Race to London nearing dramatic finish

If you don't think qualifying for the Barclays ATP World Tour Finals in London is a huge goal for professional tennis players, go check the entry lists for the three 250-level tournaments being played this week.

Sandwiched between a pair of Masters Series 1000 events along with two 500-events, the 250 events in Vienna, Moscow, and Stockholm this week are typically avoided by the top players without a second thought. However, as the race to London reaches its climax, it is as competitive as ever to earn one of the final three available slots.

With the exception of Kei Nishikori, who preventing a miracle will qualify for London, all five players that are on the bubble for qualification are in action this week along with Marin Cilic, who has clinched because of the grand slam rule. That means, Tomas Berdych, Milos Raonic, Grigor Dimitrov, David Ferrer, and Andy Murray are all playing this week. Murray has never played in Vienna and needed a wildcard to get in, as did Ferrer, who hadn't played the event in a decade. Meanwhile, Raonic is playing Moscow for the first time in his career.

With four spots already locked up officially and Cilic qualified by the grand slam rule, three spots are up for grabs and Nishikori has almost claimed one of them, so the five players in action this week will be battling for the last two spots in the next three weeks. Right now, Berdych leads the group of five with Dimitrov at the bottom, but less than 500 points separate the two.

The race will get even thicker next week with all five again in action in 500 events with both Berdych and Murray accepting wildcards into Valencia along with Cilic, Ferrer, and Nishikori, while Dimitrov and Raonic will play in Basel.

Here is the break down of each of the six players that have not yet qualified or been eliminated that are competing for the final three available spots:

5. Kei Nishikori
Current Race Ranking Points: 4,265
Previous WTF Qualifications: None
Upcoming events: Valencia and Paris
Prediction: Will Qualify
After reaching the final at the US Open, Nishikori was almost a lock to be in the final showdown to end the season. He has only strengthened his credentials with titles in Kuala Lumpur and Tokyo, but missed out on a chance to clinch his spot with a first round loss in Shanghai. Still, Nishikori could lose in the first round of Valencia and Paris and still likely get into London.



7. Tomas Berdych
Current Race Ranking Points: 3,945
Previous WTF Qualifications: 4 times (2010-13)
Upcoming events: Valencia and Paris
Prediction: Will Qualify

His losses have been ugly since the US Open, but luckily losses have been a rarity for Berdych, who has won six of his last eight matches.  The Czech has a great draw in Stockholm and should have no problem at least reaching the final. In Valencia, he will be the No. 3 seed, so he will be on the opposite side of the draw as Murray. Based on records on hard courts, Berdych would much rather be on Ferrer's side of the draw with a 3-4 record against the Spaniard on hard courts including wins in the last two. Meanwhile, he is 0-3 against Nishikori, who will be the No. 2 seed, on hard courts. Whether or not he qualifies really depends on how he does in Paris, which is where he won his second career title back in 2005. However, since then, Berdych has been a pedestrian 14-8 in Bercy.

8. Milos Raonic 
Current Race Ranking Points: 3,735
Previous WTF Qualifications: None
Upcoming events: Moscow, Basel, and Paris
Prediction: Won't Qualify

Raonic will be in action for five consecutive weeks in order to try to reach the year-end finals. His retirement in his first match in Shanghai put his qualification in serious doubt. For him, more than any other player on this list, this next week is crucial. Raonic is the only one on the bubble in Moscow - with Cilic as the No. 2 seed, so anything less than an appearance in a final would be a huge missed opportunity. Also this will set the tone for the two following weeks since he is coming off of the retirement in Shanghai. In Basel, he will be the No. 4 seed, so he will be on the opposite side of Stan Wawrinka, meaning he will either be on Rafael Nadal's side of Roger Federer's. Given Nadal's physical condition in Basel, Raonic would much rather be on his side of the draw. Raonic wins about 10.8% more often when he plays indoors than outdoors in his career, so if he is healthy, he could be very dangerous this week.

9. David Ferrer
Current Race Ranking Points: 3,715
Previous WTF Qualifications: 5 times (2007, 10-13)
Upcoming events: Vienna, Valencia, and Paris
Prediction: Won't Qualify

It seems strange to think that Ferrer wouldn't be in the world tour finals since he is currently No. 5 in the world and has never spent a week outside of the top eight in four years. However, that is a likely reality after the Spanish No. 2 went out in his first match of Shenzhen and Tokyo. He kept himself in the hunt with an impressive win over Murray in Shanghai to reach the quarterfinals and surpass Murray in the race. He could face Murray again in both Vienna and Valencia before we even get to Paris. If the final spot in London is truly between Ferrer and Murray, this is the best kind of drama the ATP could ask for to end the year.

10. Andy Murray
Current Race Ranking Points: 3,655
Previous WTF Qualifications: 5 times (2008-12)
Upcoming events: Vienna, Valencia, and Paris
Prediction: Will Qualify

Murray is making the biggest push of any player to try to qualify for the world tour finals held in his home country. The Brit accepted wildcards to both Vienna and Valencia specifically to rack up enough points to qualify to play in the O2 arena. Murray had to pull out of the event after one match in 2011 and missed the event last year and has never reached the final. With titles at the London Olympics, Wimbledon, and Queen's Club, the year-end finals along with Eastbourne are the only events in Great Britain, which Murray hasn't won yet. Until the loss to Ferrer, Murray had been playing his best tennis of the year since the US Open.

11. Grigor Dimitrov
Current Race Ranking Points: 3,450
Previous WTF Qualifications: 4 times (2010-13)
Upcoming events: Valencia and Paris
Prediction: Won't Qualify

At the start of the season, Dimitrov wasn't on most people's radars as someone who would be in the year-end finals, but after reaching the quarterfinals in Melbourne and winning the title in Acapulco, BabyFederer became a serious contender. The Bulgarian has not been impressive since reaching the semifinals in Canada, where he looked like a player that would be qualified by now. Instead he is at the bottom of this list, but he certainly isn't out of the race. Out of the five players in action this week, Dimitrov has the toughest draw and he will go into Basel as the No. 5 seed, meaning he will need to come up with some big wins just to reach the final. If Dimitrov gets into the year-end finals, he is going to have to earn it, but I think tennis would love to see him join Raonic as the first two players born in the 90s to reach the world tour finals.