Ranking By Tournament

I want to update a stat that I shared in the past. It is the ranking of Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer, and Rafael Nadal at all 14 of the biggest events on the ATP Calendar. What this stat does is it looks at where a player ranks in the history of Indian Wells for example based on career ranking points accumulated (using the current ranking formula). Here are the rankings of each of the three best players in tennis history at each tournament.

Novak Djokovic

First (2): Shanghai, Paris

Second (9): Australian Open, Indian Wells, Miami, Monte Carlo, Rome, 

                   Roland Garros, Canada, Cincinnati, Year-End Finals

Third (2): Madrid, Wimbledon

Fourth (1): US Open

Roger Federer

First (5): Australian Open, Indian Wells, Wimbledon, Cincinnati, Year-End Finals

Second (2): Madrid, US Open

Third (5): Miami, Rome, Roland Garros, Shanghai

Fourth (3): Monte Carlo, Canada, Paris

Rafael Nadal

First (5): Monte Carlo, Madrid, Rome, Roland Garros, Canada

Second (0):

Third (1): Indian Wells

Fourth (2): Shanghai, Australian Open

Fifth or lower (6): Miami, Wimbledon, Cincinnati, US Open, Paris, Year-End Finals

Nadal and Federer are each the best player in over one third of all of the most important events on tour. Djokovic ranks among the top-2 at 11 of the 14 events. Both Federer and Djokovic rank in the top-4 at every event, and if Djokovic reaches the semifinals at the US Open, he will be in the top-3 for every tournament.

Over the next 12 months, Djokovic has a strong chance to move up one spot at Wimbledon (needs to reach the final), US Open (needs to reach the semifinals) and the Australian Open (needs to reach the quarterfinals or better if Federer does well). He also has a chance to retake the lead in Canada depending on how well Nadal performs at that tournament.

Nadal, over the next 12 months, has a chance to catch Djokovic at Indian Wells if he wins the tournament and Djokovic loses in the semifinals or earlier. He could also catch Federer for fourth place in Paris if he reaches the final there. If Nadal reaches the semifinals at the Australian Open, he would move into third place, but he is stuck in fifth place or lower at Wimbledon and the US Open at least for this year.

Federer doesn't have much room to improve. He could perhaps catch Djokovic in Miami or Agassi in Canada, but it is mathematically impossible to change his ranking at any of the majors. The best thing Federer can do is continue to perform well to make it harder for Nadal and Djokovic to catch up to him.