Upset Alerts in Doha

Doha this year has fielded one of the best lists of players at a 250 event in a long time. The tournament includes five top 10 players, getting ready for the Australian Open. It's going to be a fun tournament, and I am predicting a pair of big upsets. I'm predicting that neither Rafael Nadal nor Andy Murray will reach the semifinals.

I know I'm not the only person predicting Murray will struggle in his return from back surgery. His performance was not convincing in Abu Dhabi, and Fernando Verdasco, who is the likely quarterfinal opponent, is a serious threat to Murray. In the Wimbledon quarterfinals, Verdasco won the first two sets against Murray, who played the best tennis of his career in that fortnight. Murray struggled handling playing against a left-handed player. Since that match, Murray has only played one other lefty. Add on the back problems, and Verdasco has a good shot at pulling off the first big upset of 2014.

The Nadal prediction is probably the more surprising prediction of the two. No, I am not saying Rosol will upset Nadal again. I think Ernests Gulbis is finally going to get over the hump and beat Nadal. He has won a set against Nadal five times, and is getting closer to pulling off the upset each time.

On top of that, it's the perfect conditions for Latvian claim his first win over the world No. 1 in seven attempts. More than it just being a hard court tournament, it's a 250 tune-up for a slam, which historically is the kind of tournament where Nadal doesn't make his best effort. In his career, Nadal is 39-17 (69.6%) with just one title in 250 events that are within two weeks of a grand slam. At masters 1000 events, Nadal's winning percentage is 84.1%. 1000 events are also best-of-three sets and have a significantly tougher field of opponents.

The conditions are perfect for upsets. Verdasco and Gulbis just have to be ready to take advantage.

4 Most Overrated and Underrated Players going into 2014

It's always fun to discus who the most and underrated players in tennis are. And the unique thing about the conversation it is impossible to agree. If everyone thinks that a player is underrated, then they are overrating that player. For many people the definition of overrated and underrated vary. For this post, I defined overrated and underrated based on expectations for 2014. Players that are expected (by fans and analysts) to do too much are overrated, while players whose expectations are too low are underrated. With that, here are the four most overrated and underrated tennis players going into the 2014 tennis season.
Overrated
1. Stanislas Wawrinka- It is easy to overrate a guy who has his biggest results on the biggest stages in the game. The tennis world stopped during Wawrinka's incredible matches against Djokovic to see him play in two of the best matches of the year. However, when Wawrinka lost four-of-five matches to players with an average ranking of 92, nobody noticed. Wawrinka did have an incredible 2013 season, but staying in the top eight in the world for 2014 is far from a guarantee.
2. Jerzy Janowicz- Once again his ranking is balancing on one leg. If he doesn't have another huge result before Wimbledon, he could drop out of the top 40. Janowicz's incredible runs in Paris and Wimbledon have been the only times a lot of fans have gotten to see him (aside from his awesome tirade in Melbourne). Take away his two amazing results in the last 48 months and he wouldn't even be noteworthy. Consistency is the key to the top 10 and he lacks that severely. I expect him to improve in 2014, but the top 10 finish that many are predicting is very unlikely.
3. Andy Murray- Murray will always be overrated since he won Wimbledon, so I should probably just get used to it. However, the expectations for Murray in 2014 are just absurd. People don't realize just how bad of a 2013 season he had. Yes, he won Miami, Wimbledon and reached the final in Melbourne, but outside of those three tournaments, it was another poor season. Poor may be a harsh word for someone who finished the season ranked No. 4 in the world, but fans always want to put him as part of the Big Four and by Djokovic and Nadal's standards, it was a poor season. In 2014, Murray is going to lay an egg on clay, while fail to put together consecutive good results on hard courts. His longest winning streak in 2014 will be less than 15.
4. Grigor Dimitrov- BabyFed will likely crack the top 10 eventually, but not this year. His win over an injured Djokovic set the expectations unrealistically high for the Bulgarian. I want him to do well just like everyone else, but the results aren't going to come immediately. It's going to take time.

Underrated
1. Roger Federer- He is the greatest of all time, so he can't possibly be overrated, and he is quite underrated. One of the downsides of being the greatest of all time is that every match he plays is watched. He can't sneak an early round loss past anyone. Anytime he loses, there are headlines. Federer actually did have a decent 2013 season compared to what most people think, and there are a lot of reasons to think 2014 will be even better. Way too many people are predicting  that Federer won't finish in the top 10 or won't win a title. He still is Roger Federer. He might not win a grand slam, but that doesn't mean he isn't good enough to qualify for London. There is no way BabyFed or his countryman Wawrinka will outperform him in 2014.

2. Gilles Simon- Simon is by far the most underrated player of our generation. His playing style doesn't excite most fans, but that doesn't mean it doesn't work. Simon has been in the top 20 since May of 2011, but he doesn't get a lot of attention for it. Simon is one of the smartest players on the court, but also one of the smartest when it comes to scheduling. Every season Simon picks the right tournaments to play to get the maximum amount of ranking points, which is why he will stay in the top 20 in 2014 even if he doesn't get the attention he deserves.
3. Sam Querrey- No doubt it was a disappointing year for the United States' No. 2 player. Dropping out of the top 40 for the second time since he broke through was not one of his goals for the season, but that doesn't mean he is doomed in 2014. A lot of pressure is off Querrey right now, because the expectations are so low. Querrey hasn't played a match since Beijing so it will be a long off season for him to get prepared. Expect a resurgent 2014 season for the American No. 2.
4. Ryan Harrison- This is probably a surprising player to see on the list. For so long, Harrison had been so overrated. Then his 2013 season proved once and for all that he will never meet the hype surrounding him. However, what this has done is put the expectations incredibly low for one of the most competitive players on tour. He still  is just 21-years old and has a career-high ranking of 43. While I don't expect him to return to his career-high ranking, it won't be such a struggle to for Harrison to stay in the top 100. With how low expectations are for Harrison, he should have no problem surpassing them.

Rafole: What can we expect in 2014?

On my list of greatest rivalries in tennis history, I have the rivalry between Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal at No. 2 behind Nadal's rivalry with Roger Federer. Rafole already holds the record for most matches played and most matches in masters series events. It is also tied in records for most finals played and most meetings in slams. It also ranks second in grand slam finals meetings and includes epic meetings like the 2009 Madrid final, 2012 Australian Open final, and 2013 Roland Garros semifinal.

These two have already done all of that against each other and Djokovic is only 26, while Nadal is only 27, meaning we still have several years left in this rivalry. The two could finish with well over 50 matches between each other, considering that they have played 16 times in just the last three years.

The battle for year-end No. 1 in 2014 is a two-horse race. Nobody besides Djokovic and Nadal have a chance to finish the year at No. 1. The two dominate the tour right now. They combined for three of the four slams in 2013 along with eight of the nine 1000 events and the year-end finals. There is no reason it will be any different in 2014. Del Potro and Murray will try to break into the that top two, but their combined ranking in 2013 wasn't as much as either Nadal or Djokovic.

The more Djokovic and Nadal dominate the tour in 2014, the more times they will play each other. Since they are the top two players in the world, they will never play each other before a final, so they have to dominate the tour to play each another six more times.

In their six meetings in 2013, they split the two on clay and the four on hard courts. Unlike Fedal, Rafole is a rivalry on all surfaces. With that, a meeting between Djokovic and Nadal in the Roland Garros final could cement this rivalry as the greatest of all time. The pair's first meeting was at Roland Garros and it would be their third consecutive meeting at the second slam of the year. If Djokovic wins, it will give him a calendar slam with wins against Nadal in finals of all four grand slam events.

The one thing left that the rivalry needs to settle all debate would be a Davis Cup epic. Both players usually participate in Davis Cup and their countries are on opposite sides of the draw in 2014. What better way to end the year than with a Davis Cup match between Djokovic and Nadal. It wouldn't be a stretch to see Spain and Serbia in the Davis Cup final. Both countries reached the final once in the last two years. Djokovic and Nadal would meet in the fourth rubber, which obviously would have huge implications in determining the winner of the tie.

Regardless of which tournaments these two meet in for 2014, when they meet, they will produce the best tennis of the season. And even when they aren't playing each other, they are still battling each other for the top ranking in the world. 2014 is going to be the year of Rafole.

100 Predictons for 2014 ATP World Tour

These are my 100 predictions for the upcoming season. I only got 47 right last year, so I'm hoping I can do a little better this year. All of my grand slam predictions for finalists are at the end. I let the fan inside me come out for those predictions. I'll defend my picks a little bit at the end. Federer will finish the season in the top 10

Federer will not reach a grand slam final

Federer will win one or less 1000 event

Federer will win multiple titles

Nadal will not be No. 1 after the US Open

Nadal will defend one or less hard court title

Nadal will get at least 10,000 ranking points

Nobody besides Nadal and Djokovic will be No. 1 or 2

Nadal and Djokovic will combine for at least 3 slams

Nadal and Djokovic will combine for at least 16 finals in slams and masters

Nadal and Djokovic will combine for at least 26,000 ranking points

Djokovic will win a title in at least four of the first five months of the year

Djokovic will win multiple titles in tournaments not played on hard courts

Djokovic will win multiple titles in North America

Djokovic will have more ranking points than Wawrinka and Murray combined

Ferrer will drop out of the top five

Ferrer will earn at least 600 ranking points at one or less tournaments

Ferrer will not win his 600th career match in 2014

Ferrer will win multiple titles for the fifth consecutive year

Murray will not win a grand slam

Murray will finish with less than 8,000 ranking points

Murray will reach one or less semifinals at clay tournaments

Murray and Nadal will meet each other one or less times

Murray will get at least six top 10 wins

Del Potro will be a top four seed at Wimbledon

Del Potro will reach multiple slam semifinals

Del Potro will reach a final in a 1000 or slam before by the end of US Open

Del Potro will win more clay matches than Murray

Del Potro will earn at least $4,000,000 in prize money

Del Potro won't win a five-set match against Nadal, Djokovic, or Murray

Berdych will win a title

Berdych won't win a five-set match against Nadal, Djokovic, or Murray

Berdych will reach the semifinals of at least eight events again

Berdych will end the year ranked higher than Ferrer

Berdych will set a personal record for titles in a season

Berdych, Tsonga, and Federer will not win a grand slam

Wawrinka will never be ranked higher than seven

Wawrinka will fail to reach the quarterfinals in at least two slams

Wawrinka will not beat Djokovic or Nadal

Wawrinka will not finish in the top eight

Gasquet will reach one or less slam quarterfinal

Gasquet will not finish in the top 10

Gasquet will win a title in France

Gasquet will win a five-set match

Gasquet will win at least 42 matches

Tsonga will finish the year as the top-ranked Frenchman

Tsonga will reach the second week in Roland Garros and Wimbledon

Tsonga will defeat three former grand slam champions

Tsonga will win multiple titles

Tsonga will get at least five wins against top 10 opponents

Raonic will finish the year in the top 10

Raonic will win a title without dropping serve

Raonic will lead the tour in aces

Raonic will win at least 10 matches on grass and clay combined

Raonic will reach the quarterfinals in at least eight tournaments

Haas will drop outside the top 20 before Wimbledon

Almagro will win at least 40 matches

Almagro will win a title in South America

Isner will hit at least 900 aces

Fognini will crack the top 15 before the end of February

Anderson will drop out of top 20 before end of March and won't return

Janowicz will finish the year in the top 13

Janowicz will earn at least 500 ranking points from one event

Dimitrov will not win  title

Dimitrov will reach the top 15 for the first time in his career

Dimitrov will reach the fourth round at a slam

Gulbis will reach a career-high ranking before March

Paire will have more double faults than any player in the top 20

Pospisil will reach the top 28 by the end of Wimbledon

Cilic's year-end ranking will be at least 15 spots better than at the start of July

Tomic will not reach the top 20 at any point in the season

Dolgopolov will lose in the first or second round in at least two slams

Between Hewitt, Haas, and Robredo, at least one will retire

Nobody younger than Jiri Vesely will finish the year ranked higher than him

Vesely will win a grand slam match

Harrison will reach a final

Klahn and Young will both be in the top 10 for left-handed players

Sock will earn $500,000 in prize money

Lajovic will crack the top 100

Giraldo will make more in prize money than Seppi

Lopez will hit more aces than Karlovic

Simon's winning record will be better than his percentage of points won

Istomin will hit more aces than he will face break points

Brands will have more break points on his return than on his serve

Brands will reach a final and have a winning record

Matosevic will win a grand slam match

Verdasco will not get more than 300 points at a single tournament

Querrey & Istomin will combine for more ranking points than Haas & Seppi

Exactly four players from Spanish speaking countries will finish in the top 20

At most, 15 different countries will be represented in the top 20

Spain will have  most players in top 15, but France will have most in top 25

At least 20 tournaments will be won by players from that country

The United States will have more players in the top 100 than Germany

No player will reach the top 10 for the first time

The finalists at each slam will be players who have already reached a final

Djokovic will beat Nadal in the Australian Open final

Djokovic will beat Nadal in the Roland Garros final

Djokovic will beat Del Potro in the Wimbledon final

Djokovic will beat Murray in the US Open final

Djokovic will finish the year No. 1 in the world As I thought about my picks for the grand slams, I tried to think about which slam I thought Djokovic wouldn't win, and I couldn't think of any slam that he wouldn't win. He owns the Australian Open, and who will beat him? Murray is coming off an injury and Djokovic owns the rivalry with Nadal on hard courts since the US Open. For Roland Garros, that is going to be Djokovic's biggest goal of the year. He proved he is good enough to win it last year. I think this is the year that he finally gets it done. Wimbledon will be the tough one for Djokovic. Federer and Nadal proved that they won't ever win another Wimbledon with their disappointing performances last year, so it comes down to Djokovic, Murray, and Del Potro. It will be easier to predict a winner when the draw comes out, but a repeat would be difficult for Murray, and Del Potro has a poor five-set record in his career. At the US Open, Djokovic has always done well. His first slam final was at the US Open and he has reached four consecutive finals there. I also predicted Djokovic would win all four in 2013 and I was wrong of course. I would be shocked if Djokovic actually does win the calendar slam, but I'm not sure which one he will lose. This is certainly going to be a fun season at the slams.

Tennis' Greatest Rivalry Outside the Top 10

I've written about this rivalry once before and it deserves another mention, because nobody else is writing about it. If you throw aside any rivalry that involves any of the Big Four, the best rivalry in tennis is between Andreas Seppi and Denis Istomin. Yes, two players outside the top 20 in the world have that great of a rivalry. Forget about Isner/Mahut, Almagro/Berdych, and Tsonga/Wawrinka. The rivalry between Istomin and Seppi is the best of these rivalries.



Istomin (Uzb) is ranked 45 in the world
and reached R16 at the US Open

Not only have the players met several times, they have broken each others' hearts and played some incredible matches on the biggest stages. In 2013, the average amount of time a match lasted between these two was exactly 3.5 hours.They were on court against each other for a total of 10.5 hours this season.

The frequency with which the pair meets in the grand slams is incredible. The pair has met twice in the first round of slams, once in the second round, and once in the third round.  Also, all three of their first meetings, which were not in slams, were first round encounters.

Then, what happens when the pair meets in slams is even more incredible. All four of their meetings in slams have gone five sets. It's rare that two players who have never even sniffed the top 10 would have played one five-set match against each other. But the pair has now played four five-set matches against each other on the biggest stages of the sport.
Roland Garros is now the only major where the pair has not battled out a five-set match. I haven't done the research, but I'm willing to bet no other pair of players in tennis history have had five-set encounters at all four of the majors. Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal have contested four-setters at every slam, but have only gone the distance at the Australian Open and Rolland Garros.

Seppi has established himself as a marathon man. The Italian played in eight five-set matches in 2013 and finished with a record of 7-1 in those matches. The only loss was in the round of 32 at the US Open to Istomin 6-3, 6-4, 2-6, 3-6, 6-1. Those were all relatively short sets for the two however.

Seppi (Ita) is ranked 25 in the world and has played multiple
five-set matches at four of the last seven majors,
including three at Rolland Garros 2012.

The first 13 sets played in grand slams in the rivalry lasted on average 11.7 games. Those 13 sets consisted of six tiebreakers, two 7-5 sets, and an 8-6 set. Because of this, the average length of the four five-set matches was 327.75 points. To put that into perspective, the 2007 Wimbledon final between Nadal and Federer lasted 323 points. So the average grand slam match between Istomin and Seppi is longer than the epic 2007 Wimbledon Final. Also less than eight points shy of this year's epic Rolland Garros semifinal between Nadal and Djokovic.

So keep an eye out when the Australian Open draw is released to see where Istomin and Seppi are. We could see a fifth five-set match in the greatest rivalry that nobody is talking about.