Monday, June 1, 2015

2015 Projected Wimbledon Seeds

We are just a week away from the Wimbledon seeds being announced. After the tournaments at Queen's Club and Halle this week, the Wimbledon seeds will be set. This is what the Wimbledon seeds are as of now. The players in bold are the ones still in action this week with a chance to improve their point total.

*The first three seeds have all been clinched. Almost everything else is still in the air.

1. Novak Djokovic 16745
2. Roger Federer 10733
3. Andy Murray 8990
4. Stan Wawrinka 6263
5. Kei Nishikori 6087
6. Tomas Berdych 5590
7. Milos Raonic 5374
8. David Ferrer 4805
9. Marin Cilic 4124
10. Rafael Nadal 3618
11. Grigor Dimitrov 3338
12. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 2799
13. Gilles Simon 2630
14. Kevin Anderson 2488
15. Gael Monfils 2305
16. Feliciano Lopez 2303
17. David Goffin 2178
18. Tommy Robredo 2048
19. John Isner 2043
20. Viktor Troicki 1810
21. Leonardo Mayer 1794
22. Richard Gasquet 1768
23. Roberto Bautista Agut 1733
24. Ivo Karlovic 1714
25. Nick Kyrgios 1676
26. Bernard Tomic 1625
27. Pablo Cuevas 1467
28. Guillermo Garcia-Lopez 1363
29. Philipp Kohlschreiber 1353
30. Jack Sock 1350
31. Fabio Fognini 1348
32. Dominic Thiem 1235

Adrian Mannarino
Andreas Seppi
Gilles Muller
Jerzy Janowicz

There are only a few seeds which actually matter. The seeds going into the draw are put into groups: 1, 2, 3-4, 5-8, 9-12, 13-16, 17-24, 25-32.

The first three seeds are locked in place, so the only distinctions that still are up for grabs and actually matter are 4/5, 8/9, 12/13, 16/17, 24/25, 32/unseeded.

The 4/5 seed battle
This one was made simple with Wawrinka's loss to Anderson today. If Nishikori reaches the final in Halle, he will be the No. 4 seed, and if not, Wawrinka will be the No. 4 seed. Berdych and Raonic both would need to win the title at their respective tournaments to enter the conversation. Nishikori's path to the final shouldn't be too challenging. He will play Janowicz in the quarterfinals. In the semifinals, he could meet the winner of Monfils and Seppi. Nishikori would be the favorite against either of them.

The 8/9 seed battle
Ferrer has clinched the No. 8 seed.

The 12/13 seed battle
In reality the distinction between these two seeds hardly matters, but there is a slight distinction. As of now, Tsonga has the No. 12 seed, while Nadal and Dimitrov have both clinched a top 12 seed. Tsonga could lose his No. 12 seed to a number of players. Simon would need to reach the final in London to catch up to Tsonga. Anderson, Isner and Monfils each need to win a title to surpass Tsonga.

The 16/17 seed battle
This battle got a lot more simple today. Anderson and Monfils have now clinched a spot in the top 16. If Isner reaches the final in London, he will take a top-16 seed from Lopez.

The 24/25 seed battle
This is another distinction that isn't too important, but the scenarios are simple. Garcia-Lopez needs to reach the final to have a chance at stealing the No. 24 seed from Troicki or Karlovic. Each of them can protect themselves from that threat with just one more win. If Garcia-Lopez wins the title, either Karlovic or Troicki are likely in trouble. Also, it is mathematically possible for Seppi to swipe the No. 24 seed. He would need to reach the final of Halle to enter the mix.

The 32/unseeded battle
This race is completely different from the other ones in that the special Wimbledon formula is no longer relevant. This is based strictly on ATP rankings. The ones that can possibly lose their seed are Kohlschreiber, Garcia-Lopez, and Sock. The challengers are Seppi, Muller, and Janowicz. Seppi only needs to reach the final of Halle, while the other two need to win the title.

A lot would have to go wrong for Sock to lose his seed. Garcia-Lopez would have to beat Anderson. Then Muller would have to win the title in London. On top of that, Seppi would have to reach the final in Halle or Janowicz win the title in Halle.

As of now, if there were a withdrawal from a seed, Mannarino would fill the spot of the No. 33 seed.


  1. Any chance Nadal gets bumped up into the top 8 if he does well this week at Queens?

    1. No the max , he can gain is 500 points at queens which would put him behind cilic.

  2. How does Nishikori get 445 points (6263-5818) to reach Wawrinka by reaching the final in Halle? Doesn't he have to win the title for that?

    1. It is part of the Wimbledon adjustment formula. All grass events from the last 12 months essentially count as double (without getting into all the little details), so those 300 points from reaching a final actually count as 600 points.

  3. re your 32-seed battle: you say the formula does not apply - does that mean that it does not apply for 25-32? And why do they not use the formula for all rankings?