Thursday, May 29, 2014

Myth vs. Math: Big Points

This is the fourth installment in a five-part series called Myth vs. Math. In this series, I am taking a look at five widely-accepted statements that tennis writers, analysts, fans, and commentators frequently make. I'm checking to see if these statements hold up against the numbers. The first three statements in this series were "big servers have a notable advantage in tiebreakers," "Novak Djokovic has the best defensive return in the game right now," and "Rafael Nadal tends to get tougher draws than Djokovic since making his return from injury." The fourth statement that is being put to the test is "The top players play the big points better than their opponents."

The Myth

One of the big mysteries in tennis over the last five years has been what has allowed the big four to dominate the game. Aside from their talent, how have they been able to produce their best tennis week after week? The general agreement is that the top players handle the big moments better, and many take it as far as to say that they play the big points better.

On the surface, it is a statement that makes sense. The Big Four don't win every single point they play, but they always find a way to win. So it's easy to conclude that they play their best when it really matters.

Take this as an example: In 2014, Rafael Nadal, the No. 1 player in the world, has won 55% of all points he has played. However, that is only 9% better than the No. 100 player in the Year-to-date Rankings, Bradley Klahn. So if only nine percent separates No. 100 from No. 1, there must be something more to Nadal's success than just being more talented than his opponents.

To test the claim, I am going to use Novak Djokovic, the best tennis player in the world since the start of 2011, and see how well he does in the big situations in the 2014 season. More specifically, I want to see if he is able to raise his level on the points that determine the outcome of a service or return game.

The Math

The first way I will check this is to look at how Djokovic performs on break points, which are generally considered the most important points in a match before a tiebreaker. Starting with his serve, Djokovic has won 70% of all service points he has played. However, on break points, his percentage drops down to 59%, meaning that his level drops on the big points on his serve.

That is normal to some degree. 13 of the top 20 in the YTD Rankings have do worse when saving break points than on normal service points. However, Djokovic's 11% is the largest of any player in the top 20. However, when given the opportunity to break, the same isn't true. All but four players in the top 20 win a higher percentage of break points than normal return points, which makes sense. If a player is returning well enough to earn a break point, they will likely convert it. Likewise, if a player is serving poor enough to be facing break point, then they are less likely to save it.

But even on return, "the best returner in the sport," does not raise his level when he has the chance to break. Djokovic's winning percentage on break points is identical to his winning percentage on any return point. So on both serve and return, Djokovic's level drops on the biggest points.

The second way I check how Djokovic's level fluctuates on the big points is to compare his expected  games won to his actual number of games won. How to define "expected games won" is where this gets a little tricky. We know that Djokovic has won 70% of all points on his serve in 2014. Therefore, if we pick a random service point that Djokovic played in 2014, there is a 70% chance that we will pick out a point that he won.

Now lets say that if we pick out a winning point, then in an imaginary service game, we are winning 15-0. However, if we pick a losing point, then we are down 0-15. If we keep randomly picking points until someone has won this imaginary game, what is the probability that we will win the game? The answer is the "expected games won." So the EGW metric, essentially measures the percentage of games a player will win if he plays every point at their standard level.

So since Djokovic's standard level is to win 70% of points on serve, his EGW as server is  90.1%. Here is the probability breaks down:
Hold at love: 24.01%
Hold at 15: 28.812%
Hold at 30: 21.609%
Go to deuce: 18.522%
Hold after deuce: 84.483%
Break after deuce: 15.517%
Break with no deuce: 7.047%
Just for fun: The probability of going to reaching deuce No. 9 is 0.02%

When we look at actual games won, Djokovic is at just 88%, so for a third time, the numbers have shown that he does not perform as well in the big points. Same is true on his return. He has an EGW of 33% as a returner, but has only won 32% of return games this year. But how accurate is EGW? If the only stat you have on a player is their percentage of points won, using the formula for EGW is actually the best way to find out approximately how many games they have won. If the sample size is large enough, the two numbers will be almost identical. However, its when looking at smaller sample sizes where you see the variance for each player.

So if we look at individual matches, we can get a closer look at how Djokovic plays the big points. Let's start with Djokovic's loss to Stan Wawrinka in Melbourne. In that match, Djokovic won 68% of service points, so his EGW on serve was 87.6%. That means that in 26 service games against Wawrinka, Djokovic should have held 22.77 times. However, he only held 21 times. On return, he won 37% of points, so his EGW on return was 20.6%. That means he should have broken Wawrinka 5.16 times in 25 tries, but he only broke him four times. In total, Djokovic won 2.93 less games than he should have, which also means Wawrinka won 2.93 more games than he should have. In a match that finishes 9-7 in the fifth set, a 2.93-game swing make a big difference.

For the second match, let's go with Djokovic's win over Nadal in Rome.
Service points won: 65%
Service EGW: 83.4% (11.68)
Service games won: 10
Return points won: 48%
Return EGW: 46% (6.44)
Return games won: 6
Total difference: 2.12 games less than expected

In both of Djokovic's most competitive matches in 2014, he played significantly worse than the numbers expect him to, meaning that Djokovic's level dropped considerably on the big points in two of the biggest matches he has played this year. So not only has Djokovic played poorly in the big points, he is doing it in the big matches.

There is one stat Djokovic has that supports the claim that the top players perform well in the big moments. In tiebreakers this year, Djokovic has won 66.7%. However, Djokovic has only played in six tiebreakers in 29 matches this year, so his ability to win tiebreakers has little to do with his 26-3 record.

Conclusion
Djokovic's success has far more to do with his ability to avoid big points than his ability to win big points. The Serb has played three times as many service games as he has faced break points. Meanwhile, has created 238 break opportunities in 319 return games in 2014. With that many chances to break, he can afford to have a lower conversion rate. So the claim that the top players separate themselves with how they play in the big moments does not hold true, at least for Djokovic.

Also, the fact that Djokovic's actual games won has been significantly lower than his expected games won is good news for his fans. Over the course of his career, Djokovic tends to be about less than a percent below expected on serve and between one and two percent better on return. 

He has been a close second best player on tour in 2014, despite doing so poorly on the big points. It's highly unlikely that the difference between his EGW and actual games won will continue to be so high, so his performances can only get better as we continue in 2014.

Also, if Djokovic can defeat Nadal on the clay in Rome while playing 2.12 games below expected, his chances to beat Nadal in a potential Roland Garros final are very good. Several times, Djokovic lost games where he led 30-0 or 40-0 in Rome. If he can eliminate those, his chances to beat Nadal will be good.

*If you want more information on expected games won or want to discuss anything else in my Myth vs. Math pieces, you can e-mail me at jpine11@apu.edu.

Monday, May 19, 2014

5/19/14 Country Power Rankings

These are the rankings of how each country has done since the end of the 2013 tennis season. Rankings are based mainly on the year-to-date ranking of the individuals from that country.

1. Spain - It just isn't even close. Spain is clearly the best tennis country in the world right now. Spain already has 15 players with at least 250 ranking points accumulated this year. The next highest countries are France with 10, while Germany has eight and the United States has six. Those are the only three countries that are worth comparing in that department, but none of them have a single player that has accumulated even 1000 ranking points this year. Meanwhile Rafael Nadal and David Ferrer alone combine for more points than all of the eight Germans plus the six Americans.

2. Switzerland - When the last rankings came out, Roger Federer and Stan Wawrinka had just met in the Monte Carlo final, which was a huge boost to put the country in the No. 2 spot. However, since then, the two Swiss men have collected a mere 110 more ranking points with disappointing results in both Madrid and Rome. Switzerland still being at No. 2 says more about the struggles for France than the success of Switzerland.

3. France - This has not been a good year for France. In Madrid, the country tallied just three wins, and one of them was Gilles Simon advancing from a retirement over countryman Benoit Paire after two games. France ended the 2013 season with two top 10 players and Simon not far behind, but Jo-Wilfried Tsonga ranks the highest in the Race Rankings at 15 and Gael Monfils is the only other Frenchman in the top 25.

4. Serbia - Last month, Serbia had four players in the top 150 of the Race Rankings. However, this week, Dusan Lajovic is the only player joining Novak Djokovic in the top 150 and he only has 16 more ranking points now than a week ago. However, Djokovic's title in Rome has kept Serbia at No. 4 in the rankings. After Djokovic won his fifth 1000 title in his last six attempts, the Serb donated all of his prize money to his home country, which is currently battling floods.

5. Czech Republic - Lukas Rosol upset Fabio Fognini in Rome, while Tomas Berdych fell to Grigor Dimitrov one week after beating him in Madrid. Rosol went on to lose in the next round and Radek Stepanek fell to Djokovic in the second round of Rome. But the scattered victories for the Czech Republic was enough to move the country ahead of the United States for No. 5 in the rankings.

6. Germany - Tommy Haas and Philipp Kohlschreiber have each come out of their slumps to play incredible tennis. However, injuries are still plaguing Germany. Right after knocking out Wawrinka in Rome, Haas was forced to retire against Dimitrov with a shoulder injury. And Florian Mayer, who hasn't played since withdrawing in Miami, has announced he will not play in the second grand slam of the year.

7. United States - It must be the clay season, because the United States has dropped two spots in one month. The clay court struggles in the United States are continuing. Since the last rankings (4/21/14), the United States has won a grand total of two tour-level matches, and both were by John Isner in Madrid. A group of Americans are in action in Nice this week, so they have a chance to turn around the trend, but the United States likely won't get back into the top five until the tour returns to North America.

8. Japan - From the start of Barcelona to late in the second set of the Madrid final, the hottest tennis player in the world was Japan's Kei Nishikori. However, an injury sidelined his incredible run of success and forced him to pull out of Rome to head back to Miami for treatment. Still, Nishikori became the first Japanese tennis player in the top 10, which has moved the country up three spots in one month.

9. Italy - This is supposed to be the time of year where Italy moves up in the rankings. Instead the Italians had one of their poorest showings at their home tournament in recent memory. Italy is holding onto a slight lead over the injury-laden Argentina. Fabio Fognini missed his golden opportunity to reach the top 10 for the first time. If he and Andreas Seppi can't get out of their slump soon, the country might drop out of the top 10.

10. Argentina - Carlos Berlocq won his second career title just a few weeks ago, while Juan Martin del Potro remains sidelined with a wrist injury. Frederico Delbonis reached the semifinal in Casablanca and leads Argentinians in the YTD Rankings. The depth of the South American country is what is keeping them in the top 10, while they await the return of Del Potro.

11. Croatia - Marin Cilic is part of a group of young players that have really outperformed their expectations so far in 2014. Cilic entered the year ranked 37, but is currently ranked No. 11 in the Race Rankings. If he can make a run at a few big tournaments, he could suddenly be a real contender to play in the year-end finals.

12. Bulgaria - Grigor Dimitrov reached his first career semifinal at a Masters 1000, and now he is knocking on the door of the top 10. BabyFed is ranked No. 8 in the YTD Rankings with a comfortable lead over Andy Murray for now. He should have no problem reaching the top 10 by the end of the US Open.

13. Russia - Teymuraz Gabashvili has announced himself on the tour over the course of the last few months and is now the No. 1 Russian in the Race Rankings. He already is into the second round in Nice and has a great chance to finish the year as the No. 1 Russian.

14. Great Britain - For the first time in 2014, Andy Murray looked good in Rome, reaching the quarterfinals and giving Nadal all he could handle on clay. This has been a very disappointing season for the British No. 1 and his ranking will plummet after Wimbledon, but his result this week will give his fans hope again.

15. Ukraine - Ukraine has dropped three spots in the rankings since last month, but the inconsistency isn't surprising from a country whose No. 1 player is Alexandr Dogopolov.

16. Australia - Since Hewitt won a title to start the year, he hasn't earned more than 45 ranking points at any tournament, yet he still leads Australia in the YTD Rankings. That's how much the rest are struggling.

17. Colombia - Santiago Giraldo had an incredible week in Madrid, beating Tsonga and Murray to reach the quarterfinals, putting himself in the mix for a seed in Wimbledon, and keeping his country in the top 20.

18. Canada - Here is my piece on Milos Raonic. He is the only reason why Canada is still in the top 20.

19. Latvia - Ernests Gulbis has won eight of his last 11 matches with his losses coming to red-hot Nishikori and clay-specialist Ferrer. He recently reached a career-high ranking of 17.

20. Austria - The Melzer brothers are beginning to make an impact on the tennis world and Dominic Thiem upset Wawrinka in Madrid. Austria was 26 in the last rankings, making the largest leap into the top 20 of any country.

21. South Africa
22. Netherlands
23. Slovakia
24. Kazakhstan
25. Chinese Taipei
26. Slovenia
27. Uzbekistan
28. Brazil
29. Poland
30. Portugal
31. Luxembourg
32. Finland
33. Romania
34. Lithuania
35. Dominican Republic
36. Tunisia
37. Belgium
38. India
39. Bosnia and Herzegovina
40. Uruguay
41. Turkey
42. Israel
43. Hungary

Projected Wimbledon Seeds before Nice & Dusseldorf

The last three weeks, I have looked at what the projected Wimbledon seeds will be in the 2014 Championships. Here is how the projections have changed following play in Rome and the release of the draws in Nice and Dusseldorf.

Race to Wimbledon There are still a couple tournaments between now and Wimbledon, so for this first set of seedings, I took away all of the points each player has to defend in the upcoming tournaments before Wimbledon and added the grass-adjustment component of the Wimbledon seedings to see where each player stands right now. In other words, instead of the Race to London rankings this is the "Race to Wimbledon" seedings.
1. Novak Djokovic
2. Rafael Nadal
3. Andy Murray
4. Roger Federer
5. Stanislas Wawrinka
6. Juan Martin del Potro
7. Tomas Berdych
8. David Ferrer
9. Milos Raonic
10. Kei Nishikori
11. John Isner
12. Grigor Dimitrov
13. Richard Gasquet
14. Mikhail Youzhny
15. Jerzy Janowicz
16. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
17. Fabio Fognini
18. Tommy Haas
19. Ernests Gulbis
20. Fernando Verdasco
21. Alexandr Dolgopolov
22. Kevin Anderson
23. Nicolas Almagro
24. Tommy Robredo
25. Feliciano Lopez
26. Philipp Kohlschreiber
27. Marin Cilic
28. Nicolas Mahut
29. Andreas Seppi
30. Florian Mayer
31. Roberto Bautista Agut
32. Ivan Dodig

If Wimbledon Were Today For this next set of rankings, I added the points each player has to defend back onto their rankings, since the players who typically do well at those big clay tournaments and grass tune-ups will continue to do well there. This is essentially what the Wimbledon seeds would be if the seedings were done today.
1. Novak Djokovic
2. Rafael Nadal
3. Andy Murray
4. Roger Federer
5. Stanislas Wawrinka
6. David Ferrer
7. Juan Martin del Potro
8. Tomas Berdych
9. Milos Raonic
10. Kei Nishikori
11. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
12. John Isner
13. Richard Gasquet
14. Grigor Dimitrov
15. Mikhail Youzhny
16. Tommy Haas
17. Jerzy Janowicz
18. Fabio Fognini
19. Ernests Gulbis
20. Tommy Robredo
21. Fernando Verdasco
22. Kevin Anderson
23. Nicolas Almagro
24. Alexandr Dolgopolov
25. Feliciano Lopez
26. Marin Cilic
27. Philipp Kohlschreiber
28. Gael Monfils
29. Andreas Seppi
30. Florian Mayer
31. Roberto Bautista Agut
32. Gilles Simon

My Picks What the real seeds will be will be somewhere in between these two rankings, so I decided to come up with a logical guess at how well each player will do in the upcoming weeks and see what the seedings are for that. So these are my predictions for the 2014 Wimbledon Men's Singles seeds.

1. Novak Djokovic - Clinched No. 1 seed
2. Rafael Nadal - Clinched No. 2 seed
3. Andy Murray - Looked better in Rome than he has all year
4. Roger Federer - Dropped from No. 3 last week
5. Stanislas Wawrinka - Has to win Roland Garros to crack top four seeds
6. David Ferrer - Has plenty to defend in Paris
7. Tomas Berdych - He will be a contender at SW19 this year
8. Milos Raonic - Here is more on the battle for No. 8 seed
9. Kei Nishikori - Hopefully he will be ready for Roland Garros
10. John Isner - Top seed in Nice
11. Grigor Dimitrov - Closing in on first top 10 ranking
12. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - Upset by Raonic in Rome
13. Mikhail Youzhny - Pushed Nadal to the edge in Rome
14. Richard Gasquet - Hasn't played since March
15. Fabio Fognini - Missed a golden opportunity to reach top 10
16. Jerzy Janowicz - Probably the coldest player on tour
17. Tommy Haas - Upset Wawrinka, but was forced to retire next round
18. Ernests Gulbis - Needs to do well in Paris to get top 16 seed
19. Fernando Verdasco - Upset by Golubev in Rome
20. Alexandr Dolgopolov - Couldn't take advantage of great draw in Rome
21. Nicolas Almagro - Should do well in Paris
22. Tommy Robredo - A lot to defend in Paris
23. Kevin Anderson - Lost in two tiebreak sets to Tsonga in Rome
24. Feliciano Lopez - Lost in first round in Rome to Granollers
25. Marin Cilic - Another victim in Melzer's comeback trail
26. Andreas Seppi - On a three-match losing streak
27. Philipp Kohlschreiber - Has all but clinched a seed
28. Gael Monfils - Missed Madrid and Rome, but is back for Nice
29. Roberto Bautista Agut - First round loss in Rome after arriving late
30. Nicolas Mahut - Grass is by far his best surface; dangerous if unseeded
31. Ivan Dodig - Should have no issue earning a seed
32. Gilles Simon - I have him and Santiago Giraldo each reaching the round of 32 in Paris, which would give Simon the No. 32 seed by just .25 points, leading 1250.75 to 1250.50

*Richard Gasquet is questionable for Wimbledon, since he hasn't played since March. If he withdraws, I have Santiago Giraldo and Dmitry Tursunov as next in line for seeds. I already assumed Juan Martin del Potro and Florian Mayer won't be ready for Wimbledon, since they withdrew from Roland Garros already. If anyone else withdraws, Vasek Pospisil would be next in line.

Most importantly in all of this is the return of the Big Four. Probably for the last time in tennis history, Andy Murray, Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, and Novak Djokovic will occupy the top four seeds at a grand slam tournament (or any tournament). Stanislas Wawrinka is the only player who has a mathmatical chance to break up the top four, and he would have to win the title with a bad back to do so. Wimbledon is going to be fun and historic this year. Let's enjoy it!

Sunday, May 18, 2014

Raonic Solidifies Top 10 Ranking

Canadian Milos Raonic had the best result of his young tennis career at any non-hard court event this week, reaching the semifinals in Rome. However, the great result means much more than just a new career-high ranking for the 23-year old - it comes with a golden opportunity for to solidify himself in the top 10 of the sport. By reaching the semifinals in Rome, Raonic clinched the No. 8 seed at Roland Garros and likely in Wimbledon as well.

Since Juan Martin del Potro is off the tour with a wrist injury for the foreseeable future, the No. 8 seed at the next two slams was up for grabs. At the start of the week, Kei Nishikori appeared to have the No. 8 seed locked up. However, an injury caused him to lose to Rafael Nadal in Madrid and pull out of Rome. Then with a semifinal appearance, after having never won a single match in Rome, Raonic swiped the No. 9 ranking from Nishikori and the No. 8 seed in Paris.

Although Raonic is lacking much help from Wimbledon's seeding formula, he only has 90 points to defend in Paris this year, compared to 180 for Nishikori, meaning Raonic has a great chance to be the No. 8 seed at SW19 too. But how important is the No. 8 seed really?

Well, in grand slam events in his career, the Canadian has reached the second week four times, but has never reached the quarterfinals. In those four losses in the round of 16, the average ranking of Raonic's opponents (Ferrer, Murray, Federer, & Gasquet) was 5.5 and he won a total of three sets off them. With a top eight seeding, if Raonic reaches the round of 16 now, he is guaranteed to face a lower-seeded player in that match.

Even though they are not on his preferred surface, these next two slams are still great opportunities for Raonic to reach his first career grand slam quarterfinal if he can dodge any early-round upsets. A quarterfinal appearance would be a great chunk of points to make Raonic a mainstay in the top 10.

After Wimbledon, Raonic has 600 points to defend at his home tournament, so good results at the next two slams are even more crucial to maintain his ranking. Raonic is currently ranked No. 14 in the Race to London rankings.

Every current member of the top eight right now has been at the top of the game for at least five years now with Del Potro being the most recent player to burst onto the scene back in 2009. Although Stanislas Wawrinka has achieved a new level of success this season, Raonic can be the first player in five years to break into this elite eight. It all starts with getting a big result on the clay of Rome.

Friday, May 16, 2014

World No. 1 Scenarios

The top tennis ranking in the world was on the line momentarily in Madrid until Novak Djokovic was forced to pull out with a wrist injury. The Serb has been chasing Rafael Nadal for the top ranking ever since Tomas Berdych retired against Nadal in Beijing 2013. With the start of Roland Garros just nine days away, Djokovic has a chance to return to No. 1 in the world for a third time in his career. However, several things have to go right for Djokovic if he is to be the world No. 1 at the end of the French Open. And what transpires in Rome tomorrow has implications on what Djokovic needs to do in Paris.

Both players have already dodged early exits in Rome to help strengthen their chances of reaching or retaining the No. 1 ranking. After benefiting from an injury to Kei Nishikori, Nadal won three more matches in a row in which he needed three sets, doing so to Gilles Simon, Mikhail Youzhny, and Andy Murray, 1-6, 6-3, 7-5. Nadal then defeated Grigor Dimitrov in the semifinal. Djokovic, since returning from injury, cruised in his first round encounter with Radek Stepanek, but needed to go the distance to beat both Philipp Kohlschreiber, David Ferrer, and Milos Raonic to reach the fnal. Both players are playing in the Rome final tomorrow, so here is what each player has to do to be the world No. 1 on June 9, 2014.

If Nadal beats Djokovic in the Rome final, then...
Nadal would hold a 170-point lead over Djokovic going into Roland Garros when the points they are defending at Roland Garros are taken away. That means Djokovic would have to do 170 points better than Nadal in Paris.
-If Djokovic loses before the round of 16, Nadal will remain the world No. 1
-If Djokovic reaches the round of 16, Nadal would have to lose in the first round, which would create a tie for No. 1 in the world.
-If Djokovic goes past the round of 16, he would have to go just one round further than Nadal to become the world No. 1

If Djokovic beats Nadal in the Rome final, then...
Djokovic would hold a 630-point lead over Nadal going into Roland Garros when the points they are defending at Roland Garros are taken away. That means Nadal would have to do 630 points better than Djokovic in Paris.
-If Nadal loses before semifinals, Djokovic will become the world No. 1
-If Nadal reaches the semifinals, Djokovic would have to lose in the first three rounds for Nadal to remain the world No. 1
-If Nadal reaches the semifinals and Djokovic loses in the third round, it would create a tie for No. 1 in the world
-If Nadal reaches the final, Djokovic would have to lose before the semifinals for Nadal to remain the world No. 1
-If Nadal wins the title, he will remain world No. 1

Monday, May 12, 2014

Projected Wimbledon Seeds before Rome

The last two weeks, I have looked at what the projected Wimbledon seeds will be in the 2014 Championships. Here is how the projections have changed following play in Madrid and the release of the Rome draw.

Race to Wimbledon There are still several tournaments between now and Wimbledon, so for this first set of seedings, I took away all of the points each player has to defend in the upcoming tournaments before Wimbledon and added the grass-adjustment component of the Wimbledon seedings to see where each player stands right now. In other words, instead of the Race to London rankings this is the "Race to Wimbledon" seedings.

1. Novak Djokovic
2. Rafael Nadal
3. Andy Murray
4. Roger Federer
5. Stanislas Wawrinka
6. Juan Martin del Potro
7. Tomas Berdych
8. David Ferrer
9. Kei Nishikori
10. Milos Raonic
11. John Isner
12. Richard Gasquet
13. Jerzy Janowicz
14. Grigor Dimitrov
15. Fabio Fognini
16. Mikhail Youzhny
17. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
18. Ernests Gulbis
19. Alexandr Dolgopolov
20. Fernando Verdasco
21. Tommy Haas
22. Nicolas Almagro
23. Kevin Anderson
24. Tommy Robredo
25. Gael Monfils
26. Feliciano Lopez
27. Florian Mayer
28. Philipp Kohlschreiber
29. Roberto Bautista Agut
30. Andreas Seppi
31. Vasek Pospisil
32. Ivan Dodig

If Wimbledon Were Today For this next set of rankings, I added the points each player has to defend back onto their rankings, since the players who typically do well at those big clay tournaments and grass tune-ups will continue to do well there. This is essentially what the Wimbledon seeds would be if the seedings were done today.

1. Rafael Nadal
2. Novak Djokovic
3. Roger Federer
4. Andy Murray
5. Stanislas Wawinka
6. David Ferrer
7. Juan Martin del Potro
8. Tomas Berdych
9. Kei Nishikori
10. John Isner
11. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
12. Richard Gasquet
13. Milos Raonic
14. Jerzy Janowicz
15. Mikhail Youzhny
16. Grigor Dimitrov
17. Fabio Fognini
18. Tommy Haas
19. Ernests Gulbis
20. Tommy Robredo
21. Fernando Verdasco
22. Kevin Anderson
23. Alexandr Dolgopolov
24. Nicolas Almagro
25. Feliciano Lopez
26. Gael Monfils
27. Marin Cilic
28. Philipp Kohlschreiber
29. Andreas Seppi
30. Gilles Simon
31. Florian Mayer
32. Roberto Bautista Agut

My Picks What the real seeds will be will be somewhere in between these two rankings, so I decided to come up with a logical guess at how well each player will do in the upcoming weeks and see what the seedings are for that. So these are my predictions for the 2014 Wimbledon Men's Singles seeds.

1. Novak Djokovic - How big of an issue will the wrist be?
2. Rafael Nadal - Going for another Madrid-Rome double
3. Roger Federer - Twins won't stop him from being a top seed
4. Andy Murray - Just needs a couple wins to clinch a top four seed
5. Stanislas Wawrinka - Didn't take advantage of Djokovic withdrawal
6. Tomas Berdych - Can he beat Dimitrov twice in two weeks?
7. David Ferrer - Tough draw in Rome
8. Kei Nishikori - Has stolen the No. 8 seed out of nowhere
9. Milos Raonic - Very much in the runner for the eight-seed
10. John Isner - It's a three-man race. Loss to Melzer hurts him
11. Grigor Dimitrov - Should get another crack at Berdych in Rome
12. Richard Gasquet - Forced to miss Madrid and Rome
13. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - Needs to get out of this slump
14. Fabio Fognini - This has been a disappointing clay swing
15. Jerzy Janowicz - Is already out of Rome
16. Mikhail Youzhny - Maintains lead for 16-seed
17. Ernests Gulbis - The grass adjustment will hurt his seeding
18. Alexandr Dolgopolov - He can't get a decent draw right now
19. Fernando Verdasco - Will play a qualifier and Youzhny in Rome
20. Tommy Haas - Very tough first round against Seppi
21. Tommy Robredo - Should face Djokovic in round of 16 in Rome
22. Nicolas Almagro - Is not playing in Rome
23. Kevin Anderson - Not his favorite time of year
24. Andreas Seppi - Rome is just around the corner
25. Roberto Bautista Agut - Another surprise semifinalist in Madrid
26. Marin Cilic - He could very easily be unseeded
27. Philipp Kohlschreiber - Will face Robredo next in Rome
28. Gael Monfils - Forced to miss Madrid and Rome
29. Feliciano Lopez- Already ousted from Rome
30. Florian Mayer - Forced to miss Madrid and Rome
31. Ivan Dodig - Sitting on the border for one of the last seeds
32. Santiago Giraldo - Qualifying for a Masters 1000 is about as hard as reaching the semifinals at a 250 event, but Giraldo did it in Madrid and then continued to reach the quarterfinals with wins over Hewitt, Tsonga, and Murray. Right after that, he has already qualified for Rome. He and Bautista Agut weren't even on my radar for a seed at Wimbledon just a week ago, but now I would be surprised if both of them don't earn a seed. If someone is going to steal a seed, Dodig is the most likely victim. Tursunov, Mahut, and Granollers are all within reach of taking a seed, but they will have to play well in Rome and Roland Garros.

The Race for the No. 8 seed is the most interesting part right now. The No. 8 seed is so crucial, because it guarantees that the player will not face a higher-seeded opponent before the quarterfinals. Whereas a No. 9 seed would have to pull off an upset to reach the quarterfinals.

It's a three-man race between Nishikori, Raonic and Isner. In my projection for what the ranking points will be for the Wimbledon seeds, I have the three only separated by 39 points. Nishikori's back injury will hurt his chances since he had to skip Rome and is questionable for Roland Garros. Meanwhile Raonic and Isner both struggle on clay, so it will be very difficult for them to gain a lot of points in Paris. None of these guys are going to rack up a ton of points before Wimbledon seeds are announced, so every win will make a big difference in their chances for the No. 8 seed.

Sunday, May 4, 2014

Projected Wimbledon Seeds (Updated)

Last week, I looked at what the projected Wimbledon seeds will be in the 2014 Championships. Here is how the projections have changed following play in Munich, Oeiras, and the release of the Madrid draw.

Race to Wimbledon There are still several tournaments between now and Wimbledon, so for this first set of seedings, I took away all of the points each player has to defend in the upcoming tournaments before Wimbledon and added the grass-adjustment component of the Wimbledon seedings to see where each player stands right now. In other words, instead of the Race to London rankings this is the "Race to Wimbledon" seedings.

1. Novak Djokovic
2. Rafael Nadal
3. Andy Murray
4. Roger Federer
5. Stanislas Wawrinka
6. Juan Martin del Potro
7. Tomas Berdych
8. David Ferrer
9. John Isner
10. Milos Raonic
11. Richard Gasquet
12. Kei Nishikori
13. Jerzy Janowicz
14. Fabio Fognini
15. Grigor Dimitrov
16. Mikhail Youzhny
17. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
18. Ernests Gulbis
19. Tommy Haas
20. Alexandr Dolgopolov
21. Fernando Verdasco
22. Nicolas Almagro
23. Tommy Robredo
24. Kevin Anderson
25. Gael Monfils
26. Florian Mayer
27. Philipp Kohlschreiber
28. Marin Cilic
29. Andreas Seppi
30. Dmitri Tursunov
31. Ivan Dodig
32. Feliciano Lopez

If Wimbledon Were Today For this next set of rankings, I added the points each player has to defend back onto their rankings, since the players who typically do well at those big clay tournaments and grass tune-ups will continue to do well there. This is essentially what the Wimbledon seeds would be if the seedings were done today.

1. Rafael Nadal
2. Novak Djokovic
3. Roger Federer
4. Andy Murray
5. Stanislas Wawinka
6. David Ferrer
7. Juan Martin del Potro
8. Tomas Berdych
9. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
10. John Isner
11. Richard Gasquet
12. Milos Raonic
13. Kei Nishikori
14. Jerzy Janowicz
15. Mikhail Youzhny
16. Grigor Dimitrov
17. Tommy Haas
18. Fabio Fognini
19. Tommy Robredo
20. Fernando Verdasco
21. Kevin Anderson
22. Ernests Gulbis
23. Nicolas Almagro
24. Alexandr Dolgopolov
25. Gael Monfils
26. Philipp Kohlschreiber
27. Marin Cilic
28. Feliciano Lopez
29. Gilles Simon
30. Florian Mayer
31. Andreas Seppi
32. Nicolas Mahut

My Picks What the real seeds will be will be somewhere in between these two rankings, so I decided to come up with a logical guess at how well each player will do in the upcoming weeks and see what the seedings are for that. So these are my predictions for the 2014 Wimbledon Men's Singles seeds.

1. Novak Djokovic - Withdrew from Madrid
2. Rafael Nadal - Easy draw in Madrid makes this somewhat interesting
3. Roger Federer - Toughest draw in Madrid, but should reach semifinals
4. Andy Murray - Might not even get past Almagro in Madrid
5. Stanislas Wawrinka - Could benefit from Djokovic withdrawal
6. Tomas Berdych - Is it an upset for Berdych if it happens in a final?
7. David Ferrer - One of the favorites to win Madrid now
8. John Isner - Leading a tight race for the No. 8 seed
9. Richard Gasquet - Forced to miss Madrid
10. Kei Nishikori - Straight-forward path to Madrid quarters
11. Fabio Fognini - Retired a week before and was upset yesterday
12. Milos Raonic - Not much seperates him and Isner; that's how tight this is
13. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - Tough draw in Madrid, but should reach quarters
14. Grigor Dimitrov - He is capable of beating anybody on his day
15. Jerzy Janowicz - Should be a first round exit in Madrid
16. Mikhail Youzhny - Leads race for No.16 seed
17. Ernests Gulbis - Needs to reach quarters to have chance at No.16 seed
18. Tommy Haas - One of Klizan's many victims in Munich
19. Alexandr Dolgopolov - His first three matches in Madrid will be fun
20. Fernando Verdasco - Has played well in Madrid the last two years
21. Nicolas Almagro - These next four weeks are crucial for his ranking
22. Tommy Robredo - Already lost to Bautista Agut in Madrid
23. Kevin Anderson - Not expecting Anderson to move up in rankings now
24. Gael Monfils - Forced to miss Madrid
25. Marin Cilic - Will definitely benefit from Djokovic's absense
26. Andreas Seppi - Rome is just around the corner
27. Philipp Kohlschreiber - His early exit in Munich is worrisome
28. Florian Mayer - Forced to miss Madrid
29. Feliciano Lopez- Tough first round match in Madrid
30. Ivan Dodig - Sitting on the border for one of the last seeds
31. Dmitri Tursunov - If he is healthy enough to play, he will be seeded
32. Marcel Granollers - I dropped Pospisil out of top 32 since he hasn't won since he withdrew from the Australian Open, so Granollers slid into the next spot. Mahut, Pospisil, and Simon are right on the edge of getting a seed if they catch fire or someone other than del Potro withdraws from Wimbledon.