Saturday, December 31, 2016

2017 ATP Year-End Top 100 Predictions

Kevin Craig and I are going head-to-head for the second year in a row, predicting the year-end top 100 in the ATP. Kevin won handily last year. Here are our predictions:

Rank Kevin Craig Jared Pine
1 Novak Djokovic Novak Djokovic
2 Milos Raonic Andy Murray
3 Roger Federer Milos Raonic
4 Andy Murray Kei Nishikori
5 Stan Wawrinka Rafael Nadal
6 Nick Kyrgios Dominic Thiem
7 Lucas Pouille Marin Cilic
8 Dominic Thiem Nick Kyrgios
9 Kei Nishikori Grigor Dimitrov
10 Juan Martin del Potro Jack Sock
11 Marin Cilic Stan Wawrinka
12 Rafael Nadal David Goffin
13 Alex Zverev Tomas Berdcyh
14 Jack Sock Roger Federer
15 Jo-Wilfried Tsonga Lucas Pouille
16 Grigor Dimitrov Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
17 David Goffin Alexander Zverev
18 Gael Monfils Bernard Tomic
19 Tomas Berdych Steve Johnson
20 Bernard Tomic Roberto Bautista Agut
21 Steve Johnson John Isner
22 Roberto Bautista Agut Gael Monfils
23 Sam Querrey Pablo Carreno Busta
24 Pablo Carreno Busta Ricahrd Gasquet
25 David Ferrer Borna Coric
26 Borna Coric Pablo Cuevas
27 John Isner Albert Ramos
28 Richard Gasquet Viktor Troicki
29 Kyle Edmund Kyle Edmund
30 Karen Khachanov Andrey Kuznetsov
31 Jiri Vesely Karen Khachanov
32 Federico Delbonis Jiri Vesely
33 Martin Klizan Gilles Simon
34 Mischa Zverev Martin Klizan
35 Pablo Cuevas Juan Martin del Potro
36 Fernando Verdasco Taylor Fritz
37 Joao Sousa Diego Schwartzman
38 Fabio Fognini Sam Querrey
39 Gilles Simon Kevin Anderson
40 Marcos Baghdatis David Ferrer
41 Gilles Muller Gerald Melzer
42 Feliciano Lopez Jeremy Chardy
43 Kevin Anderson Benoit Paire
44 Nicolas Almagro Daniel Evans
45 Ivo Karlovic Joao Sousa
46 Alex Dolgopolov Hyeon Chung
47 Taylor Fritz Alexandr Dolgopolov
48 Hyeon Chung Adam Pavlasek
49 Thomaz Bellucci Renzo Olivo
50 Albert Ramos-Vinolas Jordan Thompson
51 Viktor Troicki Philipp Kohlschreiber
52 Ryan Harrison Pierre-Hugues Herbert
53 Facundo Bagnis Gilles Muller
54 Marcel Granollers Marcel Granollers
55 Guido Pella Nicolas Almagro
56 Jeremy Chardy Facundo Bagnis
57 Donald Young Guido Pella
58 Juan Monaco Adrian Mannarino
59 Nicolas Mahut Jan-Lennard Struff
60 Daniil Medvedev Damir Dzumhur
61 Jordan Thompson Dusan Lajovic
62 Adam Pavlasek Ricardas Berankis
63 Dustin Brown Gastao Elias
64 Andrey Kuznetsov Ryan Harrison
65 Frances Tiafoe Mischa Zverev
66 Tommy Robredo John Millman
67 Vasek Pospisil Florian Mayer
68 Pierre-Hugues Herbert Nikoloz Basilashvili
69 Diego Schwartzman Daniil Medvedev
70 Phillip Kohlschreiber Illya Marchenko
71 John Millman Ivo Karlovic
72 Robin Haase Fernando Verdasco
73 Stefan Kozlov Fabio Fognini
74 Denis Istomin Thomaz Bellucci
75 Reilly Opelka Yoshihito Nishioka
76 Adrian Mannarino Vasek Pospisil
77 Illya Marchenko Mikhail Kukushkin
78 Guillermo Garcia-Lopez Jared Donaldson
79 Paolo Lorenzi Malek Jaziri
80 Julien Benneteau Santiago Giraldo
81 Benoit Paire Frances Tiafoe
82 Jared Donaldson Feliciano Lopez
83 Andreas Seppi Marcos Baghdatis
84 Yoshihito Nishioka Andrey Rublev
85 Damir Dzumhur Elias Ymer
86 Jan-Lennard Struff Duckhee Lee
87 Mikhail Youzhny Bjorn Fratangelo
88 Daniel Evans Dustin Brown
89 Malek Jaziri Taro Daniel
90 Radek Stepanek Juan Monaco
91 Radu Albot Ernesto Escobedo
92 Denis Kudla Quentin Halys
93 Rajeev Ram Laslo Djere
94 Peter Polansky Noah Rubin
95 Lukas RosolStefan Kozlov
96 Stefanos Tsitsipas Michael Mmoh
97 Ernesto Escobedo James Duckworth
98 Jozef Kovalik Denis Shapovalov
99 Henri Laaksonen Andreas Seppi
100 Jerzy Janowicz Casper Ruud

If there was any doubt that it's hard to guess the top 100 in the world 52 weeks in advance, consider the fact that Kevin and I only have three picks in common: Novak Djokovic at No. 1, Kyle Edmund at No. 29, and Marcel Granollers at No. 54. Considering how far off some of the other predictions are, the fact that Edmund and Granollers are the same on both of our lists are more of a sign of coincidence than our combined tennis knowledge.

Kevin's bold predictions: Roger Federer at No. 3, Lucas Pouille at No. 7, and Reilly Opelka at No. 75.

Jared's bold predictions: Rafael Nadal at No. 5, Grigor Dimitrov at No. 9, and Gerald Melzer at No. 41.

Kevin's pessimistic picks: Kei Nishikori at No. 9, Rafael Nadal at No. 12, and Tomas Berdych at No. 19.

Jared's pessimistic picks: Roger Federer at No. 14, Gael Monfils at No. 22, and Juan Martin del Potro at No. 35.

Missing from Kevin's top 100: Gerald Melzer, Florian Mayer, and Nikoloz Basilashvili

Missing from Jared's top 100: Nicolas Mahut, Robin Haase, and Tommy Robredo

United States Top 10 Predictions

Rank Kevin Craig Jared Pine
1 Jack Sock (14) Jack Sock (10)
2 Steve Johnson (21) Steve Johnson (19)
3 Sam Querrey (23) John Isner (21)
4 John Isner (27) Taylor Fritz (36)
5 Taylor Fritz (47) Sam Querrey (38)
6 Ryan Harrison (52) Ryan Harrison (64)
7 Donald Young (57) Jared Donaldson (78)
8 Frances Tiafoe (65) Frances Tiafoe (81)
9 Stefan Kozlov (73) Bjorn Fratangelo (87)
10 Reilly Opelka (75) Ernesto Escobedo (91)

Opposite of last year, I'm the optimistic one for Sock, Johnson, and Isner, while Kevin has high hopes for Querrey, Harrison, and Young. Both of us are expecting good years from the players born in the final years of the 20th century.

Across the board, expectations for American tennis 2017 are higher than they have been in nearly a decade and its not without good reason. Kevin and I have different predictions about which Americans will have success in the next 52 weeks, but there is no doubt that this will be a good year for more than just a couple of players representing the stars and stripes.

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