBzbnK5fTne7tM7Zvune3lvieGPi5NPZeWQV8Ean9NASghRoQt3fXDk3YSxHbZ03KZb8DfdGHNT_HV6X-yx8fUSYeuZm2HGLKBJsuoGoEYi6BglSHIDGIrBUjO4/s320/Kuhn.jpg" width="213" /></a>It's always hard to figure out who to finish this list with, but Nicola Kuhn is a tough one to miss since the future of Spanish tennis rides on his back. Spain has been the best tennis country for more than the last decade, but recently has dropped behind France in that distinction. Kuhn is the one that could change that. He is a unique Spaniard in that he prefers hard courts, which is where all five of his futures level wins this year have come from. Kuhn is ow a professional full time after playing a few Grade A events in the second half of the 2016 season. He reached a career-high ranking of No. 5 in the world in junior tennis. Kuhn results are impressive, but he is still having most of his success against players that aren't as talented as him. He has yet to start beating players that are on his level.<b> </b><br />
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<br />Second Serbhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08919114104091280616noreply@blogger.com4