Saturday, January 2, 2016

100 Random Predictions for 2016

This is my fourth set of preseason predictions as the off season is a day away from ending. I started with my expert panel that filled out a questionnaire for the upcoming season. I also had my prediction for the year-end top 100 in 2016, doing that set of predictions for the fifth year in a row.

In 2013, I got 47 of my predictions correct, in 2014, 48 of them came true, and last season, I got 63 predictions correct. I tried to maintain the same degree of difficulty in my predictions for 2016, but measuring that degree of difficulty is hard to do unless other experts make the exact same kind of predictions. That was the reasoning behind doing an expert panel that filled out a questionnaire, and even among the experts, there was quite a bit of disagreement.

So in an attempt to maintain that same degree of boldness, here are my 100 predictions for the 2016 tennis season.

A South American will win a title in February
Anderson never return to the top 10
Anderson will hit less than 1000 aces
At least 10 Americans will finish in the top 100
At least four Americans will be ranked higher than the top German
At least four Americans will reach a final
At least four Serbs will finish in the top 100
At least seven Frenchmen will finish in the top 50
At least three college graduates will finish in the top 25
At most 12 Spaniards will finish in the top 100
At most one teenager will finish in the top 50
Bautista Agut will win more return points than Federer
Berdych will stay in the top 10 all year
Bhambri will win a grand slam match
Chung will reach the semifinal of a tour-level tournament
Cilic will return to the top 10 at some point in 2016
Coppejans will win a tour-level match
Coric will reach the final of a tour-level tournament
Djokovic will be No. 1 all year
Djokovic will beat Murray at the Australian Open
Djokovic will beat Murray at Wimbledon
Djokovic will beat Nadal at Roland Garros
Djokovic will defeat Federer in the gold medal match
Djokovic will win titles on every surface
Durasovic will reach the main draw of the Challenger Tour event
Federer will drop out of the top 5
Federer will hit at least 400 aces
Federer will not win a title on clay
Federer will win a medal in Rio
Federer will win no more than one elite event
Ferrer will drop out of the top 10
Five Australians will combine for at least 5000 ranking points
Fognini will hold serve less than 500 times
France will win the Davis Cup
Fratangelo will win a tour-level match
Garcia-Lopez will have a losing record in finals
Gasquet will drop out of the top 10 before the US Open
Goffin will beat a player in the top 10
Goffin will reach his first career grand slam quarterfinal
Groth will win a Masters main draw match
Isner will be the top ranked American all year
Isner will lead the tour in aces
Isner will return to the top 10 at some point in 2016
Isner will win less than 20 Masters matches
Janowicz will finish in the top 50
Johnson will be seeded at every grand slam
Johnson will win a tour-level title
Khachanov will reach a grand slam main draw
Kokkinakis will not win a title
Kyrgios will not reach the quarterfinals of a grand slam
Miedler will win a Challenger Tour match
Murray will be No. 2 for the entire year
Murray will beat Nishikori at the US Open
Murray will earn at least 10,000 ranking points
Murray will hold serve more times than Wawrinka
Murray will not win multiple slams
Murray will win a medal in Rio
Murray will win a title on every surface
Nadal will be the only lefty in the year-end top 25
Nadal will break serve at least 300 times
Nadal will finish ahead of Federer in the rankings
Nadal will go undefeated against Fognini all year
Nadal will have a winning record against the top 10
Nadal will hold more times than Federer
Nadal will not lose to Brown all year
Nadal will reach the quarterfinals of at least three majors
Nadal will win a title in Spain
Nadal will win multiple five-set matches
Nadal will win multiple titles on clay
Nishioka will reach a Masters main draw
No left-hander will be in the top 5 for aces
No Spaniard will finish in the top 100 for the first time in his career
Nobody born in the 1990s will reach a grand slam final
Nobody will reach their first grand slam final
Nobody will reach their first grand slam semifinal
Nobody will win their first grand slam title
Nobody younger than Djokovic will be ranked higher than him
Nobody younger than Nishikori will be ranked higher than him
Nobody younger than Raonic will be ranked higher than him
Nobody younger than Tomic will be ranked higher than him
North Americans will combine for at least 15,000 ranking points
Pavlasek will play reach a tour-level main draw
Ram will win a match on grass
Raonic will finish the year in the top 10
Rublev will win a Challenger Tour title
Sock will reach the top 20
Thiem will win 1000 points on return
Tomic will hit more aces than Federer
Tomic will reach the top 10 for the first time
Troicki will drop out of the top 25 after the Australian Open
Tsonga will hit 100 aces on clay
Tsonga will win multiple titles
Vesely will reach the second week of a grand slam
Wawrinka will have a losing record against the top 10
Wawrinka will leave the top 5 after Roland Garros
Wawrinka will lose a match to someone outside the top 100
Wawrinka will not reach a slam final
Wawrinka will win multiple five-set matches
Wawrinka will win multiple titles
Zverev will finish the year as the No. 1 German

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