Sunday, November 2, 2014

Year-end No. 1 scenarios

Novak Djokovic claimed his second consecutive title in Paris with a 6-2, 6-3 win over Milos Raonic on Sunday. The win gave the Serb a 1310-point lead over Roger Federer in Emirates ATP Rankings with just two events left in the year.

Both players will be playing in London in a week's time, where up to 1500 points are up for grabs. Then, Federer will be representing Switzerland in the Davis Cup final for France, where he could get up to 225 more ranking points. That same week, Djokovic is guaranteed to lose 150 ranking points, which he earned in Serbia's loss in the Davis Cup final last year.

These are the scenarios for which of the two will finish the year as the world No. 1:

If Djokovic wins all three group stage matches or reaches the final in London, he will clinch the year-end No. 1 ranking.

If Djokovic wins just two group stage matches and doesn't reach the final...
-Federer must win all five matches in London and a live rubber in the Davis Cup final to be the world No. 1

If Djokovic wins jut one group stage match...
-Federer can clinch the year-end No. 1 with five wins in Paris.
-If Federer wins two group stage matches in London and the title, he must win one live rubber in the Davis Cup final to be the world No. 1.

If Djokovic doesn't win any match in London...
-Federer can clinch the year-end No. 1 by winning the title and at least two group stage matches.
-If Federer wins one group stage matches and the title, he must win one live rubber to be the world No. 1.
-If Federer wins three group stage matches and his semifinal, he must win two live rubbers in the Davis Cup final to be world No. 1.

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