Monday, May 19, 2014

Projected Wimbledon Seeds before Nice & Dusseldorf

The last three weeks, I have looked at what the projected Wimbledon seeds will be in the 2014 Championships. Here is how the projections have changed following play in Rome and the release of the draws in Nice and Dusseldorf.

Race to Wimbledon There are still a couple tournaments between now and Wimbledon, so for this first set of seedings, I took away all of the points each player has to defend in the upcoming tournaments before Wimbledon and added the grass-adjustment component of the Wimbledon seedings to see where each player stands right now. In other words, instead of the Race to London rankings this is the "Race to Wimbledon" seedings.
1. Novak Djokovic
2. Rafael Nadal
3. Andy Murray
4. Roger Federer
5. Stanislas Wawrinka
6. Juan Martin del Potro
7. Tomas Berdych
8. David Ferrer
9. Milos Raonic
10. Kei Nishikori
11. John Isner
12. Grigor Dimitrov
13. Richard Gasquet
14. Mikhail Youzhny
15. Jerzy Janowicz
16. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
17. Fabio Fognini
18. Tommy Haas
19. Ernests Gulbis
20. Fernando Verdasco
21. Alexandr Dolgopolov
22. Kevin Anderson
23. Nicolas Almagro
24. Tommy Robredo
25. Feliciano Lopez
26. Philipp Kohlschreiber
27. Marin Cilic
28. Nicolas Mahut
29. Andreas Seppi
30. Florian Mayer
31. Roberto Bautista Agut
32. Ivan Dodig

If Wimbledon Were Today For this next set of rankings, I added the points each player has to defend back onto their rankings, since the players who typically do well at those big clay tournaments and grass tune-ups will continue to do well there. This is essentially what the Wimbledon seeds would be if the seedings were done today.
1. Novak Djokovic
2. Rafael Nadal
3. Andy Murray
4. Roger Federer
5. Stanislas Wawrinka
6. David Ferrer
7. Juan Martin del Potro
8. Tomas Berdych
9. Milos Raonic
10. Kei Nishikori
11. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
12. John Isner
13. Richard Gasquet
14. Grigor Dimitrov
15. Mikhail Youzhny
16. Tommy Haas
17. Jerzy Janowicz
18. Fabio Fognini
19. Ernests Gulbis
20. Tommy Robredo
21. Fernando Verdasco
22. Kevin Anderson
23. Nicolas Almagro
24. Alexandr Dolgopolov
25. Feliciano Lopez
26. Marin Cilic
27. Philipp Kohlschreiber
28. Gael Monfils
29. Andreas Seppi
30. Florian Mayer
31. Roberto Bautista Agut
32. Gilles Simon

My Picks What the real seeds will be will be somewhere in between these two rankings, so I decided to come up with a logical guess at how well each player will do in the upcoming weeks and see what the seedings are for that. So these are my predictions for the 2014 Wimbledon Men's Singles seeds.

1. Novak Djokovic - Clinched No. 1 seed
2. Rafael Nadal - Clinched No. 2 seed
3. Andy Murray - Looked better in Rome than he has all year
4. Roger Federer - Dropped from No. 3 last week
5. Stanislas Wawrinka - Has to win Roland Garros to crack top four seeds
6. David Ferrer - Has plenty to defend in Paris
7. Tomas Berdych - He will be a contender at SW19 this year
8. Milos Raonic - Here is more on the battle for No. 8 seed
9. Kei Nishikori - Hopefully he will be ready for Roland Garros
10. John Isner - Top seed in Nice
11. Grigor Dimitrov - Closing in on first top 10 ranking
12. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - Upset by Raonic in Rome
13. Mikhail Youzhny - Pushed Nadal to the edge in Rome
14. Richard Gasquet - Hasn't played since March
15. Fabio Fognini - Missed a golden opportunity to reach top 10
16. Jerzy Janowicz - Probably the coldest player on tour
17. Tommy Haas - Upset Wawrinka, but was forced to retire next round
18. Ernests Gulbis - Needs to do well in Paris to get top 16 seed
19. Fernando Verdasco - Upset by Golubev in Rome
20. Alexandr Dolgopolov - Couldn't take advantage of great draw in Rome
21. Nicolas Almagro - Should do well in Paris
22. Tommy Robredo - A lot to defend in Paris
23. Kevin Anderson - Lost in two tiebreak sets to Tsonga in Rome
24. Feliciano Lopez - Lost in first round in Rome to Granollers
25. Marin Cilic - Another victim in Melzer's comeback trail
26. Andreas Seppi - On a three-match losing streak
27. Philipp Kohlschreiber - Has all but clinched a seed
28. Gael Monfils - Missed Madrid and Rome, but is back for Nice
29. Roberto Bautista Agut - First round loss in Rome after arriving late
30. Nicolas Mahut - Grass is by far his best surface; dangerous if unseeded
31. Ivan Dodig - Should have no issue earning a seed
32. Gilles Simon - I have him and Santiago Giraldo each reaching the round of 32 in Paris, which would give Simon the No. 32 seed by just .25 points, leading 1250.75 to 1250.50

*Richard Gasquet is questionable for Wimbledon, since he hasn't played since March. If he withdraws, I have Santiago Giraldo and Dmitry Tursunov as next in line for seeds. I already assumed Juan Martin del Potro and Florian Mayer won't be ready for Wimbledon, since they withdrew from Roland Garros already. If anyone else withdraws, Vasek Pospisil would be next in line.

Most importantly in all of this is the return of the Big Four. Probably for the last time in tennis history, Andy Murray, Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, and Novak Djokovic will occupy the top four seeds at a grand slam tournament (or any tournament). Stanislas Wawrinka is the only player who has a mathmatical chance to break up the top four, and he would have to win the title with a bad back to do so. Wimbledon is going to be fun and historic this year. Let's enjoy it!

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