Friday, January 1, 2016

ATP 2016 Year-end Top 100 Predictions

For the fifth year in a row, I have predicted what I think the year-end top 100 will be, but for the first time I am being joined in this journey. Kevin Craig (@KCraig_Tennis) from has also put together his own predictions for the top 100. Here are our predictions with analysis at the bottom.

Here are the lists:

Kevin Craig

Jared Pine
1. Novak Djokovic Novak Djokovic
2. Andy Murray Andy Murray
3. Rafael Nadal Rafael Nadal
4. Stan Wawrinka Kei Nishikori
5. Milos Raonic Stan Wawrinka
6. Roger Federer Tomas Berdych
7. Kei Nishikori Roger Federer
8. John Isner Milos Raonic
9. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga Marin Cilic
10. Tomas Berdych Bernard Tomic
11. David Ferrer Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
12. Grigor Dimitrov Grigor Dimitrov
13. Kevin Anderson Dominic Thiem
14. Jack Sock Kevin Anderson
15. Domonic Thiem John Isner
16. Bernard Tomic David Goffin
17. Marin Cilic David Ferrer
18. Nick Kyrgios Jack Sock
19. David Goffin Gael Monfils
20. Roberto Bautista Agut Gilles Simon
21. Steve Johnson Steve Johnson
22. Richard Gasquet Richard Gasquet
23. Vasek Pospisil Nick Kyrgios
24. Fabio Fognini Benoit Paire
25. Gael Monfils Viktor Troicki
26. Benoit Paire Jeremy Chardy
27. Borna Coric Alexandr Dolgopolov
28. Donald Young Jiri Vesely
29. Joao Sousa Roberto Bautista Agut
30. Marcos Baghdatis Aljaz Bedene
31. Feliciano Lopez Borna Coric
32. Jiri Vesely Martin Klizan
33. Gilles Simon Joao Sousa
34. Jeremy Chardy Fabio Fognini
35. Viktor Troicki Vasek Pospisil
36. Ivo Karlovic Leonardo Mayer
37. Fernando Verdasco Thomaz Bellucci
38. Juan Monaco Pablo Cuevas
39. Sam Groth  Adrian Mannarino
40. Aljaz Bedene Jerzy Janowicz
41. Pablo Carreno Busta Hyeon Chung
42. Alex Dolgopolov  Donald Young
43. Thomaz Bellucci Federico Delbonis
44. Martin Klizan Feliciano Lopez
45. Ernests Gulbis Sam Querrey
46. Leonardo Mayer Pablo Carreno Busta
47. Denis Kudla Denis Kudla
48. Andreas Seppi Ivo Karlovic
49. Victor Estrella Burgos Guillermo Garcia-Lopez
50. Sam Querrey Alexander Zverev
51. Alex Zverev  Andreas Seppi
52. Diego Schwartzman Lucas Pouille
53. Phillip Kohlschreiber Philipp Kohlschreiber
54. Pablo Andujar Ernests Gulbis
55. Lucas Pouille Nicolas Almagro
56. Nicolas Almagro Thanasi Kokkinakis
57. Thanasi Kokkinakis Sam Groth
58. Hyeon Chung Denis Istomin
59. Lukas Rosol Fernando Verdasco
60. Gilles Muller Gilles Muller
61. Santiago Giraldo Mikhail Kukushkin
62. Jerzy Janowicz Juan Monaco
63. Guillermo Garcia-Lopez Yuki Bhambri
64. Guido Pella Diego Schwartzman
65. Ryan Harrison Jared Donaldson
66. Teymuraz Gabashvili  Yoshihito Nishioka
67. Andreas Haider-Maurer Dusan Lajovic
68. Robin Haase Ricardas Berankis
69. Simone Bolelli Elias Ymer
70. Rajeev Ram Inigo Cervantes
71. Nicolas Mahut Albert Ramos
72. Ricardas Berankis Santiago Giraldo
73. Tommy Robredo  Damir Dzumhur
74. Denis Istomin Kyle Edmund
75. Mischa Zverev Robin Haase
76. Adrian Mannarino  Andrey Kuznetsov
77. Mikhail Kukushkin Andreas Haider-Mauerer
78. Ivan Dodig Pablo Andujar
79. Pablo Cuevas Filip Krajinovic
80. Andrey Kuznetsov Marcos Baghdatis
81. Kyle Edmund  Teymuraz Gabashvili
82. Ruben Bemelmans Lukas Rosol
83. Federico Delbonis  Simone Bolelli
84. Yuki Bhambri  Kimmer Coppejans
85. Inigo Cervantes Ryan Harrison
86. Taylor Fritz  Tommy Robredo
87. Sergiy Stakhovsky  Taro Daniel
88. Elias Ymer Marco Cecchinato
89. James Duckworth Austin Krajicek
90. Austin Krajicek Illya Marchenko
91. Yoshihito Nishioka  Bjorn Fratangelo
92. Mikhail Youzhny Andrey Rublev
93. John Millman Matthew Ebden
94. Andrey Rublev Jan-Lennard Struff
95. Matt Ebden Lukas Lacko
96. Paolo Lorenzi Evgeny Donskoy
97. Albert Ramos-Vinolas Taylor Fritz
98. Daniel Munoz de la Nava James Duckworth
99. Jared Donaldson Nikoloz Basilashvili
100. Dusan Lajovic Laslo Djere

Kevin and I have no disagreements in the top three. Djokovic, Murray, and Nadal have been three over the best players in tennis over the last decade and there is nothing to suggest that will change this year. The first major difference comes with Isner, who I have at No. 15 while Kevin places the American giant at No. 8. I also have significantly less faith in Ferrer for this season, but we both agreed that Dimitrov will make a comeback of sorts in 2016 and finish at No. 12.

I also have Tomic finishing in the top 10, but Kevin has the Australian down at No. 16 just ahead of Cilic, who is No. 9 on my list.  At the bottom, both of us have a Serb, but I went with the younger Laslo Djere.

Here is a look at our Americans in the top 100:
Kevin Craig Jared Pine
8. John Isner 15. John Isner
14. Jack Sock 18. Jack Sock
21. Steve Johnson 21. Steve Johnson
28. Donald Young 42. Donald Young
47. Denis Kudla 45. Sam Querrey
50. Sam Querrey 47. Denis Kudla
65. Ryan Harrison 65. Jared Donaldson
70. Rajeev Ram 85. Ryan Harrison
86. Taylor Fritz  89. Austin Krajicek
90. Austin Krajicek 91. Bjorn Fratangelo
99. Jared Donaldson 97. Taylor Fritz

Neither of us have Tim Smyczek, Frances Tiafoe, or Dennis Novikov in our top 100. That could definitely come back to bite us.

Apart from the players already mentioned Kevin put a lot of faith in: Nick Kyrgios, Roberto Bautista Agut, Vasek Pospisil, Fabio Fognini, Marcos Baghdatis, Juan Monaco and Nicolas Mahut.

Meanwhile, I put a lot of confidence in: Gael Monfils, Gilles Simon, Alexandr Dolgopolov, Martin Klizan, Yoshihito Nishioka, Filip Krajinovic and Damir Dzumhur

We'll revisit this in 11 months. It will be interesting to see whose predictions are closer to reality in the end.

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