Monday, January 28, 2019

Career Grand Slam Results

Almost four years ago, I began tracking total ranking points earned at grand slams by all of the top players in the Open Era. I used the current ranking system for all generations, so that there was no advantage given to the current generation.

It has been a long time since I have updated the numbers, and with the GOAT debate being rekindled, now is as good of a time as any to write about this. I do want to be clear about the role I believe that these numbers should play in the GOAT debate. Anyone who says that "whoever has the most majors is the GOAT" is being too simplistic. Although major titles are the ultimate prize in tennis, there is still plenty to play for besides that: Masters 1000 events, year-end championships, ranking, etc.

Non-major events should also have a place in the GOAT debate. In terms of measuring a players success at majors, it isn't enough to simply count titles, because that treats losing in the first round as the same as losing in the final. More in depth analysis is definitely needed to measure how dominant a player truly is at the majors. Not surprisingly though, players with many grand slam titles will be near the top of all of these lists. So without further preamble, here is what the numbers show.

Career Total Ranking Points Earned At Majors
1. Roger Federer - 69,235
2. Novak Djokovic - 55,105
3. Rafael Nadal - 54,215
4. Jimmy Connors - 40,480
5. Pete Sampras - 40,385
6. Ivan Lendl - 39,890
7. Andre Agassi - 37,675
8. Bjorn Borg - 31,015
9. John McEnroe - 28,760
10. Stefan Edberg - 28,490
11. Andy Murray - 27,970
12. Boris Becker - 26,490
13. Mats Wilander - 25,025
14. Guillermo Vilas - 20,630
15. John Newcombe - 18,210
16. Ken Rosewall - 17,715
17. Jim Courier - 17,620
18. Stan Wawrinka - 16,660
19. Arthur Ashe - 16,295
20. Lleyton Hewitt - 15,975

Average Ranking Points Earned Per Major
1. Bjorn Borg - 1148
2. Rafael Nadal - 951
3. Novak Djokovic - 950
4. Roger Federer - 8999
5. Rod Laver - 851
6. Ken Rosewall - 805
7. Pete Sampras - 721
8. Jimmy Connors - 710
9. John Newcombe - 700
10. Ivan Lendl - 699
11. John McEnroe - 639
12. Andre Agassi - 617
13. Andy Murray - 582
14. Boris Becker - 575
15. Mats Wilander - 568
16. Stefan Edberg - 547
17. Arthur Ashe - 479
18. Jim Courier - 429
19. Guillermo Vilas - 421
20. Jan Kodes - 344

Most Points Earned At One Major
1. Rafael Nadal (Roland Garros) - 24,630
2. Roger Federer (Wimbledon) - 23,035
3. Roger Federer (Australian Open) - 19,050
4. Jimmy Connors (US Open) - 18,720
5. Roger Federer (US Open) - 16,270
6. Novak Djokovic (Australian Open) - 15,505
7. Pete Sampras (Wimbledon) - 15,370
8. Pete Sampras (US Open) - 15,230
9. Novak Djokovic (US Open) - 14,340
10. Ivan Lendl (US Open) - 14,080

Most Points Earned At Player's Weakest Major
1. Roger Federer (Roland Garros) - 10,880
2. Novak Djokovic (Roland Garros) - 10,775
3. Rafael Nadal (Wimbledon) - 9,635
4. Andre Agassi (Wimbledon) - 6,640
5. Ivan Lendl (Wimbledon) - 6,605
6. Andy Murray (Roland Garros) - 5,080
7. Ken Rosewall (Roland Garros) -3,200
7. Jimmy Connors (Australian Open) - 3,200
9. Stefan Edberg (Roland Garros) - 2,930
10. Boris Becker (Roland Garros) - 2,890

Another category that I came up with four years ago is what I call "adjusted ranking points." Roger Federer has played 14 more majors than anyone else on these lists, so it's no surprise that he has the most total points. Bjorn Borg played 48 majors less than Federer, so it's also no surprise that Borg has the best average. So I wanted to come up with a stat that neither rewarded a player for retiring early nor for continuing to play way passed their prime (like Hewitt and Connors).

I measured 43 of the top players in tennis history and the average ranking points earned per major for the entire group is currently at 453. Back when I created this stat, the average was at 475, so I left my formula as it was to keep it consistent. The small change won't matter much. The formula is simply total ranking points minus 475 times number of majors played. That means that every time a player failed to reach at least the semifinals, they lost points so that getting upset early in a tournament actually hurts a player. I personally consider this to be the single most definitive measure of grand slam success. I think the fact that the list matches pretty well with fans' intuitions is a strong indicator of its accuracy in representing the success of players.

Career Points Earned At Majors (Adjusted)
1. Roger Federer - 32,660
2. Novak Djokovic - 27,665
3. Rafael Nadal - 27,140
4. Bjorn Borg - 18,190
5. Pete Sampras - 13,785
6. Jimmy Connors - 13,405
7. Ivan Lendl - 12,815
8. Andre Agassi - 8,700
9. John McEnroe - 7,385
10. Ken Rosewall - 7,265
11. John Newcombe - 5,860
12. Rod Laver - 5,650
13. Andy Murray - 5,170
14. Boris Becker - 4,640
15. Mats Wilander - 4,125
16. Stefan Edberg - 3,790
17. Arthur Ashe - 145

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