The GOAT Debate & Short Memory

Right now, there are a wave of people admitting for the first time that Novak Djokovic is the GOAT after having won his second Roland Garros title to become the first player in the Open Era to complete the Double Career Grand Slam just a few months after having broken Roger Federer's record for Weeks at No. 1.

Djokovic is also very close to breaking two other important records that belong to Federer and Rafael Nadal. He needs one more grand slam title and two more wins over top-10 ranked opponents to tie the career records for both of those stats. He also has winning head-to-head records against both Federer and Nadal as well as at least two titles at every single Elite 14 event, while nobody else has at least one.

The case for Djokovic being the GOAT is stronger than it has ever been. However, we still need to zoom out and consider all of the last 20 years of tennis from Federer, Djokovic and Nadal before we crown Djokovic the GOAT.

There are non-traditional records that all three of these greats hold. Federer has the most-consecutive weeks at No. 1. Djokovic has beaten both of his rivals at all four majors, and has been ranked No. 1 by the largest margin ever. Nadal, meanwhile, has the most titles at any single grand slam with 13 at Roland Garros. These are non-traditional in the sense that they aren't simple counting statistics like total grand slams won, total big titles, total weeks at No. 1, total top-10 wins, etc.

The tricky thing about these records is that recency bias can cause us to overvalue certain achievements. Not long ago, winning Roland Garros and Wimbledon was considered a very important achievement for becoming the GOAT. However, since it hasn't been achieved in a long time, it has become considered less valuable.

It is very possible that something similar happens to Djokovic's achievement of winning every important tournament multiple times. It is such a unique achievement that is so unlikely to be repeated, which makes it an achievement that could be easily forgotten. It's an unbelievable achievement that is on our minds right now because it was just completed, but will it be at the forefront of the GOAT debate in 10 years? Probably not.

The more traditional records, not impossible to repeat achievements, will be what holds the most weight in the GOAT debate once all three of these players have played their last match. Fair or not, those are the standard metrics for determining who is the GOAT. The one possible exception is if Djokovic finishes his career with all the big records. Then, the Federer and Nadal fans will want to talk about anything but statistics.

So the question is: has Djokovic done enough to retire today and be considered the GOAT? I don't think it is case closed yet. Federer still has a lot of cumulative stats where he is far ahead of Djokovic, making his case for being the GOAT still quite strong. Federer also has several records for longest streaks that Djokovic will never be able to break.

Let's take a look at what some of these records are.

These are the cumulative records, where Federer often leads merely because he is older, and Djokovic is likely to overtake him in a matter of time.

Grand Slam Titles: Federer 20, Djokovic 19

Grand Slam Finals: Federer 31, Djokovic 29

Grand Slam Semifinals: Federer 46, Djokovic 40

Grand Slam Quarterfinals: Federer 57, Djokovic 49

Grand Slam Wins: Federer 365, Djokovic 310

Top-10 Wins: Federer 224, Djokovic 222

ATP Finals Titles: Federer 6, Djokovic 5

There is also my personal favorite stat of rankings points earned.

At Majors: Federer 70,495, Djokovic 62,485

At All Elite 14: Federer 139k, Djokovic 131k

These are the records for longest streaks that Federer has over Djokovic.

Weeks at No. 1: Federer 237, Djokovic 122

Year-end No. 1: Federer 4, Djokovic 2

Grand Slam Finals: Federer 10, Djokovic 6

Grand Slam Semifinals: Federer 23, Djokovic 14

Grand Slam Quarterfinals: Federer 36, Djokovic 28

I don't think much weight should be given to Federer's records for longest streaks. They do display his dominance and consistency, which is why they can't be completely ignored. However, they aren't as important as cumulative records, since they don't take into consideration a player's entire career.

In response to Federer's lead in these cumulative stats, Djokovic has a couple counter arguments. The first is to note that Djokovic also leads several important cumulative stats: Weeks at No. 1, Year-End No. 1, ATP Masters 1000 titles, head-to-head record, etc. The other thing is to note that Djokovic's career so far is significantly shorter. Jimmy Connors' career dragged on and he accumulated lots of decent results because he refused to retire, which is why he is still the record holder for ATP matches and titles won. However, nobody would say he was better than Pete Sampras. While Federer's longevity rightfully strengthens his case for being the GOAT, winning over and over in Halle and Basel shouldn't be part of his resume.

Still, Federer still has some important arguments in his favor. Djokovic will need to chase down a few of those records and shrink the gap in others in order to really make this case closed, because some of the metrics that Federer still leads are very important in the GOAT debate.

311 Weeks: A look back

Novak Djokovic has been the best tennis player in the world over the last 10 years, so it might seem like no surprise that Djokovic has surpassed Roger Federer's record of 311 weeks as the No. 1 player in the world. However, if we go back in time nearly a decade, I think we will get a more accurate perspective of just how improbable this record was and how truly remarkable it still is.

On July 4, 2011, Djokovic was listed as the No. 1 tennis player in the ATP weekly rankings for the first time in his career. I still believe this is his most impressive week as the No. 1 player in the world to date out of the 311 there are to choose from. Federer and Rafael Nadal had just won 25 out of the last 30 major titles. Just to get to No. 1 in the world, Djokovic had to come back from match points down to defeat Federer in the US Open semifinals, lead Serbia to the Davis Cup title, win the Australian Open defeat Nadal in the finals of Indian Wells, Miami, Madrid and Rome, while riding a 42-match winning streak. As if that wasn't enough he had to win his maiden Wimbledon crown and defeat Nadal in the championship match.

All that work landed Djokovic one week at No. 1. At the time, Pete Sampras had 286, Federer 285, Ivan Lendl 270 and Jimmy Connors 268. Djokovic was 24 at the time and ranked No. 1, while Federer was 29 years old and ranked No. 3.

At that point in Federer's career, pundits were rightly impressed that Federer was still playing well enough at 29 to be ranked No. 3 in the world, having reached the final at just one of the last four majors. After all, Federer's contemporaries: Andy Roddick, Lleyton Hewitt, Juan Carlos Ferrero, Tommy Haas, David Nalbandian, James Blake, etc. They were all ranked well outside the top-20 and were wrapping up impressive careers in professional tennis.

Only an optimistic Djokovic fan would have been bold enough to predict the Serb could still battle for No. 1 in the world five years later when he reached Federer's ripe age of 29. And even if Djokovic managed to remain the No. 1 player in the world for five-consecutive years (a record of its own), he still wouldn't have even reached Jimmy Connors on the all-time leaders list.

And don't forget about Nadal. He had just been the runner-up at seven different tournaments in 2011, which is his career-high. There were other challengers that Djokovic had to fight off to guard his No. 1 ranking. Players like Andy Murray, Robin Soderling, Juan Martin del Potro, Tomas Berdych, David Ferrer, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Stan Wawrinka were growing in belief that they too could reach the pinnacle of the ATP rankings after seeing what Djokovic had done.

To suggest that Djokovic might get anywhere near 300 weeks as the No. 1 player in the world would have been unfathomable. Djokovic's best chance to leave his mark on tennis was to finish 2011 strong and let it stand as one of the best single-season performances in tennis history. Getting his name even halfway up the list of former ATP No. 1 Players was an unachievable goal.

Yet, here we are...

Djokovic has subsequently scaled the ladder to the top of the rankings four different times and has remained there at least 35 weeks each time, and counting.

The longest run as the No. 1 player in the world was his third, lasting 122 before before injuries ended the streak. His age at the time: 29. His total stalled out at 223, which was good enough for fifth all time.

Djokovic had two wait exactly two years before he returned to the top-spot in the rankings. I said earlier that his first week was the most impressive of all 311. Well, the 224th has to be the second-most impressive in my opinion.

After rushing his return from injury, the first half of Djokovic's 2018 season imploded and his ranking dropped out of the top-20 for the first time in nearly a dozen years. Things started to turn around when he reached the final at Queen's Club. Then he reached the semifinals of Wimbledon, where he played in an instant classic against Nadal. Djokovic won 6-4, 3-6, 7-6(9), 3-6, 10-8 and went on to win the title, his fourth Wimbledon title.

A month later, Djokovic won the illusive Cincinnati title to complete his trophy case with at least one from all 14 of the elite events around the tour. At the US Open, he only dropped two set and won all of the last 16. He eventually won Shanghai and reached the finals of Paris and the ATP Finals to climb 20 spots in the rankings and return to No. 1 in the world.

Djokovic's current run atop the ATP rankings at nearly 34-years old is impressive in its own way. The Serb won the 2020 Australian Open winning the final in five sets over an opponents six years his junior to take back the No. 1 ranking. It was his 17th major title and put him within striking distance of a once unreachable record at a point in his career when past tennis greats would be starting a broadcasting career.

This run doesn't have an end in sight. Djokovic has secured the No. 1 ranking for at least another month, despite constantly changing ranking rules that have massively benefitted his chief rivals. Djokovic didn't just break Federer's record today. He is beginning the process of smashing that record. 

The Case For Pete Sampras As GOAT

 I'm as surprised as anyone for what the title of this blog post ended up being. I did not expect the results of this study to be so lop-sided. I thought this would favor Roger Federer or maybe Rafael Nadal. Instead, it's Pete Sampras who comes out looking really good.

In the Open Era of the ATP, there have been 26 different players who have ascended into the top spot of the sport's rankings. What I wanted to do was analyze the head-to-head records of every one of those 26 players against each other.

In the GOAT debate, we often talk about the head-to-head records of Federer, Nadal and Novak Djokovic. This comparison leaves Djokovic head and shoulders above his two closest rivals. However, Federer has had many rivals in his career, and his wins against those players shouldn't be discounted. That was the motivation behind doing the research, but the result was not what I expected.

Before I get into the overall numbers, I want to point out one interesting stat. In all these head-to-head comparisons, the older players in each matchup had a total of 808 wins compared to the 690 wins for the younger players. In other words, the older player has a significant advantage and should lead the head-to-head record against his younger rival. This makes it all the more impressive that Djokovic leads the head-to-head record against his elder rivals Federer and Nadal.

Here are the leaders in win percentage against players who were ranked No. 1 at some point in their career:

1. Pete Sampras - 66.9%
2. Rafael Nadal - 61.1%
3. Bjorn Borg - 60.3%
4. Boris Becker - 60.0%
5. Roger Federer - 59.4%
6. Ivan Lendl - 58.3%
7. Novak Djokovic - 56.9%
8. Andre Agassi - 53.3%
9. Lleyton Hewitt - 50.0%
9. Gustavo Kuerten - 50.0%

These are the leaders in total wins:

1. Roger Federer - 133
2. Pete Sampras - 115
3. Ivan Lendl - 102
4. Rafael Nadal - 99
5. Andre Agassi - 97
6. Novak Djokovic - 95
7. Boris Becker - 87
8. Stefan Edberg - 74
9. John McEnroe - 68
10. Lleyton Hewitt - 67

Thomas Muster goes down as the worst No. 1 in ATP history based on these numbers, which is nothing to be ashamed of. He won just 31.6 percent of his matches against No. 1s and he has another loss coming his way if Dominic Thiem ever reaches No. 1 in the world.

For Sampras, the numbers are staggering. He doesn't have such a high winning percentage because of a small sample size. He also has the second most wins of any player. Sampras collected wins against 17 of the other 25 world No. 1s. The only one he never beat that he played against was Roger Federer in a five-set match at the very end of Sampras' career.

Sampras' wins span from Jimmy Connors, who was the third player to reach the top of the rankings all the way to Andy Roddick, who was the 23rd. Sampras got double-digit wins against five different players: Boris Becker, Jim Courier, Andre Agassi, Yevgeny Kafelnikov and Patrick Rafter. The only one to return the favor was Agassi.

Of the 17 world No. 1s that Sampras played against, only three have a winning record against him: Roger Federer, Lleyton Hewitt and Marat Safin. None of them ever played him more than nine times.

When it comes to the best playing against the best, Pete Sampras simply is the best. That's why he is still the greatest tennis player of all time.

Best Year In Tennis History

At this point, the only thing I write about on this blog anymore is the GOAT debate. It is a fascinating topic right now as Djokovic, Federer and Nadal now hold almost every record in tennis, yet are all still active as of right now.

One of the most challenging parts of GOAT debates is comparing players from different eras. For example, is it more impressive to win a major title or finish the year ranked No. 1 in 2020 than in 1973? I've tried tackling this question in a few different ways. The primary way is to simply assume that it is equally difficult to win majors in any era. I've defended this approach for a long time, because in every season, there are four major titles that can be won and you have to be the best out of 128 players over a two-week span in order to win a major.

I still think this is fundamentally the correct approach, but there is some room for nuance. It is impossible for the level of competition among the top players to be exactly equal every single year. However, measuring the difference is virtually impossible.

I've tried to use a new method to measure how strong a given year's level of competition was. Almost all majors are won by players in the top-10, and making the year-end top-10 is fairly easy for any serious GOAT candidate. So for this measurement, I've limited my analysis to top-10 players.

The first step is to assign points to each player for where they finish each year of their career in the rankings since the 1973 season. They get 15 points for finishing No. 1, 14 points for finishing No. 2, etc. with the cut off at the top-10. This gives each player a sum of points that approximates somewhat accurately where each player ranks in the all-time standings. These were the final rankings using this method.

1. Roger Federer
2. Rafael Nadal
3. Jimmy Connors
4. Novak Djokovic
5. Andre Agassi
6. Ivan Lendl
7. Pete Sampras
8. Boris Becker
9. John McEnroe
10. Stefan Edberg

This is certainly not the correct top-10 in the GOAT rankings, but it is a good-enough approximation. The main reason this method works is that it does not take into consideration which era a player is from, but compares each player against their own era to determine their value.

The next step is to measure the career accomplishments as defined above of all of the players in the top-10 of every season. The season with the top-10 that had the greatest career accomplishments could be considered the best year in tennis history. A better way to measure this could easily be created, but this should create a useful starting point. Here are the final rankings I got for the best years in tennis history.

1. 2013
2. 2015
3. 2009
4. 2014
5. 2008
6. 2012
7. 2010
8. 1992
9. 1985
10. 1987

It is no surprise that 2013 topped the list. Although the order of the top-10 that year is a little surprising, the list of players that compose the top-10 is very strong: Nadal, Djokovic, Ferrer, Murray, Del Potro, Federer, Berdych, Wawrinka, Gasquet and Tsonga.

The earliest season to make the list is 1985, which also had a very strong top-7 that was made up of: Lendl, McEnroe, Wilander, Connors, Edberg, Becker and Noah. In 1987, those same seven players were all in the top-10 along with Pat Cash.

The three years that Federer most dominated tennis were 2005-07. The 2007 season ranked as the 12th best in tennis history, while 2005 ranked 14th and 2006 was all the way down in 35th place.

Djokovic's peak years were from 2008 to 2015. All of those seasons rank among the 11 best seasons in tennis history.

The seasons from 2016 to 2020 will likely move up on the list since the players ranked in the top-10 in those seasons have not finished racking up career accomplishments. A season that has Tsitsipas, Zverev and Medvedev in the top-10 will likely look a lot stronger when we look back 10 years from now.

I've spilled quite a bit of ink in the past comparing what Djokovic did in 2015 to what Federer did in 2006. I think without even analyzing the strength of competition, it is already clear that Djokovic had the better season. However, when you consider the strength of competition that the two players faced, the gap grows much bigger. The 2015 season ranks second in the open era compared to the 2006 season which ranks 35th out of 48 seasons.

The biggest take away from this study is to reconfirm what has been already been proven several other ways: the competition that Federer faced in his peak was not nearly as strong as the competition Djokovic faced during the peak of his career. While this doesn't take away from the records that Federer has accumulated during his career, it does show that Djokovic's grand slam titles and weeks at No. 1 during his career are more impressive than the ones that Federer has accumulated.

Djokovic's Hurdles To 311 Weeks At No. 1

Now that Novak Djokovic is back at No. 1 in the ATP rankings, the climb to 311 weeks as the world No. 1 is back on. Roger Federer set the record at 310 weeks, meaning Djokovic needs to remain at the top of the rankings for another 33 weeks to tie Federer's record. This would arguably be the greatest record on a long list of accomplishments for the 17-time major champion.

Djokovic needs to remain at the top of the rankings until September 28 in order to tie Federer's record and there are a handful of different challenges that Djokovic will face as he tries to remain on top while defending 5,175 ranking points during that span.

The most immediate threat to Djokovic's No. 1 ranking is Rafael Nadal, who is currently just 325 points behind in the rankings. The two players that have played each other in professional tennis matches more than any duo in the open era have almost exactly the same amount of points to defend between now and the conclusion of the Masters Series 1000 in Madrid. That means Nadal has a three-month span to try to recover the No. 1 ranking.

Here is how many ranking points have been earned by the top players in the nine months since last year's tournament in Madrid:

1. Novak Djokovic - 8,405
2. Rafael Nadal - 8,090
3. Dominic Thiem - 5,085
3. Daniil Medvedev - 5,085
5. Roger Federer - 4,850

If Nadal does not retake the No.1  ranking during his 3-month window, Daniil Medvedev will actually become Djokovic's biggest threat to the top ranking. Medvedev became much less of a threat after his early exit at the Australian Open, but his run in the United States last summer gives him a large sum of ranking points that he won't have to defend for a while.

Here are the ranking points earned by each player since last year's tournament in Hamburg:

1. Novak Djokovic - 5,085
2. Daniil Medvedev - 4,795
3. Rafael Nadal - 4,370
4. Dominic Thiem - 3,775
5. Stefanos Tsitsipas - 2,695
6. Alexander Zverev - 2,610
7. Roger Federer - 2,250
8. Andrey Rublev - 1,640

If Djokovic can remain the world No. 1 through the conclusion of Hamburg, his next biggest threat will become Dominic Thiem. Of course, a lot can change over the next five months. However, as of now, Thiem is the player who is the closest to Djokovic in terms of ranking points won that won't have to be defended until October.

These are the ranking points earned since October 2019:

1. Novak Djokovic - 4,545
2. Dominic Thiem - 3,335
3. Stefanos Tsitsipas - 2,485
4. Alexander Zverev - 1,990
5. Roger Federer - 1,620
6. Daniil Medvedev - 1,445
7. Rafael Nadal - 1,370
8. Andrey Rublev - 1,165

Nadal will probably remain Djokovic's biggest threat for the No. 1 ranking throughout the 2020 season, because the points he will accumulate on clay could put him back in striking distance in September. However, Nadal's path back to No. 1 is hurt by how few points he has earned since the 2019 US Open. He has to strike while the opportunity is there. Meanwhile, a strong clay season for Medvedev or Thiem could spell trouble for Djokovic as the next generation of players may get their long-awaited chance to finally dethrone the greatest trio of tennis players that the sport has ever seen.