At its peak in 2011, the Big Four of Novak Djokovic, Andy Murray, Rafael Nadal, and Roger Federer owned the ATP World Tour. In 2011, the four players combined to win all four slams, all nine 1000 events, the year-end Finals, along with eight other titles, and Nadal was part of the Davis Cup Champion team.
The four players didn't just win the events - they dominated them. Both finalists at all four slams were members of the Big Four. In fact, only three players ranked below four even reached the semifinals, and only four reached a final at a 1000 event. However, since Nadal lost to Lukas Rosol in the second round of Wimbledon in 2012, the members of the Big Four have not all been at their best at the same time.
After that loss, Nadal was out for seven months and didn't make his return until after the Australian Open. As soon as Nadal returned, Federer instantly began to struggle, starting with a loss in Rotterdam to Julien Benneteau. Federer's struggles continued all the way through to the US Open where he lost to Tommy Robredo.
After the US Open, Murray announced his season would end with back surgery, and Federer almost instantly began to improve. He reached the final in Basel, and semifinals of Bercy and the year-end Finals, beating Richard Gasquet and Juan Martin del Potro twice in the process.
Now, at the Australian Open, Murray is back from his injury, Nadal's knee issues seem to be a thing of the past, Djokovic is extrememly motivated, and Federer appears to be back to a high quality of tennis. So is the Big Four back?
From what we have seen at the Australian Open through one week, the answer would be a resounding yes! Not a single one of the four has so much as dropped set on their straight-forward paths to the second week. With Del Potro falling out of the tournament in the first round, it would be surprising if anyone outside the Big Four reaches a final, let alone win one.
However, there is still one major hurdle before I am ready to say that the Big Four is truly back, and that is Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. During 2011, it wouldn't be surprising to see all four reach the semifinals. However, that's impossible in Melbourne this year since Murray and Federer are both in the same quarter. So the best the Big Four can do is make sure that none of them lose to anybody outside the Big Four. Although Djokovic will face Stanislas Wawrinka and potentially Tomas Berdych or David Ferrer, Tsonga appears to be the biggest threat in this tournament to disrupt the Big Four's dominance.
So what is unofficially on the line tonight when Federer goes toe-to-toe with Tsonga is Federer's spot in the Big Four. Can the Big Four all dominate the sport at once the way they did in 2011? Or are Tsonga, Berdych, Del Potro, Wawrinka, and Ferrer too good to be second tier players?
A look at all things tennis. Not breaking news, but interesting information served with a little more spin. Follow me on twitter @JaredPine or on YouTube (https://www.youtube.com/user/pinejared).
Showing posts with label Berdych. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Berdych. Show all posts
Sunday, January 19, 2014
Sunday, January 12, 2014
The Forgotten Quarter
The Australian Open is mere hours away at this point, and as play begins, all eyes will be on the favorites to win the tournament to see how their form is. A lot has been made of the stacked top half of the draw in Melbourne and the possibility of a rematch between Stan Wawrinka and Novak Djokovic. However, there is one quarter of the draw that has been overlooked significantly. David Ferrer's quarter is wide open and loaded with the possibility of a break-through performance.
It wasn't long ago that the Australian Open was the site of some of the biggest upsets in tennis. Whether it was Djokovic ending Roger Federer's streak of consecutive slam finals, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga taking out Nadal, or Marcos Baghdatis reaching the final, the Happy Slam was full of surprises.
This hasn't been the case in the last two years with the top four seeds all reaching the semifinals in both 2011 and 2012. However, Ferrer's quarter could potentially be the location of a huge surprise. With a spot in the semifinals up for grabs, it seems as though nobody in the quarter is prepared to take it. The eight seeds in this quarter of the draw have a combined record of 6-9, and six of the seeds have not even won a match yet this year.
The top seed in the quarter, Ferrer, went on a four-match losing streak to end 2013 after he upset Nadal. That proved to be the trend more than a fluke as he went on to be upset by two players ranked outside of the top 50 in his first two tournaments of the season. Last year's Wimbledon semifinalist, Jerzy Janowicz, won just a total of four games in his only match to get prepared for the first slam of the year.
Tomas Berdych isn't in any better form. Despite winning doubles in Doha, he was upset in straight sets in the first round by Ivo Karlovic, who is a potential third round opponent. The Czech has been known to suffer early upsets at the slams anyways. For seven years in a row, he has lost in the first round of at least one slam each year.
Also, Tommy Haas, Mikhail Youzhny, Ivan Dodig, and Kevin Anderson have all lost their only preparation match for Melbourne. So if all of this players, have such poor form coming into the slam, who is going to reach the semifinals? Someone in this section has to! These are the three unseeded players that I think have the best chance of making a run at the Australian Open.
1. Steve Johnson (USA)
This is a perfect storm for Stevie to have a breakthrough event at a slam. Not only is he playing in a weak section of the draw, but he is coming into this tournament in good form and will play under favorable conditions. Last week, he came one match away from qualifying for Auckland, where he was beat by college rival Bradley Klahn. However, he got into the draw as a lucky loser and made the most of it. He beat Marcos Baghdatis, who is always dangerous when he is playing down under. Then he knocked out one of the seeded players in this quarter, Kevin Anderson, in straight sets.
Johnson is no stranger to succeeding in extrememly hot temperatures. As a senior at USC, he had one of the best seasons in tennis history, which led to a National Championship. He knows what it takes to win, and has that winning mentality. When he gets on a roll he is tough to stop, which makes him dangerous to go deep in Melbourne.
The word on the streets is that the courts at the Australian Open are faster and the balls are lighter, which is more good news for the American. He loves to crank his serve and back it up with his best weapon, which is the forehand. The court speed and light balls play right into his strategy, which will make it very difficult to break his serve. This could be an exciting tournament for Johnson, who has never gone past a third round at a slam.
2. Alexandr Dolgopolov (Ukr)
In contrast to Johnson, Dolgopolov has had success at the slams before. In fact, in his first appearance at Melbourne Park, he upset Robin Soderling and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga on his way to the quarterfinals. Dolgopolov's physical issues have prevented him from getting a high enough ranking to be seeded, but nothing is stopping him from making another run. He has already knocked off one of the seeds in this quarter, defeating Jerzy Janowicz 6-2, 6-2.
Nobody knows what to expect from the Dog from week-to-week, but this could be a couple of the best weeks so far in his career.
3. Ricardas Berankis (Lit)
Dolgopolov's first round opponent, Berankis, is another guy who has a chance to make a run. Unlike either of the other two on this list, Berankis came up through qualifying, which could give him an advantage. Players who come up through qualifying sometimes are able to use the momentum from the previous week to surprise their first round opponents. Berankis comes into the tournament after having played some incredible tennis. In qualifying he won all six of his sets without losing more than four games in any set.
Berankis is also capable of going on big runs when he gets hot. The first time I ever saw Berankis play in person was in Los Angeles in 2012, where he got all the way to the final. And guess what! He came up as a qualifier that week. We already know that Berankis is on fire right now. The only question is can he keep it up?
It wasn't long ago that the Australian Open was the site of some of the biggest upsets in tennis. Whether it was Djokovic ending Roger Federer's streak of consecutive slam finals, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga taking out Nadal, or Marcos Baghdatis reaching the final, the Happy Slam was full of surprises.
This hasn't been the case in the last two years with the top four seeds all reaching the semifinals in both 2011 and 2012. However, Ferrer's quarter could potentially be the location of a huge surprise. With a spot in the semifinals up for grabs, it seems as though nobody in the quarter is prepared to take it. The eight seeds in this quarter of the draw have a combined record of 6-9, and six of the seeds have not even won a match yet this year.
The top seed in the quarter, Ferrer, went on a four-match losing streak to end 2013 after he upset Nadal. That proved to be the trend more than a fluke as he went on to be upset by two players ranked outside of the top 50 in his first two tournaments of the season. Last year's Wimbledon semifinalist, Jerzy Janowicz, won just a total of four games in his only match to get prepared for the first slam of the year.
Tomas Berdych isn't in any better form. Despite winning doubles in Doha, he was upset in straight sets in the first round by Ivo Karlovic, who is a potential third round opponent. The Czech has been known to suffer early upsets at the slams anyways. For seven years in a row, he has lost in the first round of at least one slam each year.
Also, Tommy Haas, Mikhail Youzhny, Ivan Dodig, and Kevin Anderson have all lost their only preparation match for Melbourne. So if all of this players, have such poor form coming into the slam, who is going to reach the semifinals? Someone in this section has to! These are the three unseeded players that I think have the best chance of making a run at the Australian Open.
1. Steve Johnson (USA)

Johnson is no stranger to succeeding in extrememly hot temperatures. As a senior at USC, he had one of the best seasons in tennis history, which led to a National Championship. He knows what it takes to win, and has that winning mentality. When he gets on a roll he is tough to stop, which makes him dangerous to go deep in Melbourne.
The word on the streets is that the courts at the Australian Open are faster and the balls are lighter, which is more good news for the American. He loves to crank his serve and back it up with his best weapon, which is the forehand. The court speed and light balls play right into his strategy, which will make it very difficult to break his serve. This could be an exciting tournament for Johnson, who has never gone past a third round at a slam.

In contrast to Johnson, Dolgopolov has had success at the slams before. In fact, in his first appearance at Melbourne Park, he upset Robin Soderling and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga on his way to the quarterfinals. Dolgopolov's physical issues have prevented him from getting a high enough ranking to be seeded, but nothing is stopping him from making another run. He has already knocked off one of the seeds in this quarter, defeating Jerzy Janowicz 6-2, 6-2.
Nobody knows what to expect from the Dog from week-to-week, but this could be a couple of the best weeks so far in his career.
3. Ricardas Berankis (Lit)
Dolgopolov's first round opponent, Berankis, is another guy who has a chance to make a run. Unlike either of the other two on this list, Berankis came up through qualifying, which could give him an advantage. Players who come up through qualifying sometimes are able to use the momentum from the previous week to surprise their first round opponents. Berankis comes into the tournament after having played some incredible tennis. In qualifying he won all six of his sets without losing more than four games in any set.
Berankis is also capable of going on big runs when he gets hot. The first time I ever saw Berankis play in person was in Los Angeles in 2012, where he got all the way to the final. And guess what! He came up as a qualifier that week. We already know that Berankis is on fire right now. The only question is can he keep it up?
Labels:
Anderson,
Berankis,
Berdych,
Chardy,
Dodig,
Dolgopolov,
Ferrer,
Haas,
Janowicz,
Johnson,
Youzhny
Wednesday, December 25, 2013
100 Predictons for 2014 ATP World Tour
These are my 100 predictions for the upcoming season. I only got 47 right last year, so I'm hoping I can do a little better this year. All of my grand slam predictions for finalists are at the end. I let the fan inside me come out for those predictions. I'll defend my picks a little bit at the end. Federer will finish the season in the top 10 |
Federer will not reach a grand slam final |
Federer will win one or less 1000 event |
Federer will win multiple titles |
Nadal will not be No. 1 after the US Open |
Nadal will defend one or less hard court title |
Nadal will get at least 10,000 ranking points |
Nobody besides Nadal and Djokovic will be No. 1 or 2 |
Nadal and Djokovic will combine for at least 3 slams |
Nadal and Djokovic will combine for at least 16 finals in slams and masters |
Nadal and Djokovic will combine for at least 26,000 ranking points |
Djokovic will win a title in at least four of the first five months of the year |
Djokovic will win multiple titles in tournaments not played on hard courts |
Djokovic will win multiple titles in North America |
Djokovic will have more ranking points than Wawrinka and Murray combined |
Ferrer will drop out of the top five |
Ferrer will earn at least 600 ranking points at one or less tournaments |
Ferrer will not win his 600th career match in 2014 |
Ferrer will win multiple titles for the fifth consecutive year |
Murray will not win a grand slam |
Murray will finish with less than 8,000 ranking points |
Murray will reach one or less semifinals at clay tournaments |
Murray and Nadal will meet each other one or less times |
Murray will get at least six top 10 wins |
Del Potro will be a top four seed at Wimbledon |
Del Potro will reach multiple slam semifinals |
Del Potro will reach a final in a 1000 or slam before by the end of US Open |
Del Potro will win more clay matches than Murray |
Del Potro will earn at least $4,000,000 in prize money |
Del Potro won't win a five-set match against Nadal, Djokovic, or Murray |
Berdych will win a title |
Berdych won't win a five-set match against Nadal, Djokovic, or Murray |
Berdych will reach the semifinals of at least eight events again |
Berdych will end the year ranked higher than Ferrer |
Berdych will set a personal record for titles in a season |
Berdych, Tsonga, and Federer will not win a grand slam |
Wawrinka will never be ranked higher than seven |
Wawrinka will fail to reach the quarterfinals in at least two slams |
Wawrinka will not beat Djokovic or Nadal |
Wawrinka will not finish in the top eight |
Gasquet will reach one or less slam quarterfinal |
Gasquet will not finish in the top 10 |
Gasquet will win a title in France |
Gasquet will win a five-set match |
Gasquet will win at least 42 matches |
Tsonga will finish the year as the top-ranked Frenchman |
Tsonga will reach the second week in Roland Garros and Wimbledon |
Tsonga will defeat three former grand slam champions |
Tsonga will win multiple titles |
Tsonga will get at least five wins against top 10 opponents |
Raonic will finish the year in the top 10 |
Raonic will win a title without dropping serve |
Raonic will lead the tour in aces |
Raonic will win at least 10 matches on grass and clay combined |
Raonic will reach the quarterfinals in at least eight tournaments |
Haas will drop outside the top 20 before Wimbledon |
Almagro will win at least 40 matches |
Almagro will win a title in South America |
Isner will hit at least 900 aces |
Fognini will crack the top 15 before the end of February |
Anderson will drop out of top 20 before end of March and won't return |
Janowicz will finish the year in the top 13 |
Janowicz will earn at least 500 ranking points from one event |
Dimitrov will not win title |
Dimitrov will reach the top 15 for the first time in his career |
Dimitrov will reach the fourth round at a slam |
Gulbis will reach a career-high ranking before March |
Paire will have more double faults than any player in the top 20 |
Pospisil will reach the top 28 by the end of Wimbledon |
Cilic's year-end ranking will be at least 15 spots better than at the start of July |
Tomic will not reach the top 20 at any point in the season |
Dolgopolov will lose in the first or second round in at least two slams |
Between Hewitt, Haas, and Robredo, at least one will retire |
Nobody younger than Jiri Vesely will finish the year ranked higher than him |
Vesely will win a grand slam match |
Harrison will reach a final |
Klahn and Young will both be in the top 10 for left-handed players |
Sock will earn $500,000 in prize money |
Lajovic will crack the top 100 |
Giraldo will make more in prize money than Seppi |
Lopez will hit more aces than Karlovic |
Simon's winning record will be better than his percentage of points won |
Istomin will hit more aces than he will face break points |
Brands will have more break points on his return than on his serve |
Brands will reach a final and have a winning record |
Matosevic will win a grand slam match |
Verdasco will not get more than 300 points at a single tournament |
Querrey & Istomin will combine for more ranking points than Haas & Seppi |
Exactly four players from Spanish speaking countries will finish in the top 20 |
At most, 15 different countries will be represented in the top 20 |
Spain will have most players in top 15, but France will have most in top 25 |
At least 20 tournaments will be won by players from that country |
The United States will have more players in the top 100 than Germany |
No player will reach the top 10 for the first time |
The finalists at each slam will be players who have already reached a final |
Djokovic will beat Nadal in the Australian Open final |
Djokovic will beat Nadal in the Roland Garros final |
Djokovic will beat Del Potro in the Wimbledon final |
Djokovic will beat Murray in the US Open final |
Djokovic will finish the year No. 1 in
the world As I thought about my picks for the grand slams, I tried to think about which slam I thought Djokovic wouldn't win, and I couldn't think of any slam that he wouldn't win. He owns the Australian Open, and who will beat him? Murray is coming off an injury and Djokovic owns the rivalry with Nadal on hard courts since the US Open. For Roland Garros, that is going to be Djokovic's biggest goal of the year. He proved he is good enough to win it last year. I think this is the year that he finally gets it done. Wimbledon will be the tough one for Djokovic. Federer and Nadal proved that they won't ever win another Wimbledon with their disappointing performances last year, so it comes down to Djokovic, Murray, and Del Potro. It will be easier to predict a winner when the draw comes out, but a repeat would be difficult for Murray, and Del Potro has a poor five-set record in his career. At the US Open, Djokovic has always done well. His first slam final was at the US Open and he has reached four consecutive finals there. I also predicted Djokovic would win all four in 2013 and I was wrong of course. I would be shocked if Djokovic actually does win the calendar slam, but I'm not sure which one he will lose. This is certainly going to be a fun season at the slams. |
Thursday, December 19, 2013
Top 10 Predictions
In my last post, I predicted what the year-end rankings would be in 2014 for the top 100. However, I want to take a closer look at how the top 10 will break down. I was reading some forums on top 10 predictions for the end of next year. My list isn't too much different from those I read about, but as you get to five through 10, things change a little. This is my prediction for the top 10.
Rank Name Current Ranking
Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal - For the third time in four years, these two will be the top two. It will be a tight race to the end, but I am giving Djokovic a slight edge, because the majority of the season is played on his favorite surface, hard courts. In their rivalry, court surface doesn't seem to have much of an effect on the result, but outside of the head-to-head matchups, it's clear that Djokovic enjoys the hard courts much more than his rival. These two are going to dominate the sport in 2014. There are 14 tournaments that they both play in every year: 4 slams, 9 1000's, and the year-end finals. Of those 14 tournaments, these two won 12 of them in 2013. I am predicting that they will win at least 12 again in 2014. Also, of the 28 finalists in those tournaments, Nadal and Djokovic made up 16 of them. I am predicting that it will be more than 16 in 2014. I am also predicting that the pair will combine for at least 26,000 ranking points.
Andy Murray - Since Djokovic and Nadal will combine for so many points, Murray won't need to win much to take third. In 2013, David Ferrer only needed 5,800 to be No. 3 in the world. Although Murray will need even less than that most likely, I am predicting that he will earn more than 5,800 ranking points. However, he won't have 8,000 either, which is what he finished with in 2012. Murray is going to do well on the grass and hard courts, but collect next to no ranking points on the clay. If he gets to the final of more than one slam, it will have been a good season for Murray. It's still hard to know how he will recover from back surgery, but don't expect a Nadal-like comeback for the Brit in 2014.
Juan Martin Del Potro - Most people on the forums had the same top five as me, but at No. 4, there was a little deviation, even from the level-headed fans on the forums. Del Potro is capable of being great on all surfaces unlike Murray. However, the Argentine is notorious for slow starts. He has never reached the semifinals at the Australian Open and has failed to reach the second week five times. After that though, you can almost guarantee that he will reach the semifinals at each of the other three slams. He hasn't been in a slam final since he beat Roger Federer in 2009 at the US Open though. I am predicting that Del Potro will not reach a grand slam final, he will reach multiple slam semifinals, and he will fail to win a 1000.
Roger Federer - I just read an article that predicted that Federer would drop out of the top 10 and fail to win a title in 2014. The last time people were jumping off someone's bandwagon this fast was when Tiger Woods had his scandal. Tennis fans need to calm down when it comes to Roger Federer. His back problems are gone, he is sticking with his usual racket, any coaching issues that may have existed are gone, and he finished 2013 with some great results. All of these things are reasons to believe that Federer will have a fantastic season. I'm more worried that he will finish better than five than below. If it really does come down to Federer and Del Potro for the No. 4 spot, don't be surprised if Federer is the one who comes out on top. Despite his struggles in 2013, Federer still won two-of-three matches against Del Potro. For 2014, I am predicting that Federer wins multiple titles, and notches at least five wins against top 10 opponents.
Tomas Berdych - This is where things started getting a little crazy on the forums. Almost everyone had Berdych in the top 10, but his ranking was all over the place from No. 5 to No. 10. Seems like every year, Berdych has an early exit at one of the slams. Maybe this will finally be the year that he reaches the quarterfinals at all three tournaments. Even if he doesn't though, finishing top six shouldn't be hard. As I've mentioned before, Nadal and Djokovic will hog all of the points, so there won't be much leftover for the rest of the top ten. Berdych didn't earn any more than 360 points at any tournament last year and he still finished No. 7. All he has to do to finish No. 6 in 2014 is equal his performance from last year, which includes a first round exit at Roland Garros and second round exits at three of the 1000 events. I am predicting Berdych will reach the semifinals at multiple 1000 events, but not reach the final at any of them, and he will reach the US Open semifinals. He will also win three titles in one season for the first time in his career.
David Ferrer - I said he would do poorly in 2013, and I was wrong. However, I am saying he will not be a top five player again in 2014. He can't stay in the top five forever. After failing to win a match at the year-end finals, it's increasingly difficult to see Ferrer sticking around in the top five. There is no way he will be reaching a slam final ever again. Maybe he will reach one final of a 1000. However, he has always gotten a large chunk of his points from 250's and 500's. Those points will be tough to earn next year, since Nadal has almost an identical schedule for 2014. Ferrer might be able to steal a few easy 250's, but other than that he won't win any titles in 2014. For Ferrer, my predictions are that he will win less than one-fifth of his matches against top 10 players, he will not reach more than one final of the main 14 tournaments, and he will meet Nadal at least five times.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - I said that I will continue to edit my picks up until the first day of the Brisbane Open, and there is a good chance that I will chicken out on this prediction. After his incredible result at Roland Garros last year, he did next to nothing to convince me that he will even be a top 10 player this year. I predicted last year that every player who finished 2012 in the top eight would be in the top eight at the end of 2013. Tsonga was the only one that failed to make it true. Once again though, I am predicting that the top eight at the end of 2012 will be the top eight at the end of this season. To be a top 10 player demands consistency. Tsonga has done that. Despite injuries throughout the second half of 2013, he still finished in the top 10. He hasn't spent a day outside the top 10 since August 2011. Although he might drop down early in the 2014 season, he doesn't have much to defend in the second half, so I won't be pressing the panic button if he drops as low as 12 or 13. For Tsonga, I am predicting that he will make the semifinals in at least one of the slams and he will reach the quarterfinals in at least five of the 1000's.
Stanislas Wawrinka - Putting my trust in Wawrinka has been hard for me. After I correctly predicted that he would reach the 2011 Australian Open quarterfinals, he was my go-to man for the rest of 2011. He let me down almost every time for the rest of the 2011 season. People on the forums are much more confident in Wawrinka than I am. Everyone had him in the top 10 and some had him as high as No. 5. This is the guy who just 12 months ago was the only player in the top 20 without a title. What sticks in the minds of fans though is his epic matches with Djokovic and his good showing at the year-end finals. Aside from those events though, the only thing Wawrinka did well was benefit from Grigor Dimitrov's win over Djokovic in Madrid to take an easy path to the final. Like the rest of his career, Wawrinka was still very streaky in 2013. If the draws don't open up for him in 2014 like they did in 2013, the top 10 will be tough to reach. I am predicting that Wawrinka will fail to reach the quarterfinals at minimally two of the slams and four of the 1000's. Also he will not win a title at any event bigger than a 250.
Milos Raonic - Raonic sort of slid into this position by process of elimination. We know the Canadian is good for a couple titles next year, so he is always a safe bet. You can also mark him down for a few top ten wins, and since he is already ranked 11, a top ten win usually results in 300 or 360 points depending on the tournament. With a guarantee of those points, the rest is all bonus and it should be enough to get him in the top 10. For Raonic, I am predicting he wins at least a quarter of his matches against top 10 opponents, also he will lead the tour in aces and win a tournament without dropping serve.
The Rest - Most of the other names being thrown around were Richard Gasquet, Kei Nishikori, or young guys that fans are hoping finally break through. I put Gasquet at 11 on my list and I was trying to convince myself that he belonged that high. He played to the best of his ability in 2013 and barely earned a spot in London. I don't think he can do as well in 2014 and finishing in the top 11 would be a great season. Nishikori is going to get injured in 2014. It is just way too risky to predict him finishing in the top 15 even. Grigor Dimitrov is one of the young guys expected to break through, but he still has a long way to go. I picked him to finish at 15, and that seemed generous. Jerzy Janowicz was on more people's lists than even Tsonga. The Pole lacks consistent results. Whether it be Wimbledon or Bercy, he relies on one big result to carry his ranking for the season. He reached the quarterfinals at just two of the big tournaments all season. It takes at least five or six to crack the top 10. I think he will continue to make progress, but I have him finishing the season at No. 13.
Rank Name Current Ranking
1 | Novak Djokovic | 2 |
2 | Rafael Nadal | 1 |
3 | Andy Murray | 4 |
4 | Juan Martin del Potro | 5 |
5 | Roger Federer | 6 |
6 | Tomas Berdych | 7 |
7 | David Ferrer | 3 |
8 | Jo-Wilfried Tsonga | 10 |
9 | Stanislas Wawrinka | 8 |
10 | Milos Raonic | 11 |
Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal - For the third time in four years, these two will be the top two. It will be a tight race to the end, but I am giving Djokovic a slight edge, because the majority of the season is played on his favorite surface, hard courts. In their rivalry, court surface doesn't seem to have much of an effect on the result, but outside of the head-to-head matchups, it's clear that Djokovic enjoys the hard courts much more than his rival. These two are going to dominate the sport in 2014. There are 14 tournaments that they both play in every year: 4 slams, 9 1000's, and the year-end finals. Of those 14 tournaments, these two won 12 of them in 2013. I am predicting that they will win at least 12 again in 2014. Also, of the 28 finalists in those tournaments, Nadal and Djokovic made up 16 of them. I am predicting that it will be more than 16 in 2014. I am also predicting that the pair will combine for at least 26,000 ranking points.
Andy Murray - Since Djokovic and Nadal will combine for so many points, Murray won't need to win much to take third. In 2013, David Ferrer only needed 5,800 to be No. 3 in the world. Although Murray will need even less than that most likely, I am predicting that he will earn more than 5,800 ranking points. However, he won't have 8,000 either, which is what he finished with in 2012. Murray is going to do well on the grass and hard courts, but collect next to no ranking points on the clay. If he gets to the final of more than one slam, it will have been a good season for Murray. It's still hard to know how he will recover from back surgery, but don't expect a Nadal-like comeback for the Brit in 2014.
Juan Martin Del Potro - Most people on the forums had the same top five as me, but at No. 4, there was a little deviation, even from the level-headed fans on the forums. Del Potro is capable of being great on all surfaces unlike Murray. However, the Argentine is notorious for slow starts. He has never reached the semifinals at the Australian Open and has failed to reach the second week five times. After that though, you can almost guarantee that he will reach the semifinals at each of the other three slams. He hasn't been in a slam final since he beat Roger Federer in 2009 at the US Open though. I am predicting that Del Potro will not reach a grand slam final, he will reach multiple slam semifinals, and he will fail to win a 1000.
Roger Federer - I just read an article that predicted that Federer would drop out of the top 10 and fail to win a title in 2014. The last time people were jumping off someone's bandwagon this fast was when Tiger Woods had his scandal. Tennis fans need to calm down when it comes to Roger Federer. His back problems are gone, he is sticking with his usual racket, any coaching issues that may have existed are gone, and he finished 2013 with some great results. All of these things are reasons to believe that Federer will have a fantastic season. I'm more worried that he will finish better than five than below. If it really does come down to Federer and Del Potro for the No. 4 spot, don't be surprised if Federer is the one who comes out on top. Despite his struggles in 2013, Federer still won two-of-three matches against Del Potro. For 2014, I am predicting that Federer wins multiple titles, and notches at least five wins against top 10 opponents.
Tomas Berdych - This is where things started getting a little crazy on the forums. Almost everyone had Berdych in the top 10, but his ranking was all over the place from No. 5 to No. 10. Seems like every year, Berdych has an early exit at one of the slams. Maybe this will finally be the year that he reaches the quarterfinals at all three tournaments. Even if he doesn't though, finishing top six shouldn't be hard. As I've mentioned before, Nadal and Djokovic will hog all of the points, so there won't be much leftover for the rest of the top ten. Berdych didn't earn any more than 360 points at any tournament last year and he still finished No. 7. All he has to do to finish No. 6 in 2014 is equal his performance from last year, which includes a first round exit at Roland Garros and second round exits at three of the 1000 events. I am predicting Berdych will reach the semifinals at multiple 1000 events, but not reach the final at any of them, and he will reach the US Open semifinals. He will also win three titles in one season for the first time in his career.
David Ferrer - I said he would do poorly in 2013, and I was wrong. However, I am saying he will not be a top five player again in 2014. He can't stay in the top five forever. After failing to win a match at the year-end finals, it's increasingly difficult to see Ferrer sticking around in the top five. There is no way he will be reaching a slam final ever again. Maybe he will reach one final of a 1000. However, he has always gotten a large chunk of his points from 250's and 500's. Those points will be tough to earn next year, since Nadal has almost an identical schedule for 2014. Ferrer might be able to steal a few easy 250's, but other than that he won't win any titles in 2014. For Ferrer, my predictions are that he will win less than one-fifth of his matches against top 10 players, he will not reach more than one final of the main 14 tournaments, and he will meet Nadal at least five times.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - I said that I will continue to edit my picks up until the first day of the Brisbane Open, and there is a good chance that I will chicken out on this prediction. After his incredible result at Roland Garros last year, he did next to nothing to convince me that he will even be a top 10 player this year. I predicted last year that every player who finished 2012 in the top eight would be in the top eight at the end of 2013. Tsonga was the only one that failed to make it true. Once again though, I am predicting that the top eight at the end of 2012 will be the top eight at the end of this season. To be a top 10 player demands consistency. Tsonga has done that. Despite injuries throughout the second half of 2013, he still finished in the top 10. He hasn't spent a day outside the top 10 since August 2011. Although he might drop down early in the 2014 season, he doesn't have much to defend in the second half, so I won't be pressing the panic button if he drops as low as 12 or 13. For Tsonga, I am predicting that he will make the semifinals in at least one of the slams and he will reach the quarterfinals in at least five of the 1000's.
Stanislas Wawrinka - Putting my trust in Wawrinka has been hard for me. After I correctly predicted that he would reach the 2011 Australian Open quarterfinals, he was my go-to man for the rest of 2011. He let me down almost every time for the rest of the 2011 season. People on the forums are much more confident in Wawrinka than I am. Everyone had him in the top 10 and some had him as high as No. 5. This is the guy who just 12 months ago was the only player in the top 20 without a title. What sticks in the minds of fans though is his epic matches with Djokovic and his good showing at the year-end finals. Aside from those events though, the only thing Wawrinka did well was benefit from Grigor Dimitrov's win over Djokovic in Madrid to take an easy path to the final. Like the rest of his career, Wawrinka was still very streaky in 2013. If the draws don't open up for him in 2014 like they did in 2013, the top 10 will be tough to reach. I am predicting that Wawrinka will fail to reach the quarterfinals at minimally two of the slams and four of the 1000's. Also he will not win a title at any event bigger than a 250.
Milos Raonic - Raonic sort of slid into this position by process of elimination. We know the Canadian is good for a couple titles next year, so he is always a safe bet. You can also mark him down for a few top ten wins, and since he is already ranked 11, a top ten win usually results in 300 or 360 points depending on the tournament. With a guarantee of those points, the rest is all bonus and it should be enough to get him in the top 10. For Raonic, I am predicting he wins at least a quarter of his matches against top 10 opponents, also he will lead the tour in aces and win a tournament without dropping serve.
The Rest - Most of the other names being thrown around were Richard Gasquet, Kei Nishikori, or young guys that fans are hoping finally break through. I put Gasquet at 11 on my list and I was trying to convince myself that he belonged that high. He played to the best of his ability in 2013 and barely earned a spot in London. I don't think he can do as well in 2014 and finishing in the top 11 would be a great season. Nishikori is going to get injured in 2014. It is just way too risky to predict him finishing in the top 15 even. Grigor Dimitrov is one of the young guys expected to break through, but he still has a long way to go. I picked him to finish at 15, and that seemed generous. Jerzy Janowicz was on more people's lists than even Tsonga. The Pole lacks consistent results. Whether it be Wimbledon or Bercy, he relies on one big result to carry his ranking for the season. He reached the quarterfinals at just two of the big tournaments all season. It takes at least five or six to crack the top 10. I think he will continue to make progress, but I have him finishing the season at No. 13.
2014 Year-end Rankings Predictions
For the past few years, I have spent the tennis off-season predicting what will happen in the upcoming season. Since the start of the 2012 season, what I have done is predicted what the rankings will be of the top 100 at the end of the season. On my first try, I correctly predicted the 2012 year-end ranking of six players. However, I was wrong by 31.1 spots on average for each player. In predicting the year-end ranking for 2013, I had three perfect picks and missed by 31.56 spots on average. I just finished my predictions for the 2014 year-end rankings. However I will be updating them to try to improve them up until the first match of the season in Brisbane. Let me know what you think of my predictions. Which names did I leave off the list? Who did I predict to do to well? Who am I underestimating? I want to hear your thoughts.
Rank Name Current Ranking
Notable missing players: Lleyton Hewitt, Radek Stepanek, Nicolas Mahut, Nikolay Davydenko, Albert Montanes, Filippo Volandri, Ivo Karlovic, Benjamin Becker, Victor Hanescu, Lukasz Kubot, Kenny De Schepper, Michael Russell, Go Soeda, Dustin Brown
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Nadal and Djokovic have both finished in the top two for two of the past three years, and 2014 shouldn't be any different. |
Rank Name Current Ranking
1 | Novak Djokovic | 2 |
2 | Rafael Nadal | 1 |
3 | Andy Murray | 4 |
4 | Juan Martin del Potro | 5 |
5 | Roger Federer | 6 |
6 | Tomas Berdych | 7 |
7 | David Ferrer | 3 |
8 | Jo-Wilfried Tsonga | 10 |
9 | Stanislas Wawrinka | 8 |
10 | Milos Raonic | 11 |
11 | Richard Gasquet | 9 |
12 | Nicolas Almagro | 13 |
13 | Jerzy Janowicz | 21 |
14 | Marin Cilic | 37 |
15 | Grigor Dimitrov | 23 |
16 | John Isner | 14 |
17 | Kei Nishikori | 17 |
18 | Fabio Fognini | 16 |
19 | Kevin Anderson | 20 |
20 | Ernests Gulbis | 24 |
21 | Gilles Simon | 19 |
22 | Benoit Paire | 26 |
23 | Sam Querrey | 46 |
24 | Gael Monfils | 31 |
25 | Denis Istomin | 45 |
26 | Bernard Tomic | 51 |
27 | Tommy Haas | 12 |
28 | Jeremy Chardy | 34 |
29 | Mikhail Youzhny | 15 |
30 | Philipp Kohlschreiber | 22 |
31 | Daniel Brands | 54 |
32 | Janko Tipsarevic | 36 |
33 | Fernando Verdasco | 30 |
34 | Vasek Pospisil | 32 |
35 | Alexandr Dolgopolov | 57 |
36 | Marinko Matosevic | 61 |
37 | Frederico Delbonis | 55 |
38 | Santiago Giraldo | 69 |
39 | Tommy Robredo | 18 |
40 | Andreas Seppi | 25 |
41 | Dmitry Tursunov | 29 |
42 | Jurgen Melzer | 27 |
43 | Ivan Dodig | 33 |
44 | Marcel Granollers | 38 |
45 | Feliciano Lopez | 28 |
46 | Juan Monaco | 42 |
47 | Robin Haase | 43 |
48 | Joao Sousa | 49 |
49 | Roberto Bautsita Agut | 58 |
50 | Julien Benneteau | 35 |
51 | Jarkko Nieminen | 39 |
52 | Lukas Rosol | 47 |
53 | Ryan Harrison | 100 |
54 | Edouard Roger-Vasselin | 52 |
55 | Pablo Carreno Busta | 64 |
56 | Matthew Ebden | 68 |
57 | Lukas Lacko | 81 |
58 | Jiri Vesely | 85 |
59 | Jack Sock | 102 |
60 | Somdev Devvarman | 90 |
61 | Marcos Baghdatis | 87 |
62 | Bradley Klahn | 97 |
63 | Martin Klizan | 108 |
64 | Albert Ramos | 83 |
65 | Igor Sijsling | 70 |
66 | Leonardo Mayer | 94 |
67 | Thomaz Bellucci | 125 |
68 | Florian Mayer | 40 |
69 | Donald Young | 96 |
70 | Julian Reister | 86 |
71 | Pablo Andujar | 48 |
72 | Ricardas Berankis | 131 |
73 | Guillermo Garcia-Lopez | 62 |
74 | Yen-Hsun Lu | 65 |
75 | David Goffin | 110 |
76 | Mikhail Kukushkin | 67 |
77 | Grega Zemlja | 121 |
78 | Carlos Berlocq | 41 |
79 | Tobias Kamke | 74 |
80 | Adrian Mannarino | 59 |
81 | Michal Przysiezny | 66 |
82 | Denis Kudla | 114 |
83 | Dusan Lajovic | 116 |
84 | Aljaz Bedene | 95 |
85 | Tim Smyczek | 89 |
86 | Teymuraz Gabashvili | 76 |
87 | Steve Johnson | 156 |
88 | Daniel Gimeno-Traver | 77 |
89 | Nick Kyrgios | 182 |
90 | Andrey Golubev | 82 |
91 | Rhyne Williams | 130 |
92 | Alex Bogomolov Jr. | 88 |
93 | Guido Pella | 118 |
94 | Alejando Falla | 99 |
95 | Sergiy Stakhovsky | 98 |
96 | Horacio Zeballos | 56 |
97 | Alejando Gonzalez | 91 |
98 | Dominic Thiem | 139 |
99 | Viktor Troicki | 75 |
100 | Guillaume Rufin | 137 |
Notable missing players: Lleyton Hewitt, Radek Stepanek, Nicolas Mahut, Nikolay Davydenko, Albert Montanes, Filippo Volandri, Ivo Karlovic, Benjamin Becker, Victor Hanescu, Lukasz Kubot, Kenny De Schepper, Michael Russell, Go Soeda, Dustin Brown
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