London World No. 1 Scenarios

Milos Raonic claimed a 7-6(5), 7-5 win over Roger Federer yesterday, meaning that Novak Djokovic is guaranteed to be the No. 1 seed at the ATP World Tour Finals in London, which starts in a week.

Djokovic is playing Milos Raonic in the final in Paris. Djokovic now holds a 910-point lead over Federer in the Race to London Rankings. These are the scenarios for who between the two will be the world No. 1 after the year-end finals.

Note: Roger Federer can gain up to 225 additional points in the Davis Cup Final following the year-end finals and Djokovic will lose 150 points, so Djokovic could be the No. 1 after London, but Federer could still be the year-end No. 1.

If Djokovic loses to Raonic, Djokovic would hold a 910-point lead over Federer going into London...
-If Djokovic reaches the final or wins all three group stage matches, he will remain the world No. 1.
-If Djokovic only wins two group stage matches, Federer must win the title and all three group stage matches to be world No. 1.
-If Djokovic only wins one group stage match, Federer must win the title and at least two group stag matches or all three group stage matches and his semifinal to be the world No. 1.
-If Djokovic doesn't win any match, Federer must win the title or two group stage matches and his semifinal to be world No. 1.

If Djokovic wins Paris, Djokovic would hold a 1310-point lead over Federer going into London...
-If Djokovic wins one group stage match, he will remain world No. 1.
-If Djokovic doesn't win any group stage match, Federer must win all five matches to be the world No. 1.