Tuesday, May 23, 2017

Zverev makes generational statement in Rome

With his title in Rome, Sascha broke a new record by being 3,126 days younger than the next youngest player with a Masters Series 1000 title.

ROME, Italy -- As the average peak age of tennis players gets older, it becomes increasingly impressive when a young player makes a run at a big tournament, defeats a top-10 player or, in the case of 20-year old Alexander Zverev, win a Masters Series 1000 title. However, the German hasn't quite got the attention he deserves.

Sometimes when someone does something so unprecedented, the achievement fails to get the deserved recognition, because there is nothing to compare it to. When Novak Djokovic won four majors in a row on three different surfaces, the achievement was overlooked. There was nothing to compare with what Djokovic had done. Some tried to compare it to things Roger Federer had done, but Federer never won four in a row. Others wanted to compare it to Rod Laver's grand slams, but that was on only two different surfaces

Zverev's incredible run to the title in Rome has been compared to other players from outside the Big Four winning Masters Series 1000 titles, but none of those players were 20-years old at the time. The next youngest players to win a Masters Series 1000 title in the era of the Big Four aren't even close to Zverev.

23-year old Jo-Wilfried Tsonga: Paris (2008)
24-year old Tommy Robredo: Hamburg (2006)
25-year old David Nalbandian: Madrid & Paris (2007)
26-year old Robin Soderling: Paris (2010)
27-year old Marin Cilic: Cincinnati (2016)

A lot has changed in tennis in the nine years since Tsonga won the title in Paris. The most impressive stat to come out of Sunday's final was that Sascha, born in 1997, was the first player born in the 1990's to even win a set in a Masters Series final. That is an entire generation of players that got skipped.

This graph gives a visual representation of the distribution of Masters Series 1000 titles by birth year with the red bar all alone on the right belonging to Zverev.


The next youngest player to have won a 1000 title is Cilic, who is more than 8.5 years older than Zverev. That means nobody born in the eight and a half years between Cilic and Zverev has been able to do with Zverev just did.

Below is a list of all the players who at the time of their first title were the youngest to have won a Masters Series 1000.

Stefan Edberg (1-19-1966) - won the first Masters Series 1000 tournament
Andre Agassi (4-29-1970)
Michael Chang (2-22-1972)
Andriy Medvedev (8-31-1974)
Roberto Carretero (8-30-1975)
Marcelo Rios (11-11-1975)
Carlos Moya (8-27-1976)
Mark Philippoussis (11-7-1976)
Marat Safin (1-27-1980)
Lleyton Hewitt (2-24-1981)
Roger Federer (9-8-1981)
Guillermo Coria (1-18-1982)
Andy Roddick (8-30-1982)
Rafael Nadal (6-3-1986)
Novak Djokovic (5-22-1987)
Marin Cilic (9-28-1988)
Alexander Zverev (4-20-1997)

This means that with his title in Rome, Sascha broke a new record by being 3,126 days younger than the next youngest player with a Masters Series 1000 title. It is actually twice as big of a gap as any two other players on the above timeline. 

The second largest gap was the time between the birthdays of Edberg and Agassi. However, both of these players won their first Masters Series titles in the first year of the event. If Masters Series 1000's had been played before during the 1980s, certainly someone born between those two dates (like a Boris Becker or Thomas Muster) would have already won a title.

Here's how many days younger each player is than the next youngest player to have won a 1000 at the time of their first title.

Zverev 3,126
Agassi 1,561
Nadal 1,373
Safin 1,176
Medvedev 921
Chang 664
Cilic 495
Hewitt 394
Carretero 364
Djokovic 353
Moya 290
Roddick 224
Federer 196
Coria 132
Rios 73
Philippoussis 72

This stat gives an indication of just how hard it was to break through at the time of their breakthrough. In other words, Coria, Rios, Philippoussis and Federer broke through at a time when there was a vacancy at the top of the game. Since this is Big Four era, it's no surprise that it has never been harder to do what Zverev just did this week in Rome.

Sunday, May 21, 2017

Djokovic's Top-2 Reign

Novak Djokovic has been ranked inside the top 2 in the world for the last 324 weeks and he is guaranteed to remain in the top 2 for at least two more weeks. That means Djokovic will have been ranked either No. 1 or No. 2 in the world six and a quarter years.

For some context, here are the longest streaks of other top players
Roger Federer: 347
Novak Djokovic: 324
John McEnroe: 321
Jimmy Connors: 290
Ivan Lendl: 280
Rafael Nadal: 213, 105
Pete Sampras: 172, 155
Bjorn Borg: 135
Andy Murray: 81

For Djokovic to catch Federer, he has to remain inside the top 2 until the week of the Paris-Bercy Masters 1000. That right now looks very unlikely with Rafael Nadal almost certainly catching Djokovic before the Serb has a chance to catch Andy Murray.

There are four players that have a shot to catch Djokovic in the rankings at Roland Garros: Marin Cilic, Milos Raonic, Stan Wawrinka and Nadal. This is a look at what Djokovic needs to do to prevent each of the following players from passing him in the rankings.

Cilic needs to win the title to have a chance to surpass Djokovic.
-Djokovic needs to reach at least the quarterfinals to guarantee that Cilic doesn't pass him.

Raonic needs to win the title to have a chance to surpass Djokovic.
-Djokovic needs to reach the final to guarantee that Raonic doesn't pass him.

Wawrinka needs to reach the semifinals to have a chance to surpass Djokovic.
-If Wawrinka loses in the semifinals, Djokovic only needs to arrive to Paris to remain No. 2.
-If Wawrinka loses in the final, Djokovic needs to reach the semifinals to remain No. 2.
-If Wawrinka wins the title, he will surpass Djokovic in the rankings.

Nadal needs to reach the second week to have a chance to surpass Djokovic.
-If Nadal loses in the round of 16, Djokovic only needs to win his first round match.
-If Nadal loses in the quarterfinals, Djokovic must also reach the quarterfinals.
-If Nadal loses in the semifinals, Djokovic must also reach the semifinals.
-If Nadal loses in the final, Djokovic needs to be the player that beat Nadal in the final.
-If Nadal wins the title, he will be the No. 2 player in the world.

This means that Djokovic is guaranteed to remain No. 2 in the world if he wins the title in Paris. If he does remain No. 2 after Roland Garros, he is likely safe until he loses 1000 points in Canada. That would add 10 more weeks to his total, putting him at 334 consecutive weeks inside the top 2 in the world.