Sunday, April 5, 2015

Could Miami become a clay-court event?

During the coverage of the Miami Open over the past week, Darren Cahill and Brad Gilbert discussed the idea of switching from Laycold Hard court to Har-Tru's clay. The plan is to make Miami the first event of the clay-court season, played on green clay, which is popular in the United States, but almost never used elsewhere. They would also rename the tournament U.S. Men's Clay Court Championship, which is currently the name of the tournament in Houston that immediately follows the tournament in Miami.

To be clear, this is only the idea of fans and commentators, but the tournament directors have not said anything to suggest that this change could happen. However, the idea of making such a drastic change to the tournament isn't as crazy as it sounds, since the tournament certainly has its fair share of issues.

Over the last four years, the tournament has had three different names as a result of major changes in sponsors, going from the Sony Ericsson Open to the Sony Open to the Miami Open presented by Itaú. Meanwhile, Roger Federer has begun to skip the tournament to get ready for the clay season. In total, seven players that would have been seeded ended up skipping the tournament for various reasons.

The biggest problem though is that the tournament in Miami is stuck under the shadow of Indian Wells. The two tournaments are both hard-court Masters 1000 (ATP) and Premier Mandatory (WTA) in the United States. They are both 96-player draws spread out over two weeks, meaning players get days off in between matches.

It is impossible not to make the comparison between Indian Wells, which wins all the awards and Miami, which is the only mandatory event that Federer regularly skips. And Matt Johnson made the comparison perfectly.

Here are the list of reasons for and against the change

Pros:

1. It would balances the schedule. As it stands right now, of the 14 major tournaments on the ATP (4 slams, 9 masters, 1 year-end final), nine of the tournaments are played on hard courts, four on clay courts, and just one is on grass. If there were nine clay court events and only four hard court events on the ATP World Tour, Rafael Nadal would have spent every healthy week of his career as the No. 1 player in the world. Having more events on clay would make it harder for hard-court specialists to ruin seedings at clay-court events, while allowing players who prefer clay an extra chance to get big ranking points.

2. It would get the tournament out of Indian Wells shadow. If Miami wants to stop being compared to Indian Wells, making it a clay event would make those comparisons less frequent. The two events could finally be seen as two separate events instead of always being called the Indian Wells-Miami double.

3. Gives advantage to Hispanic tennis players. It's no secret that Hispanic tennis players prefer to play on clay almost unanimously. It's also no secret that the fans in Miami want to see those players do better. Players from Latin American countries have always received great support from the crowds in Miami. The better those players perform in Miami, the more the fans get involved, resulting in a more successful tournament.

Cons:

1. It's a joint tournament. Part of the idea is to steal the name of the tournament in Houston, which is "U.S. Men's Clay Court Championship." The issue with that is pretty obvious. Women also play at this tournament. However, the answer isn't as simple as just dropping the "Men's" part. The women's version was abolished by the USTA back in 1986.

2. Name would ostracize the fan-base. As mentioned, the fans who attend Miami are largely Hispanic. One of the few things that separates Miami from Indian Wells is the identity it has developed as a Latin American event, and the biggest one on both the ATP and WTA. However, including the initials U.S. in the name really kills any chance of the tournament growing in that identity. Miami is a place with great diversity, and making it sound like it is limited to the United States would not help grow the fan-base.

3. The changes would hurt Indian Wells and Houston. If Miami were switched to a clay tournament, Indian Wells would suddenly become the only big hard court event after the Australian Open. There is already a series of clay tournaments going on in February, so it would become awfully tempting for the top players to start preparing for clay right after the Australian Open and simply skipping Indian Wells like Federer is already doing in Miami.

As for Houston, Miami would be completely stealing their thunder. Not only would Houston lose its name, it would lose its status as the first stop on the clay-court season. If a mandatory tournament like Miami is being overshadowed by Indian Wells, how much worse would the problem be for a 250 like Houston. Casablanca is already having major issues drawing top players with Guillermo Garcia-Lopez getting the top seed. Houston would have the same issue potentially.

4. Green clay is not real clay. If you thought the blue clay experiment was a disaster, imagine trying to make Rafael Nadal play on green clay. Even if the clay was painted red like it was in San Diego last year for the Davis Cup tie, the way it plays is exactly the same. If the Har-Tru logo is anywhere on the court, the top players will have a problem with it. Har-Tru is now very popular on the American clay court challenger events, but many of the top players have never even stepped on a Har-Tru court. Now, imagine how they will react when such an important tournament is played on that surface.

My Opinion: Something certainly has to change. Miami has a lot of problems, and I have no doubt that people who have actually been to the tournament could point out a host of other problems. However, I think switching the clay would only create new problems. If they do switch to clay, it would have to be a true brick-dust clay to get the top players on board with the idea.

That would solve a few of the problems, but only bring up new ones. Such a quick transition from hard courts to clay courts will not be popular. The damage it would do to the tour as a whole would just be too much to justify solving the problems the tournament in Miami currently faces. 

Friday, April 3, 2015

The GOAT List

25. Ken Rosewall- As part of a golden era in Australian tennis, Rosewall was known for his slice passing shots.The former world No. 2 would be higher on the list if the peak of his career wasn't before the Open Era. He still won four grand slam titles and 445 matches.

24. Yevgeny Kafelnikov- When you look at the former world No. 1's stats, nothing really jumps out at you, but the Russian did a little bit of it all. He was atop the rankings for six weeks, won two majors, knocked out 46 top 10 opponents, won 26 titles, and was victorious in 609 matches.

23. Andy Roddick- The last American to win a grand slam spent 13 weeks atop the rankings, won 32 titles, and ranks 16th all-time in win percentage (74.2%).

22. Michael Chang- The former world No. 2 won his only grand slam title when he was only 17. Even though he never won another major, he did collect 34 titles and 51 wins against top 10 opponents.


21. John Newcombe- At 30-years old, the Australian finally reached world No. 1. Newcombe won five majors in the open era and won 31 tournaments.

20. Thomas Muster- If these were clay court rankings, he would be top 10, but he spent six weeks as the top ranked player in the world and won 44 titles.

19. Arthur Ashe- The player whose name is on the center court at the US Open is best known as a humanitarian, but the former world No. 2 won three grand slam titles and 623 matches in his career.


18. Rod Laver- Laver is the one of the greatest tennis players in all of tennis history, but the bulk of his career came before the Open Era, and since computer rankings didn't begin until 1973, he was never ranked higher than three in the world. However, Laver still won five majors and 42 titles in the Open Era, including the last calendar slam in tennis.


17. Jim Courier- The American spent over a year as the best player in the world, winning four grand in three years. Courier is one of the only Americans to have success on both clay and hard courts. Although most fans would rank Courier between 10 to 15, his inability to dominate lower ranked opponents hurt his ability to rack up titles. Courier won only 23 titles and lost 164 matches to players outside the top 10.


16. Ilie Năstase- The Romanian was the first person ever ranked No. 1 according to the computers. The two-time grand slam champion is another player who would have been higher on the list if his whole career was in the Open Era. He still won 750 matches and 56 titles, dominating the ATP World Tour when it first began.

15. Guillermo Vilas- The Argentine was the third winningest player of all time notching an incredible 923 match wins as well as 63 titles, including four grand slams. However, that is where the former world No. 2's list of accomplishments ends. Aside from failing to reach world No. 1, he only had 29 wins over top 10 opponents. Vilas is widely considered the best No. 2 player in tennis history, but failing to reach world No. 1 knocked him several spots down on this list.


14. Andy Murray- The Brit is still moving slowly up this list. He is now a three-time grand slam champion and he ranks ninth in tennis history in wins against top-10 opponents. He is the highest ranked player on this list to never be No. 1. By the time his career is over, he could easily be inside the top 10 of this list, especially if he reaches No. 1 at some point.

13. Lleyton Hewitt- As a young Australian, Hewitt spent 80 weeks as the top-ranked player in the world, but failed to live up to his potential, winning just two majors and 28 total tournaments, while suffering countless injuries. Aside from being the best player in the game for 80 weeks, his top accomplishment was his 65 match wins over top 10 foes. Although Hewitt is still competing, he is far from the player he was just over a decade ago.

12. Mats Wilander- The Swede made his way this high on the list for one reason and one reason only. The guy knew how to win majors. Seven of his 33 titles were at the slams. That is the third best ratio of any player on this list. His win percentage was 7.5% higher in majors. Wilander only spent 20 weeks as the world No. 1 and only won 571 matches. Those numbers are good, but they are way below average for a top 15 player on this list. Wilander consistently rose to the occasion when it mattered most at the majors, winning seven grand slams in the span of seven years.

11. Boris Becker- If 713 wins wasn't enough for the six-time grand slam winner to crack the top 10 on all GOAT lists, then maybe I should remind you that 121 of his wins were against top 10 ranked opponents. That is the third most in tennis history. Becker also won 49 titles and was the world No. 1 for 12 weeks. Becker was a model for consistency, winning at least two tournaments every year for 12 consecutive years. At just 18 years of age in 1986, Becker reached nine tournament finals and won Wimbledon for the second consecutive year. Becker went on to win one more Wimbledon, the US Open, and the Australian Open twice.

10. Stefan Edberg- When it comes to Edberg the numbers speak for themselves. 72 weeks as world No. 1, six grand slam titles, 41 tournaments won, and 801 match wins. However, what may be most impressive was the way he handled the other legends of his era. Edberg totalled 47 combined wins against Becker, Lendl, Chang, and Wilander. Edberg's biggest weakness was his clay court game, but he made up for it with two major titles at each of the non-clay slams.


9. Andre Agassi- The American may not be the statistical leader in any category, but he was one of the most well rounded players to ever play. Agassi dominated on every surface and is one of only two male singles tennis players to achieve the career golden slam. Agassi finished his career with eight grand slam titles and 60 tournaments won over the span of 19 years. The former world No. 1 won 870 matches and spent over 100 weeks atop the rankings.

8. Björn Borg- A lot of fans would put Borg in the top five, but he is getting any bonus points from me for quitting when he was just 25. However, his dominance in just eight years on the world tour is still enough to place eighth on this list. In that short span, he won an incredible 64 tournaments, including 11 majors. Borg also spent 109 weeks as world No. 1 and won over 70% of his matches against top 10 opponents. Even more impressive than that is his 89.8% win rate at the slams. His numbers are astonishing, but we can only wonder how good he could have been if he continued playing for another eight years.


7. John McEnroe- Known more for his tirades than actually playing tennis, McEnroe truly is one of the greatest players in tennis history. The five-time Wimbledon finalist ranks fifth in the Open Era in weeks at No. 1, titles, and wins. In 1984, the American won 13 titles and only lost three matches in the entire year. McEnroe finished his career with 77 titles, which ranks third in the Open Era. Along with seven grand slam titles, he spent 170 weeks as the World No. 1. McEnroe finished his career with 875 match wins. Where McEnroe made his mark in tennis was in Davis Cup ties. McEnroe led the United States to five Davis Cup titles. McEnroe also won eight year-end Championships. Five at the WCT Finals and three at the Masters.

6. Rafael Nadal- Now that Nadal is tied for the second most grand slam titles on the all-time list, the debate for the greatest of all time is usually centered around him and Federer. Nadal also ranks third all-time in wins against top 10 opponents, which is one of the main stats that I look at when creating this list. However, Djokovic has now bumped Nadal out of the top five. While Nadal does have as many grand slam titles as Sampras and more than both Connors. Lendl and Djokovic, almost two-thirds of his major titles have come from the same event. As a result, Nadal has only accumulated 141 weeks as the world No. 1, which is barely half of what Connors and Lendl each have. Nadal is now 29, so he will continue to rack up titles and match wins and could eventually crack the top four, but he isn't there yet.


5. Jimmy Connors- The American is the winningest player of all time with 1243 match wins and 109 titles. When the first set of computer rankings came out, Connors was listed as No. 10 in the world. At 38 years of age in 1989, Connors was still ranked in the top 10 in the world. It wasn't until 1996 that Connors finally left the top 500 for good at the age of 45. However, the Americans only accomplishments weren't just the length of his career. Connors won over 80% of his matches, eight majors, and spent 268 weeks as the No. 1 in the world. Connors dominance is often overlooked, because it was stretched over a span of 20 years, but looking at the whole body of work, Connors is clearly among the four greatest tennis players in the Open Era.

4. Ivan Lendl- In my opinion, the most underrated player of all time, Lendl was the greatest player in the Open Era when he retired in 1994. When you look at the GOAT lists of other tennis fans, some list him as eight or nine or don't include Lendl in the top 10. That is nuts when you see that Lendl is in the top five for the Open Era in major titles, weeks at No. 1, titles, wins, and win percentage. Most fans rank him so low, because he lost 11 grand slam finals. However, I think that reaching 19 grand slam finals is yet another reason to rank him in the top four on GOAT lists. Lendl won eight grand slam titles and was the No. 1 player in the world for an incredible 270 weeks. Lendl also won 94 titles and 1071 matches, while maintaining a .818 win percentage.


3. Novak Djokovic- Djokovic has made incredible strides in the last five years, turning himself from a one-slam wonder to one of the greatest players the game has ever seen. Djokovic compiled the greatest season ever in 2015 and in 2016 he became the first player since Rod Laver to win the Grand Slam. Djokovic is only 29 years old and his prime years could last a little longer. Catching up to Sampras is certainly within reach if he is still the No. 1 player in the world this time next year. Then maybe we can start to talk about Djokovic chasing the greatest player of all time, but that is still a long way away.

2. Pete Sampras- The American is considered in the top 3 on almost every GOAT list in tennis and rightfully so. Sampras absolutely dominated the grand slams from the 1993 Wimbledon to the 2002 US Open winning 14 of the 41 majors, including a stretch of seven Wimbledon titles in eight years. Sampras knew all about playing his best when it mattered most at the slams. Sampras's win percentage in slams was 9.0% higher than in the rest of his matches. Sampras also had a stranglehold on the title of No. 1 player in the world in his career, holding the top ranking for 286 weeks. Sampras ranks second all time in wins over top 10 opponents with 124 and has 64 titles to his name.


1. Roger Federer- This is case closed by now. Federer is the leader in majors won, weeks at No.1, wins against top 10 opponents, and he is still going. Federer's records at the slams shatter those of any other player in the Open Era. Federer has spent 302 weeks as the world No. 1. Federer was the tyrant of the ATP rankings from early 2004 to the summer of 2008. From 2004 to 2006, he lost a total of just 15 matches. Federer has won 17 grand slam titles. The Swiss has reached the final of each grand slam tournament at least five times, and at one point, reached 10 consecutive finals. Some argue that Federer played in a week era from 2004 to 2008, but any era would look weak when one player dominates it so thoroughly. If you look at how Federer performed against the players who were ranked No. 1 in the world before him, you can see that he dominated even against the best opponents. Federer had a .760 win percentage against Agassi, Hewitt, Ferrero, and Roddick combined. Federer dominated the sport more so than any other player and did so for a longer amount of time than any other player. Therefore, he is the GOAT.

Friday, March 6, 2015

Racket Rally Fantasy Insider: Indian Wells

This is the third installment of the new series, which features fantasy tips and rankings for Racket RallyYou can find a more detailed explanation of the series here.

The February grind is almost over with Indian Wells right around the corner. This is a crucial tournament on both the ATP and WTP tours, giving the winner 1000 points. However, anything less than a title results in more points for WTP players, so don't pay more for an unseeded player on the ATP than an unseeded player on the WTA unless they have a very good shot at reaching the round of 32.

Tip of the Week: Drop a player every week
Every week you get one free sale, so do not miss it. Even if you only have five players on your profile, there is someone that needs to be sold. You can either sell someone who is defending a lot of points in the upcoming week, has a tough draw in the next tournament, or perhaps not even playing in the next week. There is a very small chance of actually having the perfect roster for a week, so there is some move that can be made to make your profile better. You can go out and buy a new player or buy more shares of who you already have.

Top Prospects vs. Drop Prospects
Top Prospects
1. Vera Zvonareva, 30, RUS
Price per share: $333

Zvonareva is still a good deal, so whatever spare money you have should be spent on her if you don't already have 50 of her shares. She is by far the cheapest direct entrance into either draw in Indian Wells, where she will play an unseeded player for a shot at 35 ranking points. Then it will be the same scenario in Miami, but this is a buy for the long term. By the end of the year, her value will be at least double what it is now, so buy before the price goes up.
2. Benoit Paire, 25, FRA
Price per share: $512
Paire is another player that is drastically underpriced as he makes a comeback from injury. He is tearing it up on the Challenger Tour right now, so whether he plays in Indian Wells and Miami or stays with Challenger events, he is going to get you points. If you have enough cap space, by 50 shares of him. Buy while he is still cheap. He belongs in the top 50 in the world and he will be there soon. If you can pay the price of a player outside the top 100 for a player inside the top 50, that is a massive steal.
3. Marcos Baghdatis, 29, CYP
Price per share: $788

This isn't as good of a deal as it was when Racket Rally first started, but it still is a very good deal, yet few people have many shares of Baghdatis. He is a former top 10 player and still an excellent shot-maker. He will play in Indian Wells and Miami, but this is another buy for the long term. If you have 50 shares of Baghdatis, Paire, and Zvonareva, you are in a good spot right now. The one worry might be that Baghdatis retired from his last match at 6-6 in the third set. Buying on someone even slightly injured is never a good idea just because of how risky it is.
4. Steve Johnson, 25, USA
Price per share: $971
Johnson's name has not popped up much in Racket Rally talks, but now is the time to buy on the former college tennis champion. He has a ton of points in the non-countable category, which means he won't really get much cheaper than he is now. He certainly isn't underpriced, but over the next five weeks, he is someone you want on your profile. He will play Indian Wells, Irving (where he will be a top 4 seed), Miami, and Houston. Each of these events are in the United States, where he always does well, and there are no weeks off in between (unless he loses early in Miami, but there are no challengers that week). He is the highest-ranked male tennis player with four tournaments coming up in the next five weeks. However, its unlikely you will continue reaping the benefits of this buy after Houston. Be sure to sell all stocks of his after that week.
5. Serena Williams, 33, USA
Price per share: $9,592

The No. 1 player in the world is making her return to Indian Wells, and I normally wouldn't suggest spending over $9k per share on a player that is over 30-years old, but for one tournament this could be a good move. Williams is defending nothing at Indian Wells, but there are a few potential problems with this move. She is defending a title at Miami and then not playing anything until Madrid, meaning that this is a one week addition, and anything less than a title would not be worth the price. Still, Williams is the most dominant player on either tour. It seems like a safe bet that she will go on to win the title.
Drop Prospects

1. Laurent Lokoli, 20, FRA
Price per share: $230

The goal of Racket Rally is to get main draw wins and in six tournaments this year, Lokoli has just one main draw win, which means he has been worth a grand total of eight points all year to those who have bought him. After he qualified for the Australian Open, it looked like a good deal to buy him, because he costed very little and had the potential to win a lot. However, that hasn't been the case. Although he is now getting directly into Challenger main draws, just wait until he starts getting some wins. You will still be able to get him at a low price for a while to come if he does end up turning his season around.
2. Denis Istomin, 28, UZB
Price per share: $770
At 28-years old, it would be reasonable to think that Istomin could have the best year of his career in 2015, but we are two months in and that ship has already sailed. He is 3-7 this year without a single quality win. If you bought him early in the season like I did, because he was scheduled to play a lot of tournaments early in the year, you are paying more for him now than he is worth. That is an automatic sale every time. He doesn't have a lot to defend at any point this season, but if he keeps losing he will continually slowly drop in value.
3. John Isner, 29, USA
Price per share: $1,720
You don't need to read a fantasy insider piece to know that you absolutely do not want John Isner on your roster. He just lost to James Ward in Davis Cup, which is yet another disappointing loss since he started working with Justin Gimelstob. He is in a serious slump and very expensive. That money could be better used on many other players. He is certainly worth using a court coin on if necessary to get rid of him. Maybe he will be worth the cost when his 600 points from Cincinnati come falling off right before the US Open.
4. Ernests Gulbis, 26, LAT
Price per share: $2,045
Gulbis probably belongs at No. 1 on this list, but I think by now everyone has already sold their shares of Gulbis. If you are one of the few holding onto your shares of him, you are doing the rest of the Racket Rally Universe a big favor. Gulbis is a horrible 0-5 this year, largely in part to a right arm injury. Meanwhile, he has a ton of points to defend. Since he has continued playing tournaments, he won't get protected points when he drops outside of the top 100 in a few months. Maybe if his injuries are gone by then, he could actually be a really good buy. Until then, stop wasting your money.
5. Novak Djokovic, 27, SRB
Price per share: $13,165
In Racket Rally, it is nice to have one player in your roster that you know won't ever lose early. However, Djokovic hardly plays any tournaments, and not playing a tournament is no more helpful than losing in the first round. You can pay way less for a first round loss than you would pay to have Djokovic take up a spot in your profile. Also, Djokovic has a mountain of points to defend between now and Wimbledon. I've said it before, if you are completely stuck on the idea of having Djokovic on your team, at least wait until right before Canada to buy him back.

*All photos are from the racketrally.com site and are credited there.

Friday, February 13, 2015

Racket Rally Fantasy Insider: Rio, Marseille, Delray Beach

This is the third installment of the new series, which features fantasy tips and rankings for Racket RallyYou can find a more detailed explanation of the series here.

Tip of the Week: Start investing in the WTA

Now is the time to go out and get a few women's players, but not just any women's player. Go specifically for the players playing in Monterrey or Kuala Lumpur. The men's tour will be playing Davis Cup that week, which means that all points will come from the women's tour except from Challenger Tour points earned in Quimper, which is just a 90-point tournament in France.

Make sure you check the list of players in those tournaments and start buying them this week.

Top Prospects vs. Drop Prospects

This week's top/drop prospects is going to be abbreviated, since we are still in the February grind, but there will be another full-length Fantasy Insider piece in a couple weeks ahead of Indian Wells.

Top Prospects: This week's top prospects are both attractive additions for similar reasons. Both are massively under-priced, because as they fight to get their ranking back to where it was a couple years ago, and both players are in action the next two weeks before Indian Wells.

The first is Vera Zvonareva, who has protected points, but can still be bought for as little as $290. Her price will go up only slightly next week, so you could wait a week to get her, but might as well get her now at a lower price before she goes to Dubai, where she could earn 60 points per share with just one win. She will then play in Monterrey, being unseeded, but with a decent draw could earn a couple wins and get MVP if she makes a big run.

The other is Benoit Paire, who has received a wild card in Marseille and then will play Quimper. He is still in the draw in Bergamo, so his price could go up a lot next week if he keeps winning. He currently can be bought for as little as $366 per share. Just a couple years ago, he had been ranked as high as 24 and is only 25-years old now. This would be a great long-term addition to your line-up, so buy as many of him as you can afford.

Drop Prospects: If you are still holding onto Roger Federer, Novak Djokovic, or Rafael Nadal, I would drop all three of them. However, this week's drop prospect is Belinda Bencic. She is playing Dubai this week, so keeping her one more week won't hurt, but you should be dropping her sooner rather than later, and a lot of people have her on their roster.

Most people bought her ahead of the Australian Open, when she costed $1,391 per share. She hasn't won a match since then and her price has dropped to $1,280, meaning a lot of people are overpaying for her. Drop her now and maybe buy her back after the first week of April at a much lower price, when he points from Charleston fall off her ranking. After Charleston, she has very little to defend until the US Open.

*All photos are from the racketrally.com site and are credited there. 

Thursday, February 5, 2015

Top 20 Under 20: Part 2

Just over half a year ago, I posted a ranking of the 20 best teenagers on the ATP at the time. Now after two grand slams, I am reevaluating the list with new players breaking through and other teenagers crossing the 20-year mark. This is not a ranking of their current form (there is already a computer ranking for that), but rather a ranking of how good of a career each player could have.

In less than a year, the landscape of teenage tennis has changed dramatically. In April 2014, the highest-ranked teenager was Nick Kyrgios at No. 221 in the world. This week, there are eight teenagers ranked inside the top 200 and Kyrgios is still leading the way at No. 35 in the world. The current teenagers are bursting onto the scene in a way that players weren't doing a couple years ago with a whole group of teenagers coming through together.

This is my list of the 20 most promising talents in tennis that are under 20 years old.

1. Nick Kyrgios (AUS) 19-years old, No. 35 -- The last time a teenager reached a grand slam quarterfinal, it was Bernard Tomic at the 2011 Wimbledon Championships. Tomic's run was extremely impressive, but what makes Kyrgios' even better is that he backed it up with a trip to the quarterfinals in Melbourne. Both times, the young Australian benefited from an upset blowing open his section of the draw, but he still had to take out some in form players along the way and he did it in dramatic fashion. Kyrgios still doesn't have much experience on the ATP outside of the slams, which makes it tricky to know how to judge the ranking of No. 35. He has a few months before he has to defend anything, so the ranking should go up, but this isn't going to be a steady climb to the top 10 for Kyrgios. He is extremely talented, so there is no reason to panic if he drops out of the top 50 before the end of the year. In the meantime, he will likely be seeded at Roland Garros and Wimbledon, so we will get a better sense of how good he really is at those events.

2. Borna Coric (CRO) 18-years old, No. 91 -- Being an 18-year old in the top 100 alone lands Coric one of the top spots. Expectations sky-rocketed to unrealistic levels after his win over Rafael Nadal last year, but he certainly does have the talent. He has made one of the quickest transitions from the junior circuit to the world tour level of any player from his generation. He is 1-4 so far in 2015, but played very well in a four-set loss to Jeremy Chardy in Melbourne. After his Zagreb loss, he might need to go back to the Challenger Tour a bit to develop his game and get more match-play and confidence. He is only 18, so there is no hurry here. His potential is very obvious to those who watch him play. He is going to be a key figure on tour for the next 10 to 15 years.

3. Roman Safiullin (RUS) 17-years old, No. 333 -- When I made my first list, Safiullin had only just started his career, and he still hasn't been ranked for a full year yet, but nobody is more on fire at any level of tennis than this 17-year old. After reaching the Russian F5 final, he went on a 26-match winning streak that including five futures titles. Then right after having that streak snapped, he won the junior Australian Open title. He didn't stop after that. He went straight to Burnie where he got through qualifying and advanced to the second round after a three-set win over Jordan Thompson - his first career Challenger Tour victory. In his first year as a professional, he has a 42-4 record in future events with six titles in seven finals, winning over half of the events he enters. He has dominated the futures tour in a way that nobody has dominated either the Challenger or ATP World Tours in the last year.

4. Andrey Rublev (RUS) 17-years old, No. 437 -- Rublev isn't moving on my list. He was at No. 4 six months ago and he has validated that spot on the list. The No. 1 junior in the world may have been surpassed by his countryman, but he too is on a tear right now. After reaching a futures final in Estonia in October, Rublev went on a nine-match winning streak on the senior level. Rublev won the title in at the Dominican Republic F4, defeating red-hot Mitch Krueger in the final, 6-2, 6-4. Then to start 2015, he successfully qualified in the Dallas Challenger, a $100,000 event. He backed that up by taking out No. 3 seed Blaz Rola in three sets for his first career Challenger Tour victory. With a focus on the senior level now, Rublev should see his ranking rise significantly this year.

5. Jared Donaldson (USA) 18-years old, No. 178 -- Just before I had made my first list, Donaldson had won his first Challenger match. Now, he has just won his first Challenger title. He has been on the senior level full-time longer than most of the other 18-year olds on this list and that's reflected in his ranking. He is going to be top 100 a lot sooner than his peers, but the question will be if he can continue to develop and improve once he does start playing on the World Tour level. Another question will be his ability to adapt away from the American hard courts. He has not yet played a challenger match on clay, but did do well in his three clay tournaments at the futures level, which were all on clay. In his run to the one clay title, he didn't drop a single set and didn't lose more than four games in any set. Then in the final, he thrashed Nikola Milojevic, who at the time was another high-profile teenager.

6. Alexander Zverev (GER) 17-years old, No. 135 -- The German dropped a few spots in my rankings since last time, but he is still one of the teens that justifies the hype surrounding him. His results dropped off significantly for a few months after reaching the Hamburg semifinals, which sky-rocketed his ranking. He started playing world tour events, which may have been premature. He went 3-9 on tour after reaching the semifinals in Hamburg, which includes his qualifying results, and his only win of those three that was against a player inside the top 200 was by retirement. Still, the tools that were on display in Hamburg were no fluke. He is 6-foot-6 and moves comfortably on clay. His serve will have to become more of a weapon, but he already has very good groundstrokes. At this point, he is much further along than any other 17-year old.

7. Hyeon Chung (KOR) 18-years old, No. 151 -- Chung is currently the only Korean inside the top 400 of the world rankings, making him one of three players on this list to be their country's No. 1. This may not be the era for court specialists any more, but there are ways to find success on tour without a great clay court record. Chung has only played one clay match on the senior level, which he lost in three sets to Daniel Cox. Aside from absolute beat downs against Omar Jasika and Nikola Milojevic along with an impressive three-set win over clay specialist Christian Garin, Chung didn't have much success on clay in Juniors. His double-bagel victory over Jasika did eventually lead to a Grade 1 title however. On hard courts, the Korean has been dominant, winning four futures titles and one challenger title. Most recently, he took 20-year old British hope Kyle Edmund to the woodshed for a 6-3, 6-2 victory in the Burnie Challenger. In main draw matches at all levels of the senior tour, he is 70-32 on hard courts, and his results are becoming more consistent on the Challenger Tour. He is currently into the final of the Burnie Challenger.

8. Yoshihito Nishioka (JAP) 19-years old, No. 155 -- Nishioka is another player that represents the rise of tennis in east Asia, which has been a result of several factors, and is undoubtedly good for the sport as a whole. Nishioka is currently the No. 4 Japanese right now, but by the end of the year he could be the No. 2 behind only Kei Nishikori. Just last June he was playing in a futures event in Japan, and after winning the title he hasn't looked back as he made the switch to the Challenger Tour. He reached the semifinals in Hong Kong last week, where he lost to Edmund. However, his biggest result of his career so far came last November. After qualifying for the US Open in his first appearance at a major on the senior level, he was forced to retire with an injury in the first round. He then headed straight to Shanghai for a Challenger event during the second week of the US Open. He went on to win that tournament Somdev Devvarman and James Duckworth along the way. The 5-foot-7 south paw has great movement around the court along with incredible racket control. He also has a follow-through on his forehand similar to that of Rafael Nadal, which prevents him from being aggressive, but makes his forehand very reliable. As his game develops, he will probably have to go away from that a bit on the faster courts.

9. Thanasi Kokkinakis (AUS) 18-years old, No. 143 -- For most players, I explain why I'm excited enough about their game to put them where I do on the list. However, for Kokkinakis, he is so talented I actually have to explain why he isn't higher on the list. He is extremely talented and has great results on both the junior and senior levels, which is why he is one of the most-hyped players on this list. He even beat the No. 13 player in the world in five sets at a grand slam. No other 18-year old has nearly as impressive of a win. However, his abysmal record on clay courts without the hard court dominance that Chung has had are why he isn't higher on the list. He has just one futures title on hard courts and has never reached a Challenger Tour final. On clay courts he went 2-10 at the futures level. He has lost both of his indoor matches as well. He did play well at the Heilbronn II Challenger, which is on clay and almost qualified for Roland Garros, falling 5-7 in the third set of the final round. However, almost all of his notable results have been on outdoor hard courts in North America and Australia. Still, there is no doubt he belongs in the top 10 and there are few who would also put him as low as No. 9.

10. Elias Ymer (SWE) 18-years old, No. 188 -- Playing in his first career grand slam on the senior level this year, the Swede qualified after defeating Chung in straight sets in the last round. He went on to take Go Soeda to five sets, before dropping the final set 3-6. Ymer saw his ranking climb almost 600 spots last year as he played exclusively senior level events for the first time. His three-set win over Igor Sijsling to start 2015 is the closest thing he has to a signature win. However, he does have an impressive overall record, particularly on clay where he has wrapped up five futures titles in just 11 events and has also won four of his seven challenger events. Now that he has cracked the top 200, he is going to have to defend his futures level results with wins on the Challenger Tour. He may drop back out of the top 200, but his career has a good trajectory at this point.

11. Christian Garin (CHI) 18-years old, No. 249 -- Garin has dropped in my list since last time, because he has done little to show that he is any more than another South American clay specialist. Despite having first cracked the top 300 back in September, he is still dabbling in the futures level. His one appearance in 2015 was at a Challenger qualifying event, which hopefully means he will try to test himself more at that level this year. He has the game to do well at that level at least on clay. If he ever develops his hard-court game he could be in the top 50 in the world someday. Otherwise, he could get stuck just inside the top 100 playing just Roland Garros, clay 250 events, and Challenger events for the rest of his career, which wouldn't be a bad career. Still, the potential is there if he starts spending more time on hard courts.

12. Laslo Djere (SRB) 19-years old, No. 288 -- At 19-years and 8-months, Djere is one of the oldest players on this list. He had an extremely successful junior career, but hasn't developed much on the senior level. He is still stuck playing future events, winning just three career Challenger matches in two tournaments. All three of those wins came in Casablanca earlier this year, which may have saved him from falling off this list completely. He did that after coming up through the qualifying event. In the first round of the main draw, he knocked out world No. 108 Daniel Gimeno-Traver in three sets on clay, which is by far his most note-worthy win on the senior level. He prefers clay courts, but he does have a 21-9 record with one title on hard courts at the futures level. Before eventually losing to Javier Marti in the semifinals of Casablanca, Djere was on a 10-match winning streak, dating back to that one hard court title that closed out his 2014. With a couple consecutive impressive results, it will be interesting to see how the Serb backs those up.

13. Francis Tiafoe (USA) 17-years old, No. 798 -- If you have seen Tiafoe on television, YouTube, or in person, you know he has a level of athleticism that a good chunk of players in the top 100 don't have. If you have seen Tiafoe on paper, you wonder what the hype is all about. He really doesn't have a large body of work to analyze, and he ended 2014 on a three-match losing streak. However, he does have wins over Rublev and the majority of the other top American teenagers. His titles at the Pan American ITF and Orange Bowl are two of his most impressive results and he was only 15-years old at the time. He is starting to garner attention again like he did in 2013 with consecutive semifinal appearances at the futures level, including his first final at USA F5. Both of his losses in 2015 came to 32-year old Benjamin Balleret, who Tiafoe beat in qualifying for Atlanta last year. Tiafoe has issues with his serve, but his speed and power off the forehand are two things that will never go into slumps.

14. Taylor Fritz (USA) 17-years old, No. 919 -- The bottom of this list gets a little bit American heavy, but it is justified. The only question is which of this batch of teenage Americans do I choose. Fritz is still playing junior events, where he dominated last fall, winning Grade A events in Japan and Mexico. En route to those titles, he claimed wins over Seong Chan Hong, Yunseong Chung, and Andrey Rublev, who are all well established in the top 10 of the junior rankings. He has also defeated Juame Munar and Orlando Luz in junior events. In his one senior level event of 2015, he reached the semifinals with wins over other top American prospects Dennis Novikov, Mackenzie McDonald, and Stefan Kozlov. In the semifinal, he was just a point away from defeating Jason Jung for what would have been his first career final on the senior level.

15. Stefan Kozlov (USA) 17-years old, No. 412 -- Kozlov is another player where it is hard to justify having him so low on the list. Most people would put him much higher. He has incredible hands, a very reliable backhand, and composure that is rare for someone who just turned 17-years old. Outside of the top nine on this list, nobody has a more impressive single result than Kozlov, who advanced to the final of the Sacramento Challenger with four very impressive wins over established names on the Challenger Tour like Ryan Harrison, John Patrick Smith, Rhyne Williams, and Tim Smyczek before eventually falling to Sam Querrey. Any other 16-year old would be out of place facing that lineup of talent, but Kozlov more than held his own. He is now full-time on the senior level and is already testing the waters of the Challenger Tour more frequently. He most recently reached the quarterfinals in Maui after reaching the quarterfinals at his two previous tournaments in the futures level.

16. Seong Chan Hong (KOR) 17-years old, No Ranking -- Last time, one of the requirements was that the player must have a current ATP ranking, but not this time. Hong has only played in one main draw in futures in almost two years, but in the meantime, he has torn it up in Juniors. He is ranked No. 3 in the world in the Junior rankings after reaching the Australian Open final, defeating Fritz along the way. He started 2015 on an 11-match winning streak that includes a title at Traralgon, which is a Grade 1 tournament. He also has wins over Nathan Ponwith, Mikael Ymer, Tommy Paul, and Naoki Nakagawa all since the last June. He is one of four Koreans on this list, so it is exciting times ahead for that country.

17. Duck Hee Lee (KOR) 16-years old, No. 502 -- What a mistake it was to leave Lee off the list last time. At just 16-years old he is already knocking on the door of the top 500, while maintaining a junior ranking in the top 10. He has been ranked as high as No. 3 in the Junior Rankings, and has claimed wins over Seon Chan Hong and Juame Munar, but has otherwise struggled against the other top juniors. On the futures tour, he has had more success, playing only hard court events and collecting a 44-23 record with two titles in four finals. He did beat Johan Sebastian Tatlot en route to the more recent of his two titles.

18. Ernesto Escobedo (USA) 18-years old, 535 -- There isn't much to go off of here considering that just a couple months ago Escobedo's ATP Ranking was better than his career-high in Juniors and he has only played 21 senior level events. Escobedo, who practices at Azusa Pacific University in southern California doesn't travel much to play tennis with the vast majority of his matches being played in driving distance of his home. The best look the tennis world got of Escobedo came in US Open qualifying, where he defeated  World No. 154 James Duckworth in straight sets to reach the final round of qualifying, where he lost with a shoulder injury that derailed the rest of his 2014. He is making this list primarily based on the possibility that he ends up being one of the most successful out of all of the players on this list. He has huge weapons that can hit anyone off the court. If he can stay healthy and get more match-play, he could make a huge jump in the rankings this year and really get more attention from other sources.

19. Yun Seong Chung (KOR) 16-years old, 1005 -- He isn't as young of a 16-year old as Lee and is ranked significantly lower, but he does have more eye-catching results than his countryman. He only played four events last year and they were all on the futures level other than one Challenger qualifying event. He would have had the chance to face John Millman, which would have been a good measuring-stick match, but the Australian withdrew before the match. At the Junior US Open, he defeated Michael Mmoh, who just missed out on this list. He also has defeated his countryman Lee to win a title in New Dehli, and also reached the final in Osaka, Japan where he lost a tightly-contested final to Fritz.

20. Noah Rubin (USA) 18-years old, No. 637 -- We will have to wait a couple years to really find out how good Rubin is, because he decided the spend the next year playing college tennis at Wake Forest, but there is already a small sample size to go off of, which includes his title at the Junior Wimbledon as a qualifier. On his way to the title, he went through the gauntlet of American junior tennis, beating Tiafoe, Fritz, and Kozlov all along the way. That is one of only two Junior tournaments he played in the last year, and his senior results have not been nearly as impressive. College will likely be good for him in the long run, but for now Rubin's professional career is on hold.