Sunday, October 25, 2015

Under 22 Country Rankings

This list is to give an idea of which countries will be dominating tennis in five to 10 years.

The formula is sum ranking points of teenagers in top 1000 from said country plus sum ranking points of players 20 and 21 years old in the top 500 from said country.

No. Country - Ranking Points (# of players that fit criteria)
1. Australia - 2869 (11)
2. France - 2447 (18)
3. United States - 2168 (17)
4. Croatia - 1108 (2)
5. Germany - 1105 (7)
6. South Korea - 1057 (4)
7. Russia - 1031 (8)
8. Italy - 901 (9)
9. Serbia - 851 (6)
10. Great Britain 788 (2)
11. Belgium - 757 (4)
12. Spain - 740 (9)
13. Czech Republic - 613 (4)
14. Sweden - 490 (2)
15. Japan - 487 (3)
16. Argentina - 439 (5)
17. Chile - 393 (3)
18. India - 352 (4)
19. Poland - 273 (4)
20. Brazil - 187 (4)

Analysis - In total there were 42 countries that had at least one player that met the criteria. In the formula, there is only one adjustment for age, which isn't really an adjustment at all, because with the top countries, the points of players outside the top 500 have very little impact anyways. In other words, countries with more players in their early twenties have a clear advantage on this list, that is really not a good predictor of future success. Those advantages went specifically to Great Britain and Australia.

If we only counted teenagers, it would be a two-way race between Croatia and the United States. Germany and Russia are also doing particularly well among teenagers. France meanwhile, has a good age distribution and the most representatives of any country.

Not surprisingly, if you have seen other posts of mine on this topic, Spain is in big trouble. Although there are nine representatives from Spain, which is tied for the fourth most, the Spaniards are 12th on the list even though it is the top country in tennis right now.

Brazil and South Korea each come out a little underrated, while Italy and Serbia are both slightly overrated. The future of Belgium is in a good place. The Belgians are in 11th place and that does not count David Goffin, who will be around for a long time still.

If 22-year olds had been counted on this list, Austria and Czech Republic would have stood to gain the most. Also if we counted 23-year olds, which will be hitting their peaks in about five years, the United States and Australia would have really separated themselves from France, whose highest-ranked 23-year old is outside the top 250 in the world.

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