Sunday, May 4, 2014

Projected Wimbledon Seeds (Updated)

Last week, I looked at what the projected Wimbledon seeds will be in the 2014 Championships. Here is how the projections have changed following play in Munich, Oeiras, and the release of the Madrid draw.

Race to Wimbledon There are still several tournaments between now and Wimbledon, so for this first set of seedings, I took away all of the points each player has to defend in the upcoming tournaments before Wimbledon and added the grass-adjustment component of the Wimbledon seedings to see where each player stands right now. In other words, instead of the Race to London rankings this is the "Race to Wimbledon" seedings.

1. Novak Djokovic
2. Rafael Nadal
3. Andy Murray
4. Roger Federer
5. Stanislas Wawrinka
6. Juan Martin del Potro
7. Tomas Berdych
8. David Ferrer
9. John Isner
10. Milos Raonic
11. Richard Gasquet
12. Kei Nishikori
13. Jerzy Janowicz
14. Fabio Fognini
15. Grigor Dimitrov
16. Mikhail Youzhny
17. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
18. Ernests Gulbis
19. Tommy Haas
20. Alexandr Dolgopolov
21. Fernando Verdasco
22. Nicolas Almagro
23. Tommy Robredo
24. Kevin Anderson
25. Gael Monfils
26. Florian Mayer
27. Philipp Kohlschreiber
28. Marin Cilic
29. Andreas Seppi
30. Dmitri Tursunov
31. Ivan Dodig
32. Feliciano Lopez

If Wimbledon Were Today For this next set of rankings, I added the points each player has to defend back onto their rankings, since the players who typically do well at those big clay tournaments and grass tune-ups will continue to do well there. This is essentially what the Wimbledon seeds would be if the seedings were done today.

1. Rafael Nadal
2. Novak Djokovic
3. Roger Federer
4. Andy Murray
5. Stanislas Wawinka
6. David Ferrer
7. Juan Martin del Potro
8. Tomas Berdych
9. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
10. John Isner
11. Richard Gasquet
12. Milos Raonic
13. Kei Nishikori
14. Jerzy Janowicz
15. Mikhail Youzhny
16. Grigor Dimitrov
17. Tommy Haas
18. Fabio Fognini
19. Tommy Robredo
20. Fernando Verdasco
21. Kevin Anderson
22. Ernests Gulbis
23. Nicolas Almagro
24. Alexandr Dolgopolov
25. Gael Monfils
26. Philipp Kohlschreiber
27. Marin Cilic
28. Feliciano Lopez
29. Gilles Simon
30. Florian Mayer
31. Andreas Seppi
32. Nicolas Mahut

My Picks What the real seeds will be will be somewhere in between these two rankings, so I decided to come up with a logical guess at how well each player will do in the upcoming weeks and see what the seedings are for that. So these are my predictions for the 2014 Wimbledon Men's Singles seeds.

1. Novak Djokovic - Withdrew from Madrid
2. Rafael Nadal - Easy draw in Madrid makes this somewhat interesting
3. Roger Federer - Toughest draw in Madrid, but should reach semifinals
4. Andy Murray - Might not even get past Almagro in Madrid
5. Stanislas Wawrinka - Could benefit from Djokovic withdrawal
6. Tomas Berdych - Is it an upset for Berdych if it happens in a final?
7. David Ferrer - One of the favorites to win Madrid now
8. John Isner - Leading a tight race for the No. 8 seed
9. Richard Gasquet - Forced to miss Madrid
10. Kei Nishikori - Straight-forward path to Madrid quarters
11. Fabio Fognini - Retired a week before and was upset yesterday
12. Milos Raonic - Not much seperates him and Isner; that's how tight this is
13. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - Tough draw in Madrid, but should reach quarters
14. Grigor Dimitrov - He is capable of beating anybody on his day
15. Jerzy Janowicz - Should be a first round exit in Madrid
16. Mikhail Youzhny - Leads race for No.16 seed
17. Ernests Gulbis - Needs to reach quarters to have chance at No.16 seed
18. Tommy Haas - One of Klizan's many victims in Munich
19. Alexandr Dolgopolov - His first three matches in Madrid will be fun
20. Fernando Verdasco - Has played well in Madrid the last two years
21. Nicolas Almagro - These next four weeks are crucial for his ranking
22. Tommy Robredo - Already lost to Bautista Agut in Madrid
23. Kevin Anderson - Not expecting Anderson to move up in rankings now
24. Gael Monfils - Forced to miss Madrid
25. Marin Cilic - Will definitely benefit from Djokovic's absense
26. Andreas Seppi - Rome is just around the corner
27. Philipp Kohlschreiber - His early exit in Munich is worrisome
28. Florian Mayer - Forced to miss Madrid
29. Feliciano Lopez- Tough first round match in Madrid
30. Ivan Dodig - Sitting on the border for one of the last seeds
31. Dmitri Tursunov - If he is healthy enough to play, he will be seeded
32. Marcel Granollers - I dropped Pospisil out of top 32 since he hasn't won since he withdrew from the Australian Open, so Granollers slid into the next spot. Mahut, Pospisil, and Simon are right on the edge of getting a seed if they catch fire or someone other than del Potro withdraws from Wimbledon.

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