Federer and Murray land in same quarter in Melbourne

MELBOURNE, Australia -- With Roger Federer seeded No. 17, there were a lot of possibilities for where he would land in the draw, but he found a relatively safe spot in the draw. The 17-time grand slam champion will face two qualifiers and then have to go through five consecutive top-10 seeds.

Here are the paths of the big four

Andy Murray
Illya Marchenko
Rendy Lu
Sam Querrey
John Isner
Kei Nishikori
Stan Wawrinka
Novak Djokovic

Novak Djokovic
Fernando Verdasco
Denis Istomin
Pablo Carreno Busta
Grigor Dimitrov
Dominic Thiem
Milos Raonic
Andy Murray

Rafael Nadal
Florian Mayer
Marcos Baghdatis
Alexander Zverev
Gael Monfils
Milos Raonic
Novak Djokovic
Andy Murray

Roger Federer
Qualifier
Qualifier
Tomas Berdych
Kei Nishikori
Andy Murray
Stan Wawrinka
Novak Djokovic

Djokovic's Nightmare: The biggest first round match of the tournament will certainly be Novak Djokovic against Fernando Verdasco. The two met earlier this year and Djokovic needed to save five match points to defeat the Spaniard. Verdasco upset Rafael Nadal in this tournament last year and is more than capable of pulling off another big upset this year. However, if Djokovic can get through that match, it should be business as usual until the semifinals.

Quarter of Opportunity: The second quarter of the draw lacks any of the members of the Big Four, but it isn't lacking for talent. Marin Cilic will face Jerzy Janowicz in the first round, which will be a great match for one of the outside courts. Both Nick Kyrgios and Stan Wawrinka have decent draws, so it's hard to see how they won't play each other. That is the most bitter and personal rivalry on tour.

Raonic's Quarter: Milos Raonic's quarter of the draw will also be interesting. Jiri Vesely and Gael Monfils will meet in the first round and the winner will face either Alexandr Dolgopolov or Borna Cilic. Raonic has his own test in the first round in Dustin Brown. In the third round, Nadal playing Alexander Zverev would be a fantastic match. Zverev nearly pulled off the upset in Indian Wells last year.

Contenders' Quarter: Andy Murray's section of the draw doesn't have the blockbuster first round matches, but it arguably has the most title contenders with Murray, Federer and Kei Nishikori. It would not be a surprise if the eventual tournament winner comes out of this quarter of the draw.

My projected quarterfinals
Murray vs. Nishikori
Kyrgios vs. Cilic
Zverev vs. Raonic
Thiem vs. Djokovic

My projected round of 16
Murray vs. Inser
Federer vs. Nishikori
Wawrinka vs. Kyrgios
Sock vs. Cilic
Zverev vs. Monfils
Bautista Agut vs. Raonic
Thiem vs. Goffin
Dimitrov vs. Djokovic

Watch out for the Croats: The Croats could make some noise on the bottom half of the draw. We never know what to expect from Monfils and that could open the door for Coric. A Coric-Zverev fourth round match would be an amazing match-up to kick off the second week of the major. Ivo Karlovic could also do some damage. He has a couple of easy first rounds and then would play Goffin and Thiem, who both have very poor records against big servers.

2017 Expert Panel ATP Predictions

For the third year in a row, the ATP World Tour Expert Panel Predictions are back on the Second Serb with two new panelists and four returners, including 2016 runner-up Joey Hanf.

Here are the full picks by the six panelists for the 2017 season on the ATP: ATP Expert Panel Predictions

2017 ATP Year-End Top 100 Predictions

Kevin Craig and I are going head-to-head for the second year in a row, predicting the year-end top 100 in the ATP. Kevin won handily last year. Here are our predictions:

Rank	Kevin Craig	Jared Pine
1	Novak Djokovic	Novak Djokovic
2	Milos Raonic	Andy Murray
3	Roger Federer	Milos Raonic
4	Andy Murray	Kei Nishikori
5	Stan Wawrinka	Rafael Nadal
6	Nick Kyrgios	Dominic Thiem
7	Lucas Pouille	Marin Cilic
8	Dominic Thiem	Nick Kyrgios
9	Kei Nishikori	Grigor Dimitrov
10	Juan Martin del Potro	Jack Sock
11	Marin Cilic	Stan Wawrinka
12	Rafael Nadal	David Goffin
13	Alex Zverev	Tomas Berdcyh
14	Jack Sock	Roger Federer
15	Jo-Wilfried Tsonga	Lucas Pouille
16	Grigor Dimitrov	Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
17	David Goffin	Alexander Zverev
18	Gael Monfils	Bernard Tomic
19	Tomas Berdych	Steve Johnson
20	Bernard Tomic	Roberto Bautista Agut
21	Steve Johnson	John Isner
22	Roberto Bautista Agut	Gael Monfils
23	Sam Querrey	Pablo Carreno Busta
24	Pablo Carreno Busta	Ricahrd Gasquet
25	David Ferrer	Borna Coric
26	Borna Coric	Pablo Cuevas
27	John Isner	Albert Ramos
28	Richard Gasquet	Viktor Troicki
29	Kyle Edmund	Kyle Edmund
30	Karen Khachanov	Andrey Kuznetsov
31	Jiri Vesely	Karen Khachanov
32	Federico Delbonis	Jiri Vesely
33	Martin Klizan	Gilles Simon
34	Mischa Zverev	Martin Klizan
35	Pablo Cuevas	Juan Martin del Potro
36	Fernando Verdasco	Taylor Fritz
37	Joao Sousa	Diego Schwartzman
38	Fabio Fognini	Sam Querrey
39	Gilles Simon	Kevin Anderson
40	Marcos Baghdatis	David Ferrer
41	Gilles Muller	Gerald Melzer
42	Feliciano Lopez	Jeremy Chardy
43	Kevin Anderson	Benoit Paire
44	Nicolas Almagro	Daniel Evans
45	Ivo Karlovic	Joao Sousa
46	Alex Dolgopolov	Hyeon Chung
47	Taylor Fritz	Alexandr Dolgopolov
48	Hyeon Chung	Adam Pavlasek
49	Thomaz Bellucci	Renzo Olivo
50	Albert Ramos-Vinolas	Jordan Thompson
51	Viktor Troicki	Philipp Kohlschreiber
52	Ryan Harrison	Pierre-Hugues Herbert
53	Facundo Bagnis	Gilles Muller
54	Marcel Granollers	Marcel Granollers
55	Guido Pella	Nicolas Almagro
56	Jeremy Chardy	Facundo Bagnis
57	Donald Young	Guido Pella
58	Juan Monaco	Adrian Mannarino
59	Nicolas Mahut	Jan-Lennard Struff
60	Daniil Medvedev	Damir Dzumhur
61	Jordan Thompson	Dusan Lajovic
62	Adam Pavlasek	Ricardas Berankis
63	Dustin Brown	Gastao Elias
64	Andrey Kuznetsov	Ryan Harrison
65	Frances Tiafoe	Mischa Zverev
66	Tommy Robredo	John Millman
67	Vasek Pospisil	Florian Mayer
68	Pierre-Hugues Herbert	Nikoloz Basilashvili
69	Diego Schwartzman	Daniil Medvedev
70	Phillip Kohlschreiber	Illya Marchenko
71	John Millman	Ivo Karlovic
72	Robin Haase	Fernando Verdasco
73	Stefan Kozlov	Fabio Fognini
74	Denis Istomin	Thomaz Bellucci
75	Reilly Opelka	Yoshihito Nishioka
76	Adrian Mannarino	Vasek Pospisil
77	Illya Marchenko	Mikhail Kukushkin
78	Guillermo Garcia-Lopez	Jared Donaldson
79	Paolo Lorenzi	Malek Jaziri
80	Julien Benneteau	Santiago Giraldo
81	Benoit Paire	Frances Tiafoe
82	Jared Donaldson	Feliciano Lopez
83	Andreas Seppi	Marcos Baghdatis
84	Yoshihito Nishioka	Andrey Rublev
85	Damir Dzumhur	Elias Ymer
86	Jan-Lennard Struff	Duckhee Lee
87	Mikhail Youzhny	Bjorn Fratangelo
88	Daniel Evans	Dustin Brown
89	Malek Jaziri	Taro Daniel
90	Radek Stepanek	Juan Monaco
91	Radu Albot	Ernesto Escobedo
92	Denis Kudla	Quentin Halys
93	Rajeev Ram	Laslo Djere
94	Peter Polansky	Noah Rubin
95	Lukas Rosol	Stefan Kozlov
96	Stefanos Tsitsipas	Michael Mmoh
97	Ernesto Escobedo	James Duckworth
98	Jozef Kovalik	Denis Shapovalov
99	Henri Laaksonen	Andreas Seppi
100	Jerzy Janowicz	Casper Ruud

If there was any doubt that it's hard to guess the top 100 in the world 52 weeks in advance, consider the fact that Kevin and I only have three picks in common: Novak Djokovic at No. 1, Kyle Edmund at No. 29, and Marcel Granollers at No. 54. Considering how far off some of the other predictions are, the fact that Edmund and Granollers are the same on both of our lists are more of a sign of coincidence than our combined tennis knowledge.

Kevin's bold predictions: Roger Federer at No. 3, Lucas Pouille at No. 7, and Reilly Opelka at No. 75.

Jared's bold predictions: Rafael Nadal at No. 5, Grigor Dimitrov at No. 9, and Gerald Melzer at No. 41.

Kevin's pessimistic picks: Kei Nishikori at No. 9, Rafael Nadal at No. 12, and Tomas Berdych at No. 19.

Jared's pessimistic picks: Roger Federer at No. 14, Gael Monfils at No. 22, and Juan Martin del Potro at No. 35.

Missing from Kevin's top 100: Gerald Melzer, Florian Mayer, and Nikoloz Basilashvili

Missing from Jared's top 100: Nicolas Mahut, Robin Haase, and Tommy Robredo

United States Top 10 Predictions

Rank	Kevin Craig	Jared Pine
1	Jack Sock (14)	Jack Sock (10)
2	Steve Johnson (21)	Steve Johnson (19)
3	Sam Querrey (23)	John Isner (21)
4	John Isner (27)	Taylor Fritz (36)
5	Taylor Fritz (47)	Sam Querrey (38)
6	Ryan Harrison (52)	Ryan Harrison (64)
7	Donald Young (57)	Jared Donaldson (78)
8	Frances Tiafoe (65)	Frances Tiafoe (81)
9	Stefan Kozlov (73)	Bjorn Fratangelo (87)
10	Reilly Opelka (75)	Ernesto Escobedo (91)

Opposite of last year, I'm the optimistic one for Sock, Johnson, and Isner, while Kevin has high hopes for Querrey, Harrison, and Young. Both of us are expecting good years from the players born in the final years of the 20th century.

Across the board, expectations for American tennis 2017 are higher than they have been in nearly a decade and its not without good reason. Kevin and I have different predictions about which Americans will have success in the next 52 weeks, but there is no doubt that this will be a good year for more than just a couple of players representing the stars and stripes.

2016 Year-End Top 100 Predictions Revisited

Kevin Craig and I went head-to-head last year last year in predicting the year-end top 100 in the ATP and the top 10 among players from the United States. It was my fifth year predicting the top 100 and first time going head-to-head against Kevin.

Kevin thoroughly beat me overall. His predictions were off by an average of 33.5 spots with a median of 21 with three perfect predictions. I was off by an average of 34 and median of 24 without getting a single prediction correct.

I was doing well through the top nine, but once I picked Bernard Tomic to finish No. 10, there was no recovering. I also missed badly with Kevin Anderson and Aljaz Bedene. My good predictions were putting Martin Klizan at No. 32, Viktor Troicki at No. 25 and Federico Delbonis at No. 43.

The best pick by either of us was Kevin putting Diego Schwartzman perfectly at No. 52. He also correctly predicted Stan Wawrinka at No. 4 and Tomas Berdych at No. 10. Unfortunately, Kevin was a bit optimistic for Vasek Pospisil and Donald Young.

I got the better of Kevin in our predictions for United States tennis. My picks were off by an average of 25.3 spots, while Kevin was off by 35.9 spots. My lack of optimism for Isner, Sock and Young served me well. I also picked Ryan Harrison to finish No. 85 overall. I also had Querrey and Fratangelo just a little bit higher.

Kevin did well to predict Donaldson at No. 99 and Talor Fritz at No. 86. Those two players will be the future of American tennis and the fact that Kevin so accurately predicted them is good news, because it means they are living up to the hype. That wasn't the case for the so-called "lost boys."

In my five years of predicting the year-end top 100, this was my worst year. The first three years, my average margin of error was slightly above 31 all three years. In 2015, I had my best score ever of 25, so the score of 34 is a good indicator of the level of unpredictability in 2016. However, if you ask most tennis fans, 2016 was the worst year on the ATP from a fans' perspective in recent memory, proving that unpredictability is bad for the game.

Measuring Year-End Finals Dominance

Since the 1970 Masters Grand Prix, the ATP World Tour has wrapped up each season with a small tournament featuring the top players on the tour every year. The format of the tournament has changed slightly over the years, but the current format of the World Tour Finals is the most commonly used format.

As I've done with Grand Slams and with Masters Series 1000 events, I wanted to look at who are the best players in the tournament's history, comparing players from every generation by calculating the ranking points earned by players at the event based on the current ranking points system.

That means every round robin win is worth 200 points, every semifinal win is worth 400, and winning the championship match is worth 500. For the years with a normal bracket tournament, a quarterfinal finish is worth 200, semifinals worth 400, final worth 800 and a title is worth 1300. In 1970 and 1971, only two players advanced from the round robin stage, so there was no opportunity to earn the 400 points in the semifinal matches.

Before getting into the lists, here are a few records at the tournament.

Most consecutive appearances at the tournament: Federer (14)
-Longest active streak: Djokovic (10)
Most consecutive appearances in the final: Lendl (9)
-Longest active streak: Djokovic (5)
Most consecutive titles won: Djokovic (4)
-Longest active streak: Murray (1)
Most times reaching the tournament: Federer (14)
Most times reaching the final: Federer (10)
Most titles won: Federer (6)
Most years between first and last appearance: Connors (15)
Most years between first and last time reaching the final: Federer (12)
Most years between first and last title: Sampras (8)

Total Ranking Points Earned
1. Roger Federer 14,200
2. Ivan Lendl 11,900
3. Pete Sampras 9700
3. Boris Becker 9700
5. Novak Djokovic 9100
6. Ilie Nastase 6600
7. John McEnroe 6100
8. Andre Agassi 5500
9. Jimmy Connors 4700
10. Bjorn Borg 4600
11. Stefan Edberg 4300
12. Guillermo Vilas 3900
13. Lleyton Hewitt 3800
14. Andy Murray 3700
15. Rafael Nadal 3600
16. Stan Smith 3100
16. Nikolay Davydenko 3100
18. Mats Wilander 2400
18. Yevgeny Kafelnikov 2400
20. Carlos Moya 2200
21. Manuel Orantes 2100
22. Arthur Ashe 2000
23. Jim Courier 1800
23. David Ferrer 1800
25. David Nalbandian 1700
26. Vitas Gerulaitis 1600
26. Brian Gottfried 1600
26. Juan Martin del Potro 1600
26. Goran Ivanisevic 1600
26. Andy Roddick 1600
26. Michael Chang 1600
32. Michael Stich 1500
32. Alex Corretja 1500
32. Gustavo Kuerten 1500
35. Stan Wawrinka 1400

Ranking Points Earned per Tournament
1. Ilie Nastase 1320
2. Roger Federer 1014
3. Tom Okker 1000
4. Ivan Lendl 992
5. Lleyton Hewitt 950
6. Bjorn Borg 920
7. Novak Djokovic 910
8. Pete Sampras 882
8. Boris Becker 882
10. Vitas Gerulaitis 800

The obvious issue with going based ranking points per tournament is the advantage it gives to players who played in less tournaments such as Tom Okker who reached the final in the only year he played. The issue with going off of total points is that is that it gives an advantage to players for having longer careers. The best way to analyze dominance at the tournament is to find a balance of the two.

The best way to do that is to take the total ranking points earned but take away 130 points (10% of the amount of points for winning the title with one round robin loss) for each year playing in the tournament.

Total Ranking Points Adjusted
1. Roger Federer 12,380
2. Ivan Lendl 10,340
3. Pete Sampras 8270
3. Boris Becker 8270
5. Novak Djokovic 7800
6. Ilie Nastase 5950
7. John McEnroe 5060
8. Andre Agassi 4200
9. Bjorn Borg 3950
10. Lleyton Hewitt 3280
11. Jimmy Connors 3270
12. Stefan Edberg 3260
13. Guillermo Vilas 2860
14. Rafael Nadal 2690
15. Andy Murray 2660
16. Stan Smith 2580
17. Nikolay Davydenko 2450
18. Mats Wilander 1620
19. Arthur Ashe 1610
20. Carlos Moya 1550

This tournament serves as a unique test for greatness. In every other tournament, the best players don't play each other until the later rounds. That means that if a player doesn't feel 100 percent physically or doesn't like the conditions, they likely will never play against their rivals. However, in the year-end championships, playing against the top players is inevitable. This tournament is the only true test of who is the best of the best.

Lendl is someone that is underrated on most GOAT lists, but on these lists he does very well. On the flip side, Nadal and Connors are both surprisingly low on these lists. Becker and Sampras both had the exact same results at the tournament