Friday, July 10, 2015

Novak Djokovic as World No. 1

While the proposition of having to face Roger Federer in a Wimbledon final is a difficult one for Novak Djokovic, there is some benefit for the Serb in Andy Murray's loss. The Brit presents Djokovic's biggest mathematical threat for the No. 1 ranking, but after outlasting Murray in his home touranment, Djokovic has extended his lead over the current world No. 3.

Following Roland Garros, the Serb had the No. 1 ranking clinched going into the US Open, and following the semifinal matches at Wimbledon, Djokovic's is guaranteed to remain ranked ahead of Murray until October 12.

Djokovic's lead is greater than that though. Even if Murray wins all of his matches for the rest of the year, he won't have as many ranking points as Djokovic has now. The maximum possible year-end ranking points Murray can get is 13,350. And even if Murray does win every match for the rest of the year, it's still possible that Djokovic will hold him off for the year-end No. 1.

From the start of the Australian Open to the end of Monte Carlo, Djokovic will have far more points to defend than Murray with his only chance to gain points coming in Dubai. That means that while Djokovic's No. 1 spot is safe for the next few months, Murray or even potentially Roger Federer could be making a run for that No. 1 ranking in the early parts of the 2016 season.

*There is one possibility for Federer to get to be the world No. 1, which would be one week after the US Open. However, the very next week he is guaranteed to lose the No. 1 ranking to Djokovic if that scenario does play out, because he will be losing his 1000 points from Shanghai before he has a chance to defend them. His next chance to get it back would come the week after Shanghai after he has the chance to gain those points back. In order for Federer to gain enough points for that to even be possible, Murray would be completely out of the hunt with no better than finalists appearances in every tournament.

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