Monday, May 12, 2014

Projected Wimbledon Seeds before Rome

The last two weeks, I have looked at what the projected Wimbledon seeds will be in the 2014 Championships. Here is how the projections have changed following play in Madrid and the release of the Rome draw.

Race to Wimbledon There are still several tournaments between now and Wimbledon, so for this first set of seedings, I took away all of the points each player has to defend in the upcoming tournaments before Wimbledon and added the grass-adjustment component of the Wimbledon seedings to see where each player stands right now. In other words, instead of the Race to London rankings this is the "Race to Wimbledon" seedings.

1. Novak Djokovic
2. Rafael Nadal
3. Andy Murray
4. Roger Federer
5. Stanislas Wawrinka
6. Juan Martin del Potro
7. Tomas Berdych
8. David Ferrer
9. Kei Nishikori
10. Milos Raonic
11. John Isner
12. Richard Gasquet
13. Jerzy Janowicz
14. Grigor Dimitrov
15. Fabio Fognini
16. Mikhail Youzhny
17. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
18. Ernests Gulbis
19. Alexandr Dolgopolov
20. Fernando Verdasco
21. Tommy Haas
22. Nicolas Almagro
23. Kevin Anderson
24. Tommy Robredo
25. Gael Monfils
26. Feliciano Lopez
27. Florian Mayer
28. Philipp Kohlschreiber
29. Roberto Bautista Agut
30. Andreas Seppi
31. Vasek Pospisil
32. Ivan Dodig

If Wimbledon Were Today For this next set of rankings, I added the points each player has to defend back onto their rankings, since the players who typically do well at those big clay tournaments and grass tune-ups will continue to do well there. This is essentially what the Wimbledon seeds would be if the seedings were done today.

1. Rafael Nadal
2. Novak Djokovic
3. Roger Federer
4. Andy Murray
5. Stanislas Wawinka
6. David Ferrer
7. Juan Martin del Potro
8. Tomas Berdych
9. Kei Nishikori
10. John Isner
11. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
12. Richard Gasquet
13. Milos Raonic
14. Jerzy Janowicz
15. Mikhail Youzhny
16. Grigor Dimitrov
17. Fabio Fognini
18. Tommy Haas
19. Ernests Gulbis
20. Tommy Robredo
21. Fernando Verdasco
22. Kevin Anderson
23. Alexandr Dolgopolov
24. Nicolas Almagro
25. Feliciano Lopez
26. Gael Monfils
27. Marin Cilic
28. Philipp Kohlschreiber
29. Andreas Seppi
30. Gilles Simon
31. Florian Mayer
32. Roberto Bautista Agut

My Picks What the real seeds will be will be somewhere in between these two rankings, so I decided to come up with a logical guess at how well each player will do in the upcoming weeks and see what the seedings are for that. So these are my predictions for the 2014 Wimbledon Men's Singles seeds.

1. Novak Djokovic - How big of an issue will the wrist be?
2. Rafael Nadal - Going for another Madrid-Rome double
3. Roger Federer - Twins won't stop him from being a top seed
4. Andy Murray - Just needs a couple wins to clinch a top four seed
5. Stanislas Wawrinka - Didn't take advantage of Djokovic withdrawal
6. Tomas Berdych - Can he beat Dimitrov twice in two weeks?
7. David Ferrer - Tough draw in Rome
8. Kei Nishikori - Has stolen the No. 8 seed out of nowhere
9. Milos Raonic - Very much in the runner for the eight-seed
10. John Isner - It's a three-man race. Loss to Melzer hurts him
11. Grigor Dimitrov - Should get another crack at Berdych in Rome
12. Richard Gasquet - Forced to miss Madrid and Rome
13. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - Needs to get out of this slump
14. Fabio Fognini - This has been a disappointing clay swing
15. Jerzy Janowicz - Is already out of Rome
16. Mikhail Youzhny - Maintains lead for 16-seed
17. Ernests Gulbis - The grass adjustment will hurt his seeding
18. Alexandr Dolgopolov - He can't get a decent draw right now
19. Fernando Verdasco - Will play a qualifier and Youzhny in Rome
20. Tommy Haas - Very tough first round against Seppi
21. Tommy Robredo - Should face Djokovic in round of 16 in Rome
22. Nicolas Almagro - Is not playing in Rome
23. Kevin Anderson - Not his favorite time of year
24. Andreas Seppi - Rome is just around the corner
25. Roberto Bautista Agut - Another surprise semifinalist in Madrid
26. Marin Cilic - He could very easily be unseeded
27. Philipp Kohlschreiber - Will face Robredo next in Rome
28. Gael Monfils - Forced to miss Madrid and Rome
29. Feliciano Lopez- Already ousted from Rome
30. Florian Mayer - Forced to miss Madrid and Rome
31. Ivan Dodig - Sitting on the border for one of the last seeds
32. Santiago Giraldo - Qualifying for a Masters 1000 is about as hard as reaching the semifinals at a 250 event, but Giraldo did it in Madrid and then continued to reach the quarterfinals with wins over Hewitt, Tsonga, and Murray. Right after that, he has already qualified for Rome. He and Bautista Agut weren't even on my radar for a seed at Wimbledon just a week ago, but now I would be surprised if both of them don't earn a seed. If someone is going to steal a seed, Dodig is the most likely victim. Tursunov, Mahut, and Granollers are all within reach of taking a seed, but they will have to play well in Rome and Roland Garros.

The Race for the No. 8 seed is the most interesting part right now. The No. 8 seed is so crucial, because it guarantees that the player will not face a higher-seeded opponent before the quarterfinals. Whereas a No. 9 seed would have to pull off an upset to reach the quarterfinals.

It's a three-man race between Nishikori, Raonic and Isner. In my projection for what the ranking points will be for the Wimbledon seeds, I have the three only separated by 39 points. Nishikori's back injury will hurt his chances since he had to skip Rome and is questionable for Roland Garros. Meanwhile Raonic and Isner both struggle on clay, so it will be very difficult for them to gain a lot of points in Paris. None of these guys are going to rack up a ton of points before Wimbledon seeds are announced, so every win will make a big difference in their chances for the No. 8 seed.

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