Sunday, September 21, 2014

What if 2014 went the way I thought it would?

Starting in 2012, I have filled out a draw for every singles men's singles event on the ATP World Tour and have tracked and recorded all of my picks. 2014 has been a rough year for me, getting 59.2% of my picks right so far compared to 62.8 at this point of the season in 2012. (Just for an idea of how good or bad that is, about 33% would be your score if you let a coin toss determine who you picked).

I've done alright at picked tournaments' winners, getting 17 correct from the 51 tournaments that have taken place, whereas the average person would get 1.2 correct out of the 51 by using a coin toss method. However, the season would look very different than it does if all of my picks had been accurate. Here is which titles each player would have.

Djokovic: 8 - Australian Open, Dubai, Indian Wells, Miami, Monte Carlo, Roland Garros, Toronto, US Open
Isner: 5 - Delray Beach, Houston, Newport, Atlanta, Winstom-Salem
Ferrer: 5 - Hamburg, Bastad, Buenos Aires, Auckland, Doha
Murray: 4 - Rotterdam, Acapulco, Queen's Club, Shenzhen*
Monfils: 4 - Montpellier, Casablanca, Bucharest, Metz
Federer: 4 - Brisbane, Halle, Wimbledon, Cincinnati
Nadal: 4 - Rio de Janiero, Barcelona, Madrid, Rome
Fognini: 3 - Vina del Mar, Munich, Stuttgart
Cilic: 2 - Umag, Zagreb
Gulbis: 2 - Nice, Marseille
Benneteau: 1 - Kuala Lumpur*
Kohlschreiber: 1 - Kitzbuhel
Raonic: 1 - Washington D.C.
Garcia-Lopez: 1 - Gstaad
Gasquet: 1 - Bogota
Verdasco: 1 - s-Hertogenbosch
Lopez: 1 - Eastbourne
Granollers: 1 - Dusseldorf
Berdych: 1 - Oeiras
Almagro: 1 - Sao Paulo
Querrey: 1 - Memphis
Del Potro: 1 - Sydney
Wawrinka: 1 - Chennai

*Tournament is this week
Correct Picks

I absolutely nailed it with Gulbis, but was horrible at predicting for Djokovic and Murray. I also haven't picked Dimitrov to win a title yet this year and he has already won three.

If my predictions came true and rankings were based only on titles, (thankfully neither of those are true), then these would be the Race Rankings.
1. Djokovic 10,500
2. Federer 3,500
3. Nadal 3,000
4. Ferrer 1,500
4. Murray 1,500
6. Isner 1,250
7. Monfils 1,000
8. Fognini 750
9. Cilic 500
9. Gulbis 500
9. Raonic 500
12. Benneteau 250
12. Kohlschreiber 250
12. Garcia-Lopez 250
12. Gasquet 250
12. Verdasco 250
12. Lopez 250
12. Granollers 250
12. Berdych 250
12. Almagro 250
12. Querrey 250
12. Del Potro 250
12. Wawrinka 250

Murray, Isner, Monfils, and Fognini are all too high on this list, while Wawrinka is tied for last, when he is actually ranked No. 4 in the world. If I had all the time in the world, I would want to see exactly where everyone would rank in the Race Rankings if all my predictions had come true. I'm sure Wawrinka would be much higher since I have picked him to reach at last the quarterfinals at just about every event he plays.

Moral of the story though is to stop picking Isner, Fognini, and Monfils so often. I probably won't stop picking Murray, because I really think he will get things figured out quickly and could even qualify for London this year still.

1 comment: