These are the rankings of how each country has done since the end of the 2013 tennis season. Rankings are based mainly on the year-to-date ranking of the individuals from that country from before Memphis, Rotterdam, and Buenos Aires began.
1. Switzerland - When two of the three best players in the world come from the same country, it's a safe bet that that country is the best in the world. Stanislas Wawrinka and Roger Federer have been on fire to start 2014. Wawrinka won the Australian Open and Chennai, while Federer reached the final of Brisbane and semifinals in Melbourne. The next week, the two worked together to send Switzerland to the Davis Cup quarterfinals. The country finished 2012 in my top four, but dropped down to No. 7 in 2013. Switzerland could challenge for a top three finish in 2014 thanks to poor starts from Argentina and Serbia.
2. Spain- Doha champion and Australian Open semifinalist Rafael Nadal alone has done enough to earn Spain a top three spot on this list. Add on the effort of 10 other players in the top 140 for the year-to-date rankings, and the Spaniards are in a good position to start the season. Spain has been No. 1 in every 52-week Power Rankings list. With the clay season just over a month away, it won't be long before the country is No. 1 in the year-to-date Power Rankings list.
3. France- Strength in numbers is a phrase that is exemplified by French tennis. The country lacks a clear No. 1, with the spot being shared by Gilles Simon, Gael Monfils, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, and Richard Gasquet over the past few years. However, it has always remained on of the top three countries simply because there are so many Frenchmen at the top of the game. Both at the end of 2012 and 2013, France was the most well-represented country in the top 140. There are already 14 Frenchmen in the top 140 in the world so far in 2014, which is three more than any other country.
4. Germany- After starting the season as the top country in the world, has cooled off a bit. However, Germany still finds itself at No. 4. Despite poor starts from Tommy Haas and Philipp Kohlschreiber, the rest of Germany has picked up the slack. Florian Mayer has already racked up a country-best 310 ranking points in 2014 and led the country to a Davis Cup win over No. 2 Spain. Peter Gojowczyk started the year 14-2 in all matches and cracked the top 100 for the first time in his career. 33-year old Michael Berrer has come up through qualifying and advanced to the second round of two different tournaments, including the Australian Open.
5. United States- Aside from John Isner's title in Auckland, it has been all about the young Americans, who put the United States in the top five. The US just missed out on top five finishes in 2012 and 2013, finishing No. 6 this year. Staying ahead of Serbia seems unlikely, but the possibility of jumping Germany is there if Sam Querrey and Isner can return to form. The US is tied with Spain for second best representation in the year-to-date rankings with 11 different players in the top 140. Bradley Klahn has already claimed two challenger titles this year, while Steve Johnson has one of his own. Donald Young also reached the third round of the Australian Open.
6. Argentina- Leonardo Mayer has reached the final in Vina Del Mar and won a challenger title already. The 26-year old is now near a career-high ranking. This could be a breakthrough kind of year for him. Juan Martin del Potro also has a 250 title of his own, but a disappointing performance at the Australian Open overshadowed his success. Once the clay season comes, Argentina will rise in the rankings with players like Guido Pella, Carlos Berlocq, Juan Monaco and Martin Alund typically playing their best tennis on clay.
7. Czech Republic- Although two-time defending Davis Cup champions, Czech Republic has never done too well in the Power Rankings. The Czechs usually stay between eight and 10 in the rankings, but a semifinal performance at the Australian Open by Tomas Berdych has gotten the country to a good start. These rankings were made before Berdych's title in Rotterdam, so the Czech Republic will continue to rise in the rankings as the season goes on.
8. Australia- Since the start of each season is in Australia, the country always starts better than it finishes. Australia won't continue to benefit from teenagers, who took advantage of wildcards, so their ranking will drop several starts by the end of June. However, Lleyton Hewitt defeated Roger Federer to win Brisbane, which proves that he still can compete with anyone on tour. We also got a look at just how good the teenagers in Australia are, so even though they won't be on tour for a few more years, the future of Australian tennis is very good. Players like Nick Kyrgios, Luke Saville, and Thanasi Kokkinakis will join Bernard Tomic to form a very solid group of Australians that all be future top 50 players.
9. Japan- Kei Nishikori has carried Japan's ranking for a few years now, keeping them at around 15. However, Japan's depth is growing quickly with four other players in the top 100 of the year-to-date rankings. Taro Daniel, who trains in Spain could be the most promising of all of them. Daniel reached the quarterfinals through qualifying in Vina del Mar. The 21-year old, who was born in New York, cracked the top 200 for the first time and has 57 ranking points that aren't going anywhere for the next 12 months.
10. Italy- Fabio Fognini is among one of the hottest players on tour with his form right now. However, the rest of Italy hasn't been enjoying his level of success. Despite winning its first round of Davis Cup, there are only five other players in the top 200, and they don't combine for half as many points as Fognini.
11. Great Britain- Normally Great Britain's ranking is based solely on Andy Murray. This year though, he has some support from Daniel Smethurst, James Ward, and Daniel Evans, who reached the semifinals in Zagreb. Great Britain knocked off the United States in Davis Cup play and will face Italy next. The Brits still need Murray to perform if they want to finish in the top 10 in 2014. The second half of the season is where he is at his best.
12. Serbia- Last year's Davis Cup runner-up has gotten off to a brutal start in 2014. Serbia has already been eliminated from Davis Cup, Novak Djokovic failed to reach a major semifinal for the first time since 2010, and Viktor Troicki and Janko Tipsarevic haven't even stepped on the court yet. The bright spots for Serbia have come from the young players. Laslo Djere and Nikola Milojevic have made quick transitions from the junior tour onto the futures. Also, Dusan Lajovic and Pedja Krstin have both earned career-high rankings. If Djokovic, Troicki, and Tipsarevic all return to form Serbia could get back to being a top-two nation.
13. Russia- Mikhail Youzhny has struggled so far in 2014. Russia can only go up.
14. Croatia- Marin Cilic has been incredible this year, but the rest of the country hasn't helped him. Ivan Dodig's only wins have come against fellow Croat Ivo Karlovic, who struggled after upsetting Tomas Berdych. Cilic and Karlovic each reached the finals of their respective tournaments this week, so they will rise in the rankings later this year.
15. Columbia- Alejandro Gonzalez earned a career-best 74 after reaching the final of his first challenger of the year. Along with Alejandro Falla and Santiago Giraldo, the Colombians are always dangerous from Miami to Roland Garros.
16. Canada- It has been a slow start for the Canadians, and Milos Raonic isn't playing in February this year, which is when he is normally at his best. Vasek Pospisil has established himself as a mainstay on tour. He will be key if Canada continues to rise.
17. Chinese Taipei- After Switzerland, Taiwan has had the most surprising start to the 2014 season. Yen-Hsun Lu is ranked 28 in the year-to-date rankings thanks an incredible week in Auckland. He also did very well this week in Memphis. At 30 years-old, he is playing the best tennis of his career.
18. Bulgaria- Grigor Dimitrov is the 10th ranked player in the world in the Race to London. BabyFed reached the quarterfinals in Australia erasing some doubt that he couldn't win best-of-5 matches.
19. Slovenia- 23-year old Blaz Rola came up through qualifying to reach the second round of the Australian Open, earning a career-high ranking of 152. Along with Blaz Kavcic and Aljaz Bedene, those three carry Slovenia's ranking.
20. Ukraine- Considering the brutal start to the season for Alexander Dolgopolov, Ukraine in the top 20 seems surprising. However, there is no other team left that has three players with at least 70 ranking points so far in 2014. Sergiy Stakhovsky reached the semifinals in Sydney as a qualifier.
21. Finland
22. India
23. Brazil
24. Netherlands
25. Kazakhstan
26. Slovakia
27. South Africa
28. Uzbekistan
29. Poland
30. Romania
31. Israel
32. Bosnia & Herzegovina
33. Hungary
34. Latvia
35. Lithuania
36. Austria
37. Tunisia
38. Belarus
39. Portugal
40. Venezuela
Showing posts with label Wawrinka. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Wawrinka. Show all posts
Sunday, February 16, 2014
Tuesday, January 21, 2014
It's Fognini's Fault
The most popular scapegoat has been Djokovic's new head coach, Boris Becker for his inexplicable standing during the match. Another popular one has been Jim Courier for asking Djokovic to do another impression. There have been plenty of other outrageous accusations for who is to blame for Novak's first loss at a slam to a player ranked lower than four since 2010. But let's identify the real culprit for who he is - Fabio Fognini.
Let's look at the evidence:
In 2011, Djokovic started the season riding a 43-match winning streak. Djokovic reached the Roland Garros quarterfinals where he was one win away from tying John McEnroe's record for best winning streak to start a season. The opponent awaiting him was none other than Fabio Fognini, who limped his way through an epic victory over Albert Montanes.
After stealing the quarterfinal spot away from Montanes, Fognini elected to not even use it and withdrew from the tournament. Because of the withdrawal, Djokovic went three days without playing any tennis on a television. After three days of collecting rust, Djokovic had his 43-match winning streak snapped by Switzerland's Roger Federer.
Overall, in the first five tournaments in which Djokovic and Fognini played each other, Djokovic didn't win a single title. That includes 2010 Belgrade, where after defeating Fognini in straight sets, Djokovic went on to lose to 319th ranked Filip Krajinovic in the following round. Coincidence? Doubtful.Fast forward 32 months to the 2014 Australian Open. Now, Djokovic has a 27-match winning streak as he meets Fognini in the fourth round. While Fognini didn't withdraw officially this time, he withdrew mentally. Fognini won a total of five games and 55 points over the course of three pathetic sets. All the while, Fognini's antics distracted the three-time defending champion and broke his focus. The match took away Djokovic's mental edge.
As a result, Djokovic tried to serve and volley on match point down. The cost: another loss to a Swiss man with a one-handed backhand after Fognini failed to properly prepare Djokovic for an important grand slam match.
Verdict:
Fabio Fognini traitorously sabotaged Djokovic by refusing to give him a proper warm-up before his crucial match against the Stanimal. As a result, Fognini is the scapegoat.
Sunday, January 19, 2014
Return of the Big Four
At its peak in 2011, the Big Four of Novak Djokovic, Andy Murray, Rafael Nadal, and Roger Federer owned the ATP World Tour. In 2011, the four players combined to win all four slams, all nine 1000 events, the year-end Finals, along with eight other titles, and Nadal was part of the Davis Cup Champion team.
The four players didn't just win the events - they dominated them. Both finalists at all four slams were members of the Big Four. In fact, only three players ranked below four even reached the semifinals, and only four reached a final at a 1000 event. However, since Nadal lost to Lukas Rosol in the second round of Wimbledon in 2012, the members of the Big Four have not all been at their best at the same time.
After that loss, Nadal was out for seven months and didn't make his return until after the Australian Open. As soon as Nadal returned, Federer instantly began to struggle, starting with a loss in Rotterdam to Julien Benneteau. Federer's struggles continued all the way through to the US Open where he lost to Tommy Robredo.
After the US Open, Murray announced his season would end with back surgery, and Federer almost instantly began to improve. He reached the final in Basel, and semifinals of Bercy and the year-end Finals, beating Richard Gasquet and Juan Martin del Potro twice in the process.
Now, at the Australian Open, Murray is back from his injury, Nadal's knee issues seem to be a thing of the past, Djokovic is extrememly motivated, and Federer appears to be back to a high quality of tennis. So is the Big Four back?
From what we have seen at the Australian Open through one week, the answer would be a resounding yes! Not a single one of the four has so much as dropped set on their straight-forward paths to the second week. With Del Potro falling out of the tournament in the first round, it would be surprising if anyone outside the Big Four reaches a final, let alone win one.
However, there is still one major hurdle before I am ready to say that the Big Four is truly back, and that is Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. During 2011, it wouldn't be surprising to see all four reach the semifinals. However, that's impossible in Melbourne this year since Murray and Federer are both in the same quarter. So the best the Big Four can do is make sure that none of them lose to anybody outside the Big Four. Although Djokovic will face Stanislas Wawrinka and potentially Tomas Berdych or David Ferrer, Tsonga appears to be the biggest threat in this tournament to disrupt the Big Four's dominance.
So what is unofficially on the line tonight when Federer goes toe-to-toe with Tsonga is Federer's spot in the Big Four. Can the Big Four all dominate the sport at once the way they did in 2011? Or are Tsonga, Berdych, Del Potro, Wawrinka, and Ferrer too good to be second tier players?
The four players didn't just win the events - they dominated them. Both finalists at all four slams were members of the Big Four. In fact, only three players ranked below four even reached the semifinals, and only four reached a final at a 1000 event. However, since Nadal lost to Lukas Rosol in the second round of Wimbledon in 2012, the members of the Big Four have not all been at their best at the same time.
After the US Open, Murray announced his season would end with back surgery, and Federer almost instantly began to improve. He reached the final in Basel, and semifinals of Bercy and the year-end Finals, beating Richard Gasquet and Juan Martin del Potro twice in the process.
Now, at the Australian Open, Murray is back from his injury, Nadal's knee issues seem to be a thing of the past, Djokovic is extrememly motivated, and Federer appears to be back to a high quality of tennis. So is the Big Four back?
From what we have seen at the Australian Open through one week, the answer would be a resounding yes! Not a single one of the four has so much as dropped set on their straight-forward paths to the second week. With Del Potro falling out of the tournament in the first round, it would be surprising if anyone outside the Big Four reaches a final, let alone win one.
However, there is still one major hurdle before I am ready to say that the Big Four is truly back, and that is Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. During 2011, it wouldn't be surprising to see all four reach the semifinals. However, that's impossible in Melbourne this year since Murray and Federer are both in the same quarter. So the best the Big Four can do is make sure that none of them lose to anybody outside the Big Four. Although Djokovic will face Stanislas Wawrinka and potentially Tomas Berdych or David Ferrer, Tsonga appears to be the biggest threat in this tournament to disrupt the Big Four's dominance.
So what is unofficially on the line tonight when Federer goes toe-to-toe with Tsonga is Federer's spot in the Big Four. Can the Big Four all dominate the sport at once the way they did in 2011? Or are Tsonga, Berdych, Del Potro, Wawrinka, and Ferrer too good to be second tier players?
Wednesday, December 25, 2013
4 Most Overrated and Underrated Players going into 2014
It's always fun to discus who the most and underrated players in tennis are. And the unique thing about the conversation it is impossible to agree. If everyone thinks that a player is underrated, then they are overrating that player. For many people the definition of overrated and underrated vary. For this post, I defined overrated and underrated based on expectations for 2014. Players that are expected (by fans and analysts) to do too much are overrated, while players whose expectations are too low are underrated. With that, here are the four most overrated and underrated tennis players going into the 2014 tennis season.
Overrated
1. Stanislas Wawrinka- It is easy to overrate a guy who has his biggest results on the biggest stages in the game. The tennis world stopped during Wawrinka's incredible matches against Djokovic to see him play in two of the best matches of the year. However, when Wawrinka lost four-of-five matches to players with an average ranking of 92, nobody noticed. Wawrinka did have an incredible 2013 season, but staying in the top eight in the world for 2014 is far from a guarantee.
2. Jerzy Janowicz- Once again his ranking is balancing on one leg. If he doesn't have another huge result before Wimbledon, he could drop out of the top 40. Janowicz's incredible runs in Paris and Wimbledon have been the only times a lot of fans have gotten to see him (aside from his awesome tirade in Melbourne). Take away his two amazing results in the last 48 months and he wouldn't even be noteworthy. Consistency is the key to the top 10 and he lacks that severely. I expect him to improve in 2014, but the top 10 finish that many are predicting is very unlikely.
3. Andy Murray- Murray will always be overrated since he won Wimbledon, so I should probably just get used to it. However, the expectations for Murray in 2014 are just absurd. People don't realize just how bad of a 2013 season he had. Yes, he won Miami, Wimbledon and reached the final in Melbourne, but outside of those three tournaments, it was another poor season. Poor may be a harsh word for someone who finished the season ranked No. 4 in the world, but fans always want to put him as part of the Big Four and by Djokovic and Nadal's standards, it was a poor season. In 2014, Murray is going to lay an egg on clay, while fail to put together consecutive good results on hard courts. His longest winning streak in 2014 will be less than 15.
4. Grigor Dimitrov- BabyFed will likely crack the top 10 eventually, but not this year. His win over an injured Djokovic set the expectations unrealistically high for the Bulgarian. I want him to do well just like everyone else, but the results aren't going to come immediately. It's going to take time.
Underrated
1. Roger Federer- He is the greatest of all time, so he can't possibly be overrated, and he is quite underrated. One of the downsides of being the greatest of all time is that every match he plays is watched. He can't sneak an early round loss past anyone. Anytime he loses, there are headlines. Federer actually did have a decent 2013 season compared to what most people think, and there are a lot of reasons to think 2014 will be even better. Way too many people are predicting that Federer won't finish in the top 10 or won't win a title. He still is Roger Federer. He might not win a grand slam, but that doesn't mean he isn't good enough to qualify for London. There is no way BabyFed or his countryman Wawrinka will outperform him in 2014.
2. Gilles Simon- Simon is by far the most underrated player of our generation. His playing style doesn't excite most fans, but that doesn't mean it doesn't work. Simon has been in the top 20 since May of 2011, but he doesn't get a lot of attention for it. Simon is one of the smartest players on the court, but also one of the smartest when it comes to scheduling. Every season Simon picks the right tournaments to play to get the maximum amount of ranking points, which is why he will stay in the top 20 in 2014 even if he doesn't get the attention he deserves.
3. Sam Querrey- No doubt it was a disappointing year for the United States' No. 2 player. Dropping out of the top 40 for the second time since he broke through was not one of his goals for the season, but that doesn't mean he is doomed in 2014. A lot of pressure is off Querrey right now, because the expectations are so low. Querrey hasn't played a match since Beijing so it will be a long off season for him to get prepared. Expect a resurgent 2014 season for the American No. 2.
4. Ryan Harrison- This is probably a surprising player to see on the list. For so long, Harrison had been so overrated. Then his 2013 season proved once and for all that he will never meet the hype surrounding him. However, what this has done is put the expectations incredibly low for one of the most competitive players on tour. He still is just 21-years old and has a career-high ranking of 43. While I don't expect him to return to his career-high ranking, it won't be such a struggle to for Harrison to stay in the top 100. With how low expectations are for Harrison, he should have no problem surpassing them.
Overrated
1. Stanislas Wawrinka- It is easy to overrate a guy who has his biggest results on the biggest stages in the game. The tennis world stopped during Wawrinka's incredible matches against Djokovic to see him play in two of the best matches of the year. However, when Wawrinka lost four-of-five matches to players with an average ranking of 92, nobody noticed. Wawrinka did have an incredible 2013 season, but staying in the top eight in the world for 2014 is far from a guarantee.
2. Jerzy Janowicz- Once again his ranking is balancing on one leg. If he doesn't have another huge result before Wimbledon, he could drop out of the top 40. Janowicz's incredible runs in Paris and Wimbledon have been the only times a lot of fans have gotten to see him (aside from his awesome tirade in Melbourne). Take away his two amazing results in the last 48 months and he wouldn't even be noteworthy. Consistency is the key to the top 10 and he lacks that severely. I expect him to improve in 2014, but the top 10 finish that many are predicting is very unlikely.3. Andy Murray- Murray will always be overrated since he won Wimbledon, so I should probably just get used to it. However, the expectations for Murray in 2014 are just absurd. People don't realize just how bad of a 2013 season he had. Yes, he won Miami, Wimbledon and reached the final in Melbourne, but outside of those three tournaments, it was another poor season. Poor may be a harsh word for someone who finished the season ranked No. 4 in the world, but fans always want to put him as part of the Big Four and by Djokovic and Nadal's standards, it was a poor season. In 2014, Murray is going to lay an egg on clay, while fail to put together consecutive good results on hard courts. His longest winning streak in 2014 will be less than 15.
4. Grigor Dimitrov- BabyFed will likely crack the top 10 eventually, but not this year. His win over an injured Djokovic set the expectations unrealistically high for the Bulgarian. I want him to do well just like everyone else, but the results aren't going to come immediately. It's going to take time.
Underrated
1. Roger Federer- He is the greatest of all time, so he can't possibly be overrated, and he is quite underrated. One of the downsides of being the greatest of all time is that every match he plays is watched. He can't sneak an early round loss past anyone. Anytime he loses, there are headlines. Federer actually did have a decent 2013 season compared to what most people think, and there are a lot of reasons to think 2014 will be even better. Way too many people are predicting that Federer won't finish in the top 10 or won't win a title. He still is Roger Federer. He might not win a grand slam, but that doesn't mean he isn't good enough to qualify for London. There is no way BabyFed or his countryman Wawrinka will outperform him in 2014.
3. Sam Querrey- No doubt it was a disappointing year for the United States' No. 2 player. Dropping out of the top 40 for the second time since he broke through was not one of his goals for the season, but that doesn't mean he is doomed in 2014. A lot of pressure is off Querrey right now, because the expectations are so low. Querrey hasn't played a match since Beijing so it will be a long off season for him to get prepared. Expect a resurgent 2014 season for the American No. 2.
4. Ryan Harrison- This is probably a surprising player to see on the list. For so long, Harrison had been so overrated. Then his 2013 season proved once and for all that he will never meet the hype surrounding him. However, what this has done is put the expectations incredibly low for one of the most competitive players on tour. He still is just 21-years old and has a career-high ranking of 43. While I don't expect him to return to his career-high ranking, it won't be such a struggle to for Harrison to stay in the top 100. With how low expectations are for Harrison, he should have no problem surpassing them.
Thursday, December 19, 2013
Top 10 Predictions
In my last post, I predicted what the year-end rankings would be in 2014 for the top 100. However, I want to take a closer look at how the top 10 will break down. I was reading some forums on top 10 predictions for the end of next year. My list isn't too much different from those I read about, but as you get to five through 10, things change a little. This is my prediction for the top 10.
Rank Name Current Ranking
Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal - For the third time in four years, these two will be the top two. It will be a tight race to the end, but I am giving Djokovic a slight edge, because the majority of the season is played on his favorite surface, hard courts. In their rivalry, court surface doesn't seem to have much of an effect on the result, but outside of the head-to-head matchups, it's clear that Djokovic enjoys the hard courts much more than his rival. These two are going to dominate the sport in 2014. There are 14 tournaments that they both play in every year: 4 slams, 9 1000's, and the year-end finals. Of those 14 tournaments, these two won 12 of them in 2013. I am predicting that they will win at least 12 again in 2014. Also, of the 28 finalists in those tournaments, Nadal and Djokovic made up 16 of them. I am predicting that it will be more than 16 in 2014. I am also predicting that the pair will combine for at least 26,000 ranking points.
Andy Murray - Since Djokovic and Nadal will combine for so many points, Murray won't need to win much to take third. In 2013, David Ferrer only needed 5,800 to be No. 3 in the world. Although Murray will need even less than that most likely, I am predicting that he will earn more than 5,800 ranking points. However, he won't have 8,000 either, which is what he finished with in 2012. Murray is going to do well on the grass and hard courts, but collect next to no ranking points on the clay. If he gets to the final of more than one slam, it will have been a good season for Murray. It's still hard to know how he will recover from back surgery, but don't expect a Nadal-like comeback for the Brit in 2014.
Juan Martin Del Potro - Most people on the forums had the same top five as me, but at No. 4, there was a little deviation, even from the level-headed fans on the forums. Del Potro is capable of being great on all surfaces unlike Murray. However, the Argentine is notorious for slow starts. He has never reached the semifinals at the Australian Open and has failed to reach the second week five times. After that though, you can almost guarantee that he will reach the semifinals at each of the other three slams. He hasn't been in a slam final since he beat Roger Federer in 2009 at the US Open though. I am predicting that Del Potro will not reach a grand slam final, he will reach multiple slam semifinals, and he will fail to win a 1000.
Roger Federer - I just read an article that predicted that Federer would drop out of the top 10 and fail to win a title in 2014. The last time people were jumping off someone's bandwagon this fast was when Tiger Woods had his scandal. Tennis fans need to calm down when it comes to Roger Federer. His back problems are gone, he is sticking with his usual racket, any coaching issues that may have existed are gone, and he finished 2013 with some great results. All of these things are reasons to believe that Federer will have a fantastic season. I'm more worried that he will finish better than five than below. If it really does come down to Federer and Del Potro for the No. 4 spot, don't be surprised if Federer is the one who comes out on top. Despite his struggles in 2013, Federer still won two-of-three matches against Del Potro. For 2014, I am predicting that Federer wins multiple titles, and notches at least five wins against top 10 opponents.
Tomas Berdych - This is where things started getting a little crazy on the forums. Almost everyone had Berdych in the top 10, but his ranking was all over the place from No. 5 to No. 10. Seems like every year, Berdych has an early exit at one of the slams. Maybe this will finally be the year that he reaches the quarterfinals at all three tournaments. Even if he doesn't though, finishing top six shouldn't be hard. As I've mentioned before, Nadal and Djokovic will hog all of the points, so there won't be much leftover for the rest of the top ten. Berdych didn't earn any more than 360 points at any tournament last year and he still finished No. 7. All he has to do to finish No. 6 in 2014 is equal his performance from last year, which includes a first round exit at Roland Garros and second round exits at three of the 1000 events. I am predicting Berdych will reach the semifinals at multiple 1000 events, but not reach the final at any of them, and he will reach the US Open semifinals. He will also win three titles in one season for the first time in his career.
David Ferrer - I said he would do poorly in 2013, and I was wrong. However, I am saying he will not be a top five player again in 2014. He can't stay in the top five forever. After failing to win a match at the year-end finals, it's increasingly difficult to see Ferrer sticking around in the top five. There is no way he will be reaching a slam final ever again. Maybe he will reach one final of a 1000. However, he has always gotten a large chunk of his points from 250's and 500's. Those points will be tough to earn next year, since Nadal has almost an identical schedule for 2014. Ferrer might be able to steal a few easy 250's, but other than that he won't win any titles in 2014. For Ferrer, my predictions are that he will win less than one-fifth of his matches against top 10 players, he will not reach more than one final of the main 14 tournaments, and he will meet Nadal at least five times.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - I said that I will continue to edit my picks up until the first day of the Brisbane Open, and there is a good chance that I will chicken out on this prediction. After his incredible result at Roland Garros last year, he did next to nothing to convince me that he will even be a top 10 player this year. I predicted last year that every player who finished 2012 in the top eight would be in the top eight at the end of 2013. Tsonga was the only one that failed to make it true. Once again though, I am predicting that the top eight at the end of 2012 will be the top eight at the end of this season. To be a top 10 player demands consistency. Tsonga has done that. Despite injuries throughout the second half of 2013, he still finished in the top 10. He hasn't spent a day outside the top 10 since August 2011. Although he might drop down early in the 2014 season, he doesn't have much to defend in the second half, so I won't be pressing the panic button if he drops as low as 12 or 13. For Tsonga, I am predicting that he will make the semifinals in at least one of the slams and he will reach the quarterfinals in at least five of the 1000's.
Stanislas Wawrinka - Putting my trust in Wawrinka has been hard for me. After I correctly predicted that he would reach the 2011 Australian Open quarterfinals, he was my go-to man for the rest of 2011. He let me down almost every time for the rest of the 2011 season. People on the forums are much more confident in Wawrinka than I am. Everyone had him in the top 10 and some had him as high as No. 5. This is the guy who just 12 months ago was the only player in the top 20 without a title. What sticks in the minds of fans though is his epic matches with Djokovic and his good showing at the year-end finals. Aside from those events though, the only thing Wawrinka did well was benefit from Grigor Dimitrov's win over Djokovic in Madrid to take an easy path to the final. Like the rest of his career, Wawrinka was still very streaky in 2013. If the draws don't open up for him in 2014 like they did in 2013, the top 10 will be tough to reach. I am predicting that Wawrinka will fail to reach the quarterfinals at minimally two of the slams and four of the 1000's. Also he will not win a title at any event bigger than a 250.
Milos Raonic - Raonic sort of slid into this position by process of elimination. We know the Canadian is good for a couple titles next year, so he is always a safe bet. You can also mark him down for a few top ten wins, and since he is already ranked 11, a top ten win usually results in 300 or 360 points depending on the tournament. With a guarantee of those points, the rest is all bonus and it should be enough to get him in the top 10. For Raonic, I am predicting he wins at least a quarter of his matches against top 10 opponents, also he will lead the tour in aces and win a tournament without dropping serve.
The Rest - Most of the other names being thrown around were Richard Gasquet, Kei Nishikori, or young guys that fans are hoping finally break through. I put Gasquet at 11 on my list and I was trying to convince myself that he belonged that high. He played to the best of his ability in 2013 and barely earned a spot in London. I don't think he can do as well in 2014 and finishing in the top 11 would be a great season. Nishikori is going to get injured in 2014. It is just way too risky to predict him finishing in the top 15 even. Grigor Dimitrov is one of the young guys expected to break through, but he still has a long way to go. I picked him to finish at 15, and that seemed generous. Jerzy Janowicz was on more people's lists than even Tsonga. The Pole lacks consistent results. Whether it be Wimbledon or Bercy, he relies on one big result to carry his ranking for the season. He reached the quarterfinals at just two of the big tournaments all season. It takes at least five or six to crack the top 10. I think he will continue to make progress, but I have him finishing the season at No. 13.
Rank Name Current Ranking
| 1 | Novak Djokovic | 2 |
| 2 | Rafael Nadal | 1 |
| 3 | Andy Murray | 4 |
| 4 | Juan Martin del Potro | 5 |
| 5 | Roger Federer | 6 |
| 6 | Tomas Berdych | 7 |
| 7 | David Ferrer | 3 |
| 8 | Jo-Wilfried Tsonga | 10 |
| 9 | Stanislas Wawrinka | 8 |
| 10 | Milos Raonic | 11 |
Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal - For the third time in four years, these two will be the top two. It will be a tight race to the end, but I am giving Djokovic a slight edge, because the majority of the season is played on his favorite surface, hard courts. In their rivalry, court surface doesn't seem to have much of an effect on the result, but outside of the head-to-head matchups, it's clear that Djokovic enjoys the hard courts much more than his rival. These two are going to dominate the sport in 2014. There are 14 tournaments that they both play in every year: 4 slams, 9 1000's, and the year-end finals. Of those 14 tournaments, these two won 12 of them in 2013. I am predicting that they will win at least 12 again in 2014. Also, of the 28 finalists in those tournaments, Nadal and Djokovic made up 16 of them. I am predicting that it will be more than 16 in 2014. I am also predicting that the pair will combine for at least 26,000 ranking points.
Juan Martin Del Potro - Most people on the forums had the same top five as me, but at No. 4, there was a little deviation, even from the level-headed fans on the forums. Del Potro is capable of being great on all surfaces unlike Murray. However, the Argentine is notorious for slow starts. He has never reached the semifinals at the Australian Open and has failed to reach the second week five times. After that though, you can almost guarantee that he will reach the semifinals at each of the other three slams. He hasn't been in a slam final since he beat Roger Federer in 2009 at the US Open though. I am predicting that Del Potro will not reach a grand slam final, he will reach multiple slam semifinals, and he will fail to win a 1000.
Roger Federer - I just read an article that predicted that Federer would drop out of the top 10 and fail to win a title in 2014. The last time people were jumping off someone's bandwagon this fast was when Tiger Woods had his scandal. Tennis fans need to calm down when it comes to Roger Federer. His back problems are gone, he is sticking with his usual racket, any coaching issues that may have existed are gone, and he finished 2013 with some great results. All of these things are reasons to believe that Federer will have a fantastic season. I'm more worried that he will finish better than five than below. If it really does come down to Federer and Del Potro for the No. 4 spot, don't be surprised if Federer is the one who comes out on top. Despite his struggles in 2013, Federer still won two-of-three matches against Del Potro. For 2014, I am predicting that Federer wins multiple titles, and notches at least five wins against top 10 opponents.
Tomas Berdych - This is where things started getting a little crazy on the forums. Almost everyone had Berdych in the top 10, but his ranking was all over the place from No. 5 to No. 10. Seems like every year, Berdych has an early exit at one of the slams. Maybe this will finally be the year that he reaches the quarterfinals at all three tournaments. Even if he doesn't though, finishing top six shouldn't be hard. As I've mentioned before, Nadal and Djokovic will hog all of the points, so there won't be much leftover for the rest of the top ten. Berdych didn't earn any more than 360 points at any tournament last year and he still finished No. 7. All he has to do to finish No. 6 in 2014 is equal his performance from last year, which includes a first round exit at Roland Garros and second round exits at three of the 1000 events. I am predicting Berdych will reach the semifinals at multiple 1000 events, but not reach the final at any of them, and he will reach the US Open semifinals. He will also win three titles in one season for the first time in his career.
David Ferrer - I said he would do poorly in 2013, and I was wrong. However, I am saying he will not be a top five player again in 2014. He can't stay in the top five forever. After failing to win a match at the year-end finals, it's increasingly difficult to see Ferrer sticking around in the top five. There is no way he will be reaching a slam final ever again. Maybe he will reach one final of a 1000. However, he has always gotten a large chunk of his points from 250's and 500's. Those points will be tough to earn next year, since Nadal has almost an identical schedule for 2014. Ferrer might be able to steal a few easy 250's, but other than that he won't win any titles in 2014. For Ferrer, my predictions are that he will win less than one-fifth of his matches against top 10 players, he will not reach more than one final of the main 14 tournaments, and he will meet Nadal at least five times.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - I said that I will continue to edit my picks up until the first day of the Brisbane Open, and there is a good chance that I will chicken out on this prediction. After his incredible result at Roland Garros last year, he did next to nothing to convince me that he will even be a top 10 player this year. I predicted last year that every player who finished 2012 in the top eight would be in the top eight at the end of 2013. Tsonga was the only one that failed to make it true. Once again though, I am predicting that the top eight at the end of 2012 will be the top eight at the end of this season. To be a top 10 player demands consistency. Tsonga has done that. Despite injuries throughout the second half of 2013, he still finished in the top 10. He hasn't spent a day outside the top 10 since August 2011. Although he might drop down early in the 2014 season, he doesn't have much to defend in the second half, so I won't be pressing the panic button if he drops as low as 12 or 13. For Tsonga, I am predicting that he will make the semifinals in at least one of the slams and he will reach the quarterfinals in at least five of the 1000's.
Stanislas Wawrinka - Putting my trust in Wawrinka has been hard for me. After I correctly predicted that he would reach the 2011 Australian Open quarterfinals, he was my go-to man for the rest of 2011. He let me down almost every time for the rest of the 2011 season. People on the forums are much more confident in Wawrinka than I am. Everyone had him in the top 10 and some had him as high as No. 5. This is the guy who just 12 months ago was the only player in the top 20 without a title. What sticks in the minds of fans though is his epic matches with Djokovic and his good showing at the year-end finals. Aside from those events though, the only thing Wawrinka did well was benefit from Grigor Dimitrov's win over Djokovic in Madrid to take an easy path to the final. Like the rest of his career, Wawrinka was still very streaky in 2013. If the draws don't open up for him in 2014 like they did in 2013, the top 10 will be tough to reach. I am predicting that Wawrinka will fail to reach the quarterfinals at minimally two of the slams and four of the 1000's. Also he will not win a title at any event bigger than a 250.
Milos Raonic - Raonic sort of slid into this position by process of elimination. We know the Canadian is good for a couple titles next year, so he is always a safe bet. You can also mark him down for a few top ten wins, and since he is already ranked 11, a top ten win usually results in 300 or 360 points depending on the tournament. With a guarantee of those points, the rest is all bonus and it should be enough to get him in the top 10. For Raonic, I am predicting he wins at least a quarter of his matches against top 10 opponents, also he will lead the tour in aces and win a tournament without dropping serve.
The Rest - Most of the other names being thrown around were Richard Gasquet, Kei Nishikori, or young guys that fans are hoping finally break through. I put Gasquet at 11 on my list and I was trying to convince myself that he belonged that high. He played to the best of his ability in 2013 and barely earned a spot in London. I don't think he can do as well in 2014 and finishing in the top 11 would be a great season. Nishikori is going to get injured in 2014. It is just way too risky to predict him finishing in the top 15 even. Grigor Dimitrov is one of the young guys expected to break through, but he still has a long way to go. I picked him to finish at 15, and that seemed generous. Jerzy Janowicz was on more people's lists than even Tsonga. The Pole lacks consistent results. Whether it be Wimbledon or Bercy, he relies on one big result to carry his ranking for the season. He reached the quarterfinals at just two of the big tournaments all season. It takes at least five or six to crack the top 10. I think he will continue to make progress, but I have him finishing the season at No. 13.
2014 Year-end Rankings Predictions
For the past few years, I have spent the tennis off-season predicting what will happen in the upcoming season. Since the start of the 2012 season, what I have done is predicted what the rankings will be of the top 100 at the end of the season. On my first try, I correctly predicted the 2012 year-end ranking of six players. However, I was wrong by 31.1 spots on average for each player. In predicting the year-end ranking for 2013, I had three perfect picks and missed by 31.56 spots on average. I just finished my predictions for the 2014 year-end rankings. However I will be updating them to try to improve them up until the first match of the season in Brisbane. Let me know what you think of my predictions. Which names did I leave off the list? Who did I predict to do to well? Who am I underestimating? I want to hear your thoughts.
Rank Name Current Ranking
Notable missing players: Lleyton Hewitt, Radek Stepanek, Nicolas Mahut, Nikolay Davydenko, Albert Montanes, Filippo Volandri, Ivo Karlovic, Benjamin Becker, Victor Hanescu, Lukasz Kubot, Kenny De Schepper, Michael Russell, Go Soeda, Dustin Brown
 |
| Nadal and Djokovic have both finished in the top two for two of the past three years, and 2014 shouldn't be any different. |
Rank Name Current Ranking
| 1 | Novak Djokovic | 2 |
| 2 | Rafael Nadal | 1 |
| 3 | Andy Murray | 4 |
| 4 | Juan Martin del Potro | 5 |
| 5 | Roger Federer | 6 |
| 6 | Tomas Berdych | 7 |
| 7 | David Ferrer | 3 |
| 8 | Jo-Wilfried Tsonga | 10 |
| 9 | Stanislas Wawrinka | 8 |
| 10 | Milos Raonic | 11 |
| 11 | Richard Gasquet | 9 |
| 12 | Nicolas Almagro | 13 |
| 13 | Jerzy Janowicz | 21 |
| 14 | Marin Cilic | 37 |
| 15 | Grigor Dimitrov | 23 |
| 16 | John Isner | 14 |
| 17 | Kei Nishikori | 17 |
| 18 | Fabio Fognini | 16 |
| 19 | Kevin Anderson | 20 |
| 20 | Ernests Gulbis | 24 |
| 21 | Gilles Simon | 19 |
| 22 | Benoit Paire | 26 |
| 23 | Sam Querrey | 46 |
| 24 | Gael Monfils | 31 |
| 25 | Denis Istomin | 45 |
| 26 | Bernard Tomic | 51 |
| 27 | Tommy Haas | 12 |
| 28 | Jeremy Chardy | 34 |
| 29 | Mikhail Youzhny | 15 |
| 30 | Philipp Kohlschreiber | 22 |
| 31 | Daniel Brands | 54 |
| 32 | Janko Tipsarevic | 36 |
| 33 | Fernando Verdasco | 30 |
| 34 | Vasek Pospisil | 32 |
| 35 | Alexandr Dolgopolov | 57 |
| 36 | Marinko Matosevic | 61 |
| 37 | Frederico Delbonis | 55 |
| 38 | Santiago Giraldo | 69 |
| 39 | Tommy Robredo | 18 |
| 40 | Andreas Seppi | 25 |
| 41 | Dmitry Tursunov | 29 |
| 42 | Jurgen Melzer | 27 |
| 43 | Ivan Dodig | 33 |
| 44 | Marcel Granollers | 38 |
| 45 | Feliciano Lopez | 28 |
| 46 | Juan Monaco | 42 |
| 47 | Robin Haase | 43 |
| 48 | Joao Sousa | 49 |
| 49 | Roberto Bautsita Agut | 58 |
| 50 | Julien Benneteau | 35 |
| 51 | Jarkko Nieminen | 39 |
| 52 | Lukas Rosol | 47 |
| 53 | Ryan Harrison | 100 |
| 54 | Edouard Roger-Vasselin | 52 |
| 55 | Pablo Carreno Busta | 64 |
| 56 | Matthew Ebden | 68 |
| 57 | Lukas Lacko | 81 |
| 58 | Jiri Vesely | 85 |
| 59 | Jack Sock | 102 |
| 60 | Somdev Devvarman | 90 |
| 61 | Marcos Baghdatis | 87 |
| 62 | Bradley Klahn | 97 |
| 63 | Martin Klizan | 108 |
| 64 | Albert Ramos | 83 |
| 65 | Igor Sijsling | 70 |
| 66 | Leonardo Mayer | 94 |
| 67 | Thomaz Bellucci | 125 |
| 68 | Florian Mayer | 40 |
| 69 | Donald Young | 96 |
| 70 | Julian Reister | 86 |
| 71 | Pablo Andujar | 48 |
| 72 | Ricardas Berankis | 131 |
| 73 | Guillermo Garcia-Lopez | 62 |
| 74 | Yen-Hsun Lu | 65 |
| 75 | David Goffin | 110 |
| 76 | Mikhail Kukushkin | 67 |
| 77 | Grega Zemlja | 121 |
| 78 | Carlos Berlocq | 41 |
| 79 | Tobias Kamke | 74 |
| 80 | Adrian Mannarino | 59 |
| 81 | Michal Przysiezny | 66 |
| 82 | Denis Kudla | 114 |
| 83 | Dusan Lajovic | 116 |
| 84 | Aljaz Bedene | 95 |
| 85 | Tim Smyczek | 89 |
| 86 | Teymuraz Gabashvili | 76 |
| 87 | Steve Johnson | 156 |
| 88 | Daniel Gimeno-Traver | 77 |
| 89 | Nick Kyrgios | 182 |
| 90 | Andrey Golubev | 82 |
| 91 | Rhyne Williams | 130 |
| 92 | Alex Bogomolov Jr. | 88 |
| 93 | Guido Pella | 118 |
| 94 | Alejando Falla | 99 |
| 95 | Sergiy Stakhovsky | 98 |
| 96 | Horacio Zeballos | 56 |
| 97 | Alejando Gonzalez | 91 |
| 98 | Dominic Thiem | 139 |
| 99 | Viktor Troicki | 75 |
| 100 | Guillaume Rufin | 137 |
Notable missing players: Lleyton Hewitt, Radek Stepanek, Nicolas Mahut, Nikolay Davydenko, Albert Montanes, Filippo Volandri, Ivo Karlovic, Benjamin Becker, Victor Hanescu, Lukasz Kubot, Kenny De Schepper, Michael Russell, Go Soeda, Dustin Brown
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