Australian Open Week 1 Preview

The Australian Open draw came out today with a stacked top half full of exciting matchups. Here is a look at the most anticipated matches during the first week of the first slam of 2014.

1st Round: Before the draw came out, I was looking at how many quality players were going to be unseeded, and I thought there would be plenty of exciting first round encounters. I was dead wrong about that. The most dangerous unseeded players like Querrey, Dolgopolov, Istomin, and Cilic avoided playing seeded players in the first round. Then Ivo Karlovic, who actually did draw a seeded player, got 32-seed Ivan Dodig. However, there are two matches that will get my full attention when they are on.

The first is No. 24 Andreas Seppi (Ita) vs. Lleyton Hewitt (Aus). If I had to bet that any match would go five sets, this would be the one. At the last five grand slams, Hewitt has played 11 matches. Four of them went five sets, and five of them were four sets. Seppi's numbers knack for long matches is even more impressive. He has played 11 five-set matches in his last 19 completed slam matches. Even in Davis Cup play last year, he had a five-set match. If you aren't convinced yet that this match is going the distance, let me tell you about their head-to-head record. In six matches, the record is tied 3-3. Although they have never played a best-of-five match, each of their first three encounters were determined in a deciding set. Many fans would argue that Hewitt always plays his best in Australia is playing too well right now to need five sets to beat Seppi. However, when they met merely three months ago, Seppi won 6-4, 6-2. Seppi also has already defeated Hewitt once in Australia with a 4-6, 7-5, 7-5 win in Sydney 2006. I am picking Hewitt to win though.

The second is No. 1 Rafael Nadal (Esp) vs. Bernard Tomic (Aus). Nadal will likely win this one in straight sets, but it should still be fun to watch. The two also met three years ago in Melbourne in the third round, where Nadal won in three sets, so it will be interesting to see how much Tomic's game has improved since he was just 18.



2nd Round: This is the last round before the seeded players begin to play each other, so this round also lacks some really intriguing matchups. Marin Cilic does have a chance to take out a seeded player when he plays against Gilles Simon. Also, Fernando Verdasco will take on red-hot Sergiy Stakhovsky for the right to play Roger Federer, who Stakhovsky beat in Wimbledon last year. As someone who used to attend the tournament in Los Angeles each year, a potential matchup of former champions Ernests Gulbis and Sam Querrey will be interesting.

3rd Round: This is where the fun begins. This is the kind of day where you want to have different matches being played on your computer, tablet, and phone all at once. Thankfully, at the slams each round takes two days.

Gael Monfils and Nadal should meet in a rematch of the Doha final, which went three sets. Kei Nishikori versus Lleyton Hewitt would be an instant sellout in the Asia/Pacific Slam. Then Milos Raonic and Grigor Dimitrov would be a matchup between the two best young players on tour. Dimitrov would be in search of his first trip to the second week of a slam. Juan Martin del Potro will get his first test in the third round, where he will likely play Benoit Paire, who upset him in Rome last year.

Then we get to go through the awkwardness of Judy Murray being at a "Deliciano" Lopez match, when he takes on her son, Andy Murray. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga will either face his countryman Gilles Simon or former top 10 player Marin Cilic, who is trying to climb the rankings again. Then, as mentioned before, we could see Stakhovsky get his rematch against Federer. All of those matches are just in the top half of the draw, so they will all be played on the same day. Thankfully Monfils is in one of the matches, so he and Dustin Brown likely won't play in doubles that day too.


However, there is one match that I left out, which I think will be the best out of all of them. That is the matchup between No. 21 Philipp Kohlschreiber (Ger) and No. 13 John Isner (USA). The pair met just yesterday, when John Isner came back from down a set to win in three tiebreak sets. Isner leads the head-to-head 4-2 now, but has never beat Kohlschreiber in a best-of-five match. Only one match between the two hasn't gone to a deciding set. That was a four-set match that the German won at the US Open, which was the second time Kohlschreiber has beaten the top-ranked American at his home slam. Needless to say, Isner would love to get some revenge.

4 Most Overrated and Underrated Players going into 2014

It's always fun to discus who the most and underrated players in tennis are. And the unique thing about the conversation it is impossible to agree. If everyone thinks that a player is underrated, then they are overrating that player. For many people the definition of overrated and underrated vary. For this post, I defined overrated and underrated based on expectations for 2014. Players that are expected (by fans and analysts) to do too much are overrated, while players whose expectations are too low are underrated. With that, here are the four most overrated and underrated tennis players going into the 2014 tennis season.
Overrated
1. Stanislas Wawrinka- It is easy to overrate a guy who has his biggest results on the biggest stages in the game. The tennis world stopped during Wawrinka's incredible matches against Djokovic to see him play in two of the best matches of the year. However, when Wawrinka lost four-of-five matches to players with an average ranking of 92, nobody noticed. Wawrinka did have an incredible 2013 season, but staying in the top eight in the world for 2014 is far from a guarantee.
2. Jerzy Janowicz- Once again his ranking is balancing on one leg. If he doesn't have another huge result before Wimbledon, he could drop out of the top 40. Janowicz's incredible runs in Paris and Wimbledon have been the only times a lot of fans have gotten to see him (aside from his awesome tirade in Melbourne). Take away his two amazing results in the last 48 months and he wouldn't even be noteworthy. Consistency is the key to the top 10 and he lacks that severely. I expect him to improve in 2014, but the top 10 finish that many are predicting is very unlikely.
3. Andy Murray- Murray will always be overrated since he won Wimbledon, so I should probably just get used to it. However, the expectations for Murray in 2014 are just absurd. People don't realize just how bad of a 2013 season he had. Yes, he won Miami, Wimbledon and reached the final in Melbourne, but outside of those three tournaments, it was another poor season. Poor may be a harsh word for someone who finished the season ranked No. 4 in the world, but fans always want to put him as part of the Big Four and by Djokovic and Nadal's standards, it was a poor season. In 2014, Murray is going to lay an egg on clay, while fail to put together consecutive good results on hard courts. His longest winning streak in 2014 will be less than 15.
4. Grigor Dimitrov- BabyFed will likely crack the top 10 eventually, but not this year. His win over an injured Djokovic set the expectations unrealistically high for the Bulgarian. I want him to do well just like everyone else, but the results aren't going to come immediately. It's going to take time.

Underrated
1. Roger Federer- He is the greatest of all time, so he can't possibly be overrated, and he is quite underrated. One of the downsides of being the greatest of all time is that every match he plays is watched. He can't sneak an early round loss past anyone. Anytime he loses, there are headlines. Federer actually did have a decent 2013 season compared to what most people think, and there are a lot of reasons to think 2014 will be even better. Way too many people are predicting  that Federer won't finish in the top 10 or won't win a title. He still is Roger Federer. He might not win a grand slam, but that doesn't mean he isn't good enough to qualify for London. There is no way BabyFed or his countryman Wawrinka will outperform him in 2014.

2. Gilles Simon- Simon is by far the most underrated player of our generation. His playing style doesn't excite most fans, but that doesn't mean it doesn't work. Simon has been in the top 20 since May of 2011, but he doesn't get a lot of attention for it. Simon is one of the smartest players on the court, but also one of the smartest when it comes to scheduling. Every season Simon picks the right tournaments to play to get the maximum amount of ranking points, which is why he will stay in the top 20 in 2014 even if he doesn't get the attention he deserves.
3. Sam Querrey- No doubt it was a disappointing year for the United States' No. 2 player. Dropping out of the top 40 for the second time since he broke through was not one of his goals for the season, but that doesn't mean he is doomed in 2014. A lot of pressure is off Querrey right now, because the expectations are so low. Querrey hasn't played a match since Beijing so it will be a long off season for him to get prepared. Expect a resurgent 2014 season for the American No. 2.
4. Ryan Harrison- This is probably a surprising player to see on the list. For so long, Harrison had been so overrated. Then his 2013 season proved once and for all that he will never meet the hype surrounding him. However, what this has done is put the expectations incredibly low for one of the most competitive players on tour. He still  is just 21-years old and has a career-high ranking of 43. While I don't expect him to return to his career-high ranking, it won't be such a struggle to for Harrison to stay in the top 100. With how low expectations are for Harrison, he should have no problem surpassing them.