For the third year in a row, the ATP World Tour Expert Panel Predictions are back on the Second Serb with two new panelists and four returners, including 2016 runner-up Joey Hanf.
Here are the full picks by the six panelists for the 2017 season on the ATP: ATP Expert Panel Predictions
A look at all things tennis. Not breaking news, but interesting information served with a little more spin. Follow me on twitter @JaredPine or on YouTube (https://www.youtube.com/user/pinejared).
Saturday, December 31, 2016
2017 ATP Year-End Top 100 Predictions
Kevin Craig and I are going head-to-head for the second year in a row, predicting the year-end top 100 in the ATP. Kevin won handily last year. Here are our predictions:
If there was any doubt that it's hard to guess the top 100 in the world 52 weeks in advance, consider the fact that Kevin and I only have three picks in common: Novak Djokovic at No. 1, Kyle Edmund at No. 29, and Marcel Granollers at No. 54. Considering how far off some of the other predictions are, the fact that Edmund and Granollers are the same on both of our lists are more of a sign of coincidence than our combined tennis knowledge.
Kevin's bold predictions: Roger Federer at No. 3, Lucas Pouille at No. 7, and Reilly Opelka at No. 75.
Jared's bold predictions: Rafael Nadal at No. 5, Grigor Dimitrov at No. 9, and Gerald Melzer at No. 41.
Kevin's pessimistic picks: Kei Nishikori at No. 9, Rafael Nadal at No. 12, and Tomas Berdych at No. 19.
Jared's pessimistic picks: Roger Federer at No. 14, Gael Monfils at No. 22, and Juan Martin del Potro at No. 35.
Missing from Kevin's top 100: Gerald Melzer, Florian Mayer, and Nikoloz Basilashvili
Missing from Jared's top 100: Nicolas Mahut, Robin Haase, and Tommy Robredo
United States Top 10 Predictions
Rank | Kevin Craig | Jared Pine |
1 | Novak Djokovic | Novak Djokovic |
2 | Milos Raonic | Andy Murray |
3 | Roger Federer | Milos Raonic |
4 | Andy Murray | Kei Nishikori |
5 | Stan Wawrinka | Rafael Nadal |
6 | Nick Kyrgios | Dominic Thiem |
7 | Lucas Pouille | Marin Cilic |
8 | Dominic Thiem | Nick Kyrgios |
9 | Kei Nishikori | Grigor Dimitrov |
10 | Juan Martin del Potro | Jack Sock |
11 | Marin Cilic | Stan Wawrinka |
12 | Rafael Nadal | David Goffin |
13 | Alex Zverev | Tomas Berdcyh |
14 | Jack Sock | Roger Federer |
15 | Jo-Wilfried Tsonga | Lucas Pouille |
16 | Grigor Dimitrov | Jo-Wilfried Tsonga |
17 | David Goffin | Alexander Zverev |
18 | Gael Monfils | Bernard Tomic |
19 | Tomas Berdych | Steve Johnson |
20 | Bernard Tomic | Roberto Bautista Agut |
21 | Steve Johnson | John Isner |
22 | Roberto Bautista Agut | Gael Monfils |
23 | Sam Querrey | Pablo Carreno Busta |
24 | Pablo Carreno Busta | Ricahrd Gasquet |
25 | David Ferrer | Borna Coric |
26 | Borna Coric | Pablo Cuevas |
27 | John Isner | Albert Ramos |
28 | Richard Gasquet | Viktor Troicki |
29 | Kyle Edmund | Kyle Edmund |
30 | Karen Khachanov | Andrey Kuznetsov |
31 | Jiri Vesely | Karen Khachanov |
32 | Federico Delbonis | Jiri Vesely |
33 | Martin Klizan | Gilles Simon |
34 | Mischa Zverev | Martin Klizan |
35 | Pablo Cuevas | Juan Martin del Potro |
36 | Fernando Verdasco | Taylor Fritz |
37 | Joao Sousa | Diego Schwartzman |
38 | Fabio Fognini | Sam Querrey |
39 | Gilles Simon | Kevin Anderson |
40 | Marcos Baghdatis | David Ferrer |
41 | Gilles Muller | Gerald Melzer |
42 | Feliciano Lopez | Jeremy Chardy |
43 | Kevin Anderson | Benoit Paire |
44 | Nicolas Almagro | Daniel Evans |
45 | Ivo Karlovic | Joao Sousa |
46 | Alex Dolgopolov | Hyeon Chung |
47 | Taylor Fritz | Alexandr Dolgopolov |
48 | Hyeon Chung | Adam Pavlasek |
49 | Thomaz Bellucci | Renzo Olivo |
50 | Albert Ramos-Vinolas | Jordan Thompson |
51 | Viktor Troicki | Philipp Kohlschreiber |
52 | Ryan Harrison | Pierre-Hugues Herbert |
53 | Facundo Bagnis | Gilles Muller |
54 | Marcel Granollers | Marcel Granollers |
55 | Guido Pella | Nicolas Almagro |
56 | Jeremy Chardy | Facundo Bagnis |
57 | Donald Young | Guido Pella |
58 | Juan Monaco | Adrian Mannarino |
59 | Nicolas Mahut | Jan-Lennard Struff |
60 | Daniil Medvedev | Damir Dzumhur |
61 | Jordan Thompson | Dusan Lajovic |
62 | Adam Pavlasek | Ricardas Berankis |
63 | Dustin Brown | Gastao Elias |
64 | Andrey Kuznetsov | Ryan Harrison |
65 | Frances Tiafoe | Mischa Zverev |
66 | Tommy Robredo | John Millman |
67 | Vasek Pospisil | Florian Mayer |
68 | Pierre-Hugues Herbert | Nikoloz Basilashvili |
69 | Diego Schwartzman | Daniil Medvedev |
70 | Phillip Kohlschreiber | Illya Marchenko |
71 | John Millman | Ivo Karlovic |
72 | Robin Haase | Fernando Verdasco |
73 | Stefan Kozlov | Fabio Fognini |
74 | Denis Istomin | Thomaz Bellucci |
75 | Reilly Opelka | Yoshihito Nishioka |
76 | Adrian Mannarino | Vasek Pospisil |
77 | Illya Marchenko | Mikhail Kukushkin |
78 | Guillermo Garcia-Lopez | Jared Donaldson |
79 | Paolo Lorenzi | Malek Jaziri |
80 | Julien Benneteau | Santiago Giraldo |
81 | Benoit Paire | Frances Tiafoe |
82 | Jared Donaldson | Feliciano Lopez |
83 | Andreas Seppi | Marcos Baghdatis |
84 | Yoshihito Nishioka | Andrey Rublev |
85 | Damir Dzumhur | Elias Ymer |
86 | Jan-Lennard Struff | Duckhee Lee |
87 | Mikhail Youzhny | Bjorn Fratangelo |
88 | Daniel Evans | Dustin Brown |
89 | Malek Jaziri | Taro Daniel |
90 | Radek Stepanek | Juan Monaco |
91 | Radu Albot | Ernesto Escobedo |
92 | Denis Kudla | Quentin Halys |
93 | Rajeev Ram | Laslo Djere |
94 | Peter Polansky | Noah Rubin |
95 | Lukas Rosol | Stefan Kozlov |
96 | Stefanos Tsitsipas | Michael Mmoh |
97 | Ernesto Escobedo | James Duckworth |
98 | Jozef Kovalik | Denis Shapovalov |
99 | Henri Laaksonen | Andreas Seppi |
100 | Jerzy Janowicz | Casper Ruud |
If there was any doubt that it's hard to guess the top 100 in the world 52 weeks in advance, consider the fact that Kevin and I only have three picks in common: Novak Djokovic at No. 1, Kyle Edmund at No. 29, and Marcel Granollers at No. 54. Considering how far off some of the other predictions are, the fact that Edmund and Granollers are the same on both of our lists are more of a sign of coincidence than our combined tennis knowledge.
Kevin's bold predictions: Roger Federer at No. 3, Lucas Pouille at No. 7, and Reilly Opelka at No. 75.
Jared's bold predictions: Rafael Nadal at No. 5, Grigor Dimitrov at No. 9, and Gerald Melzer at No. 41.
Kevin's pessimistic picks: Kei Nishikori at No. 9, Rafael Nadal at No. 12, and Tomas Berdych at No. 19.
Jared's pessimistic picks: Roger Federer at No. 14, Gael Monfils at No. 22, and Juan Martin del Potro at No. 35.
Missing from Kevin's top 100: Gerald Melzer, Florian Mayer, and Nikoloz Basilashvili
Missing from Jared's top 100: Nicolas Mahut, Robin Haase, and Tommy Robredo
United States Top 10 Predictions
Rank | Kevin Craig | Jared Pine |
1 | Jack Sock (14) | Jack Sock (10) |
2 | Steve Johnson (21) | Steve Johnson (19) |
3 | Sam Querrey (23) | John Isner (21) |
4 | John Isner (27) | Taylor Fritz (36) |
5 | Taylor Fritz (47) | Sam Querrey (38) |
6 | Ryan Harrison (52) | Ryan Harrison (64) |
7 | Donald Young (57) | Jared Donaldson (78) |
8 | Frances Tiafoe (65) | Frances Tiafoe (81) |
9 | Stefan Kozlov (73) | Bjorn Fratangelo (87) |
10 | Reilly Opelka (75) | Ernesto Escobedo (91) |
Opposite of last year, I'm the optimistic one for Sock, Johnson, and Isner, while Kevin has high hopes for Querrey, Harrison, and Young. Both of us are expecting good years from the players born in the final years of the 20th century.
Across the board, expectations for American tennis 2017 are higher than they have been in nearly a decade and its not without good reason. Kevin and I have different predictions about which Americans will have success in the next 52 weeks, but there is no doubt that this will be a good year for more than just a couple of players representing the stars and stripes.
Thursday, December 29, 2016
2016 Year-End Top 100 Predictions Revisited
Kevin Craig and I went head-to-head last year last year in predicting the year-end top 100 in the ATP and the top 10 among players from the United States. It was my fifth year predicting the top 100 and first time going head-to-head against Kevin.
Kevin thoroughly beat me overall. His predictions were off by an average of 33.5 spots with a median of 21 with three perfect predictions. I was off by an average of 34 and median of 24 without getting a single prediction correct.
I was doing well through the top nine, but once I picked Bernard Tomic to finish No. 10, there was no recovering. I also missed badly with Kevin Anderson and Aljaz Bedene. My good predictions were putting Martin Klizan at No. 32, Viktor Troicki at No. 25 and Federico Delbonis at No. 43.
The best pick by either of us was Kevin putting Diego Schwartzman perfectly at No. 52. He also correctly predicted Stan Wawrinka at No. 4 and Tomas Berdych at No. 10. Unfortunately, Kevin was a bit optimistic for Vasek Pospisil and Donald Young.
I got the better of Kevin in our predictions for United States tennis. My picks were off by an average of 25.3 spots, while Kevin was off by 35.9 spots. My lack of optimism for Isner, Sock and Young served me well. I also picked Ryan Harrison to finish No. 85 overall. I also had Querrey and Fratangelo just a little bit higher.
Kevin did well to predict Donaldson at No. 99 and Talor Fritz at No. 86. Those two players will be the future of American tennis and the fact that Kevin so accurately predicted them is good news, because it means they are living up to the hype. That wasn't the case for the so-called "lost boys."
In my five years of predicting the year-end top 100, this was my worst year. The first three years, my average margin of error was slightly above 31 all three years. In 2015, I had my best score ever of 25, so the score of 34 is a good indicator of the level of unpredictability in 2016. However, if you ask most tennis fans, 2016 was the worst year on the ATP from a fans' perspective in recent memory, proving that unpredictability is bad for the game.
Kevin thoroughly beat me overall. His predictions were off by an average of 33.5 spots with a median of 21 with three perfect predictions. I was off by an average of 34 and median of 24 without getting a single prediction correct.
I was doing well through the top nine, but once I picked Bernard Tomic to finish No. 10, there was no recovering. I also missed badly with Kevin Anderson and Aljaz Bedene. My good predictions were putting Martin Klizan at No. 32, Viktor Troicki at No. 25 and Federico Delbonis at No. 43.
The best pick by either of us was Kevin putting Diego Schwartzman perfectly at No. 52. He also correctly predicted Stan Wawrinka at No. 4 and Tomas Berdych at No. 10. Unfortunately, Kevin was a bit optimistic for Vasek Pospisil and Donald Young.
I got the better of Kevin in our predictions for United States tennis. My picks were off by an average of 25.3 spots, while Kevin was off by 35.9 spots. My lack of optimism for Isner, Sock and Young served me well. I also picked Ryan Harrison to finish No. 85 overall. I also had Querrey and Fratangelo just a little bit higher.
Kevin did well to predict Donaldson at No. 99 and Talor Fritz at No. 86. Those two players will be the future of American tennis and the fact that Kevin so accurately predicted them is good news, because it means they are living up to the hype. That wasn't the case for the so-called "lost boys."
In my five years of predicting the year-end top 100, this was my worst year. The first three years, my average margin of error was slightly above 31 all three years. In 2015, I had my best score ever of 25, so the score of 34 is a good indicator of the level of unpredictability in 2016. However, if you ask most tennis fans, 2016 was the worst year on the ATP from a fans' perspective in recent memory, proving that unpredictability is bad for the game.
Tuesday, December 27, 2016
Measuring Year-End Finals Dominance
Since the 1970 Masters Grand Prix, the ATP World Tour has wrapped up each season with a small tournament featuring the top players on the tour every year. The format of the tournament has changed slightly over the years, but the current format of the World Tour Finals is the most commonly used format.
As I've done with Grand Slams and with Masters Series 1000 events, I wanted to look at who are the best players in the tournament's history, comparing players from every generation by calculating the ranking points earned by players at the event based on the current ranking points system.
That means every round robin win is worth 200 points, every semifinal win is worth 400, and winning the championship match is worth 500. For the years with a normal bracket tournament, a quarterfinal finish is worth 200, semifinals worth 400, final worth 800 and a title is worth 1300. In 1970 and 1971, only two players advanced from the round robin stage, so there was no opportunity to earn the 400 points in the semifinal matches.
Before getting into the lists, here are a few records at the tournament.
Most consecutive appearances at the tournament: Federer (14)
-Longest active streak: Djokovic (10)
Most consecutive appearances in the final: Lendl (9)
-Longest active streak: Djokovic (5)
Most consecutive titles won: Djokovic (4)
-Longest active streak: Murray (1)
Most times reaching the tournament: Federer (14)
Most times reaching the final: Federer (10)
Most titles won: Federer (6)
Most years between first and last appearance: Connors (15)
Most years between first and last time reaching the final: Federer (12)
Most years between first and last title: Sampras (8)
Total Ranking Points Earned
1. Roger Federer 14,200
2. Ivan Lendl 11,900
3. Pete Sampras 9700
3. Boris Becker 9700
5. Novak Djokovic 9100
6. Ilie Nastase 6600
7. John McEnroe 6100
8. Andre Agassi 5500
9. Jimmy Connors 4700
10. Bjorn Borg 4600
11. Stefan Edberg 4300
12. Guillermo Vilas 3900
13. Lleyton Hewitt 3800
14. Andy Murray 3700
15. Rafael Nadal 3600
16. Stan Smith 3100
16. Nikolay Davydenko 3100
18. Mats Wilander 2400
18. Yevgeny Kafelnikov 2400
20. Carlos Moya 2200
21. Manuel Orantes 2100
22. Arthur Ashe 2000
23. Jim Courier 1800
23. David Ferrer 1800
25. David Nalbandian 1700
26. Vitas Gerulaitis 1600
26. Brian Gottfried 1600
26. Juan Martin del Potro 1600
26. Goran Ivanisevic 1600
26. Andy Roddick 1600
26. Michael Chang 1600
32. Michael Stich 1500
32. Alex Corretja 1500
32. Gustavo Kuerten 1500
35. Stan Wawrinka 1400
Ranking Points Earned per Tournament
1. Ilie Nastase 1320
2. Roger Federer 1014
3. Tom Okker 1000
4. Ivan Lendl 992
5. Lleyton Hewitt 950
6. Bjorn Borg 920
7. Novak Djokovic 910
8. Pete Sampras 882
8. Boris Becker 882
10. Vitas Gerulaitis 800
The obvious issue with going based ranking points per tournament is the advantage it gives to players who played in less tournaments such as Tom Okker who reached the final in the only year he played. The issue with going off of total points is that is that it gives an advantage to players for having longer careers. The best way to analyze dominance at the tournament is to find a balance of the two.
The best way to do that is to take the total ranking points earned but take away 130 points (10% of the amount of points for winning the title with one round robin loss) for each year playing in the tournament.
Total Ranking Points Adjusted
1. Roger Federer 12,380
2. Ivan Lendl 10,340
3. Pete Sampras 8270
3. Boris Becker 8270
5. Novak Djokovic 7800
6. Ilie Nastase 5950
7. John McEnroe 5060
8. Andre Agassi 4200
9. Bjorn Borg 3950
10. Lleyton Hewitt 3280
11. Jimmy Connors 3270
12. Stefan Edberg 3260
13. Guillermo Vilas 2860
14. Rafael Nadal 2690
15. Andy Murray 2660
16. Stan Smith 2580
17. Nikolay Davydenko 2450
18. Mats Wilander 1620
19. Arthur Ashe 1610
20. Carlos Moya 1550
This tournament serves as a unique test for greatness. In every other tournament, the best players don't play each other until the later rounds. That means that if a player doesn't feel 100 percent physically or doesn't like the conditions, they likely will never play against their rivals. However, in the year-end championships, playing against the top players is inevitable. This tournament is the only true test of who is the best of the best.
Lendl is someone that is underrated on most GOAT lists, but on these lists he does very well. On the flip side, Nadal and Connors are both surprisingly low on these lists. Becker and Sampras both had the exact same results at the tournament
As I've done with Grand Slams and with Masters Series 1000 events, I wanted to look at who are the best players in the tournament's history, comparing players from every generation by calculating the ranking points earned by players at the event based on the current ranking points system.
That means every round robin win is worth 200 points, every semifinal win is worth 400, and winning the championship match is worth 500. For the years with a normal bracket tournament, a quarterfinal finish is worth 200, semifinals worth 400, final worth 800 and a title is worth 1300. In 1970 and 1971, only two players advanced from the round robin stage, so there was no opportunity to earn the 400 points in the semifinal matches.
Before getting into the lists, here are a few records at the tournament.
Most consecutive appearances at the tournament: Federer (14)
-Longest active streak: Djokovic (10)
Most consecutive appearances in the final: Lendl (9)
-Longest active streak: Djokovic (5)
Most consecutive titles won: Djokovic (4)
-Longest active streak: Murray (1)
Most times reaching the tournament: Federer (14)
Most times reaching the final: Federer (10)
Most titles won: Federer (6)
Most years between first and last appearance: Connors (15)
Most years between first and last time reaching the final: Federer (12)
Most years between first and last title: Sampras (8)
Total Ranking Points Earned
1. Roger Federer 14,200
2. Ivan Lendl 11,900
3. Pete Sampras 9700
3. Boris Becker 9700
5. Novak Djokovic 9100
6. Ilie Nastase 6600
7. John McEnroe 6100
8. Andre Agassi 5500
9. Jimmy Connors 4700
10. Bjorn Borg 4600
11. Stefan Edberg 4300
12. Guillermo Vilas 3900
13. Lleyton Hewitt 3800
14. Andy Murray 3700
15. Rafael Nadal 3600
16. Stan Smith 3100
16. Nikolay Davydenko 3100
18. Mats Wilander 2400
18. Yevgeny Kafelnikov 2400
20. Carlos Moya 2200
21. Manuel Orantes 2100
22. Arthur Ashe 2000
23. Jim Courier 1800
23. David Ferrer 1800
25. David Nalbandian 1700
26. Vitas Gerulaitis 1600
26. Brian Gottfried 1600
26. Juan Martin del Potro 1600
26. Goran Ivanisevic 1600
26. Andy Roddick 1600
26. Michael Chang 1600
32. Michael Stich 1500
32. Alex Corretja 1500
32. Gustavo Kuerten 1500
35. Stan Wawrinka 1400
Ranking Points Earned per Tournament
1. Ilie Nastase 1320
2. Roger Federer 1014
3. Tom Okker 1000
4. Ivan Lendl 992
5. Lleyton Hewitt 950
6. Bjorn Borg 920
7. Novak Djokovic 910
8. Pete Sampras 882
8. Boris Becker 882
10. Vitas Gerulaitis 800
The obvious issue with going based ranking points per tournament is the advantage it gives to players who played in less tournaments such as Tom Okker who reached the final in the only year he played. The issue with going off of total points is that is that it gives an advantage to players for having longer careers. The best way to analyze dominance at the tournament is to find a balance of the two.
The best way to do that is to take the total ranking points earned but take away 130 points (10% of the amount of points for winning the title with one round robin loss) for each year playing in the tournament.
Total Ranking Points Adjusted
1. Roger Federer 12,380
2. Ivan Lendl 10,340
3. Pete Sampras 8270
3. Boris Becker 8270
5. Novak Djokovic 7800
6. Ilie Nastase 5950
7. John McEnroe 5060
8. Andre Agassi 4200
9. Bjorn Borg 3950
10. Lleyton Hewitt 3280
11. Jimmy Connors 3270
12. Stefan Edberg 3260
13. Guillermo Vilas 2860
14. Rafael Nadal 2690
15. Andy Murray 2660
16. Stan Smith 2580
17. Nikolay Davydenko 2450
18. Mats Wilander 1620
19. Arthur Ashe 1610
20. Carlos Moya 1550
This tournament serves as a unique test for greatness. In every other tournament, the best players don't play each other until the later rounds. That means that if a player doesn't feel 100 percent physically or doesn't like the conditions, they likely will never play against their rivals. However, in the year-end championships, playing against the top players is inevitable. This tournament is the only true test of who is the best of the best.
Lendl is someone that is underrated on most GOAT lists, but on these lists he does very well. On the flip side, Nadal and Connors are both surprisingly low on these lists. Becker and Sampras both had the exact same results at the tournament
Tuesday, December 13, 2016
France takes over as the top country on the ATP
For the last decade, Spain has dominated men's tennis with more representation at the top of the ATP than any other country, but in 2016, that domination came to an end. I've been forecasting the downfall of Spanish tennis for a while, but it has taken longer than expected and even now has only just begun and it began with France becoming the ATP's new best country.
Every few months I release my power rankings of the top tennis countries on the ATP based on a simple formula: the sum of ranking points earned in the last 52 weeks by all members of that country ranked inside the top 140. Why 140? I honestly don't have a good answer, but I'm stuck with it for the sake of consistency.
Ever since I started tracking these rankings in 2012, Spain has been the No. 1 country every time, while France and Serbia battled for a distant No. 2. However, as the Spanish stars have started to age, there haven't been any young Spaniards to take their place, leading to the predictable downfall of Spanish tennis.
Meanwhile, Serbia's Novak Djokovic and Great Britain's Andy Murray have split time dominating the ATP in 2016, while receiving very little support from their countrymen. Switzerland also took a hit with Roger Federer missing a large chunk of the 2016 season.
All of this left the door wide open for another country to grab the No. 1 position and France did so with its most impressive season since 2013. In the year-end rankings, France had four players in the top 20, including a couple surprises in the form of Gael Monfils and Lucas Pouille. They were joined by the reliably successful Richard Gasquet and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga.
Overall, France placed 13 players inside the top 140 of the year-end rankings, which is the most since the end of the 2014 season. The United States actually led the world in players ranked inside the top 140 with 14, but John Isner was ranked No. 19, leading all Americans.
Here are the previous year-end rankings before this year.
Every few months I release my power rankings of the top tennis countries on the ATP based on a simple formula: the sum of ranking points earned in the last 52 weeks by all members of that country ranked inside the top 140. Why 140? I honestly don't have a good answer, but I'm stuck with it for the sake of consistency.
Ever since I started tracking these rankings in 2012, Spain has been the No. 1 country every time, while France and Serbia battled for a distant No. 2. However, as the Spanish stars have started to age, there haven't been any young Spaniards to take their place, leading to the predictable downfall of Spanish tennis.
Meanwhile, Serbia's Novak Djokovic and Great Britain's Andy Murray have split time dominating the ATP in 2016, while receiving very little support from their countrymen. Switzerland also took a hit with Roger Federer missing a large chunk of the 2016 season.
All of this left the door wide open for another country to grab the No. 1 position and France did so with its most impressive season since 2013. In the year-end rankings, France had four players in the top 20, including a couple surprises in the form of Gael Monfils and Lucas Pouille. They were joined by the reliably successful Richard Gasquet and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga.
Overall, France placed 13 players inside the top 140 of the year-end rankings, which is the most since the end of the 2014 season. The United States actually led the world in players ranked inside the top 140 with 14, but John Isner was ranked No. 19, leading all Americans.
Here are the previous year-end rankings before this year.
No. | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 |
1. | Spain | Spain | Spain | Spain |
2. | Serbia | France | France | Serbia |
3. | France | Serbia | Switzerland | France |
4. | Switzerland | Argentina | Serbia | Switzerland |
5. | Argentina | Germany | Czech Republic | United States |
6. | United States | United States | United States | Great Britain |
7. | Germany | Switzerland | Germany | Japan |
8. | Great Britain | Czech Republic | Croatia | Australia |
9. | Czech Republic | Russia | Japan | Czech Republic |
10. | Italy | Great Britain | Argentina | Italy |
11. | Russia | Canada | Canada | Croatia |
12. | Croatia | Italy | Great Britain | Argentina |
13. | Japan | Australia | Australia | Germany |
14. | Australia | Poland | Italy | Belgium |
15. | Canada | Croatia | Bulgaria | Canada |
16. | Belgium | Japan | Russia | Russia |
17. | Ukraine | Austria | Latvia | Ukraine |
18. | Netherlands | Netherlands | Colombia | South Africa |
19. | Brazil | Ukraine | Ukraine | Austria |
20. | Slovakia | Colombia | Austria | Slovakia |
The countries that are well-represented in the top 100 such as Spain, France, United States, and Italy don't tend to jump around a lot on this list. Argentina is the exception to that, taking a major dip in 2014 and 2015 with the injury to Juan Martin del Potro mixed with the retirement of several players. On the other hand, countries like Great Britain, Switzerland and Japan bounce around on this list a lot because the success or failure of one player determines the ranking of the entire country. Latvia, Bulgaria, Belgium and South Africa are all extreme examples of that.
Here are the final rankings for the 2016 season.
1. France (18,100) - For the first time ever, France is No. 1 on this list, knocking off Spain with 13 players inside the top 140, but more importantly four players inside the top 20. The resurgence of Gael Monfils was the top story out of France in 2016 and it began with his run to the final in Monte Carlo, where he met fellow Frenchman Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the semifinals. The other big story was Lucas Pouille, who made the most of a lucky loser in Rome to catapult the best season of his career so far. Nicolas Mahut was another big story in French tennis with his improbably comeback after being ranked as low as No. 240 just three years ago. At age 34, Mahut won his fourth career title, had a winning record and finished the year inside the top 40. Stephane Robert and Paul Henri Mathieu also defied their age to put together very impressive 2016 seasons. It's still to be determined how long France can remain No. 1 since Pouille and Pierre-Hugues Herbert are the only Frenchmen inside the top 150 that are less than 27 years old right now. There don't seem to be any challengers on the horizon though, which will give France some time to let some of its young talent to develop before picking up the torch.
2. Spain (16,637) - It's only the beginning of what I've been forecasting as a massive downfall for Spanish tennis, which will struggle to simply stay in the top 20 on this list. The average age of the 12 Spaniards in the top 140 is more than 30 years, meaning that most of them will be retiring in the next five years and there is nobody to take their place. The Spaniards have shown that their downfall is taking longer than anticipated, which only means it will be more drastic when it finally hits. A lot of Spaniards are defying their age with the amount of success they had in 2016, but that is only delaying the inevitable. Spain might be No. 2 right now but it will be decades before we see Spain contend for No. 1 again.
3. Great Britain (14,739) - This is Great Britain's highest ranking since I began tracking this list and I'm willing to bet that it's the highest ranking since the ATP began using computer rankings in 1973. Andy Murray became the first Brit ever to become No. 1 in the World and unlike previous years, there were other Brits helping boost the nation's ranking. The 21-year old Kyle Edmund reached a career-high ranking of No. 40 in October and finished the year No. 45 with a 21-20 record. Daniel Evans also reached a career-high ranking this year and finished the season ranked No. 66.
4. Serbia (13,792) - To be No. 4 in the world as a country and have two grand slam titles is a great season for any country other than Serbia, which is actually at its lowest points total in two years. The tennis world grew accustomed to Djokovic's dominance and the year-end No. 1 ranking seemed like a foregone conclusion once he won Roland Garros. Djokovic went on to win Canada and reach the final of the US Open and the World Tour Finals, but by his standards, that was a slump. Djokovic won't regain the No. 1 ranking any time soon, but Serbia should be able to stay comfortably in the top four for a while.
5. United States (11,731) - If anyone is going to pass Serbia in the upcoming months, the United States would be a good candidate considering the wealth of young talent. Ivo Karlovic is proving right now that age isn't much of a factor for players with big serves, so John Isner and Sam Querrey will be fine for a while longer. Other than those two, nobody else has even reached their peak yet. The United States can only go up in 2017. At some point, the United States will pass Spain. The only question is if 2017 is the year that happens. I'm going to say yes.
6. Argentina (8796) - With Juan Martin del Potro back from injury, Argentina had a fantastic 2016 season. Federico Delbonis, Diego Schwartzman, and Facundo Bagnis showed off Argentina's depth. The rankings don't fully reflect the success of the Davis Cup champions, since both the Davis Cup and the Olympics no longer reward ranking points. However, the rankings always get it right with time, so Argentina could be in five digits not long from now.
7. Switzerland (8394) - It's weird to see Stan Wawrinka ranked ahead of Roger Federer. The US Open champion is the reason Switzerland is in the top 10 of this list. Federer missed a large chunk of the season, but Wawrinka didn't miss a beat. Hopefully both players can play to the best of their abilities at the same time in 2017.
8. Germany (7223) - Germany was once known for its depth, but that has all but disappeared. Alexander Zverev is already the German No. 1 at the age of 19. He is 14 years younger than any other German in the top 50. With Boris Becker ending his working relationship with Djokovic, it would be very interesting to see Becker in the Zverev camp in 2017.
9. Japan (6992) - Japan's youth is exciting, but it lacks depth. The efforts of Kei Nishikori are the main reason for Japan being No. 9 on this list. He is arguably the best player in the world when he is healthy. Even if he misses some big tournaments in 2017, he shouldn't have any issues staying in the top five of the rankings. Meanwhile, Yoshihito Nishioka and Taro Daniel can still improve their ranking a lot.
10. Croatia (6390) - The 2016 season was a special one for Croatia. Marin Cilic finished the year with a career-high ranking at No. 6. Ivo Karlovic didn't let age stop him. At 37 years old, he finished No. 20 in the world. On the other end of the spectrum, Borna Coric was the second youngest player in the top 50, finishing No. 48. This is Croatia's second top-10 finish in three years.
11. Canada (6358) - Milos Raonic had an incredible 2016 season, finishing with a career-high ranking of No. 3. Still, he only won one title all year. The Canadian is still struggling in the big moments. He reached his first grand slam final, but was never competitive in the the match. In his next chance against Murray, he squandered match points. Unfortunately, those will be the most memorable moments from his incredible 2016 campaign.
12. Australia (5856) - I thought the 2016 season would go better for Australia, but Bernard Tomic showed little improvement, Nick Kyrgios had a predictably unpredictable season, and Thanasi Kokkinakis missed the whole year with an injury.
13. Czech Republic (5695) - Jiri Vesely beat Djokovic in the biggest upset of the year, but it was a quiet year for the Czechs apart from that.
14. Russia (4860) - Karen Khachanov is the real deal. He is going to be good for a while. Roman Safiullin is healthy now too, so the future of Russian tennis is bright once again.
15. Austria (4143) - Dominic Thiem was one of the most fascinating players to watch in 2016. He played a packed schedule and racked up wins quickly. Everyone else wants to tell him how to schedule better, but I think he knows what he's doing better than anybody else, because it's working.
16. Belgium (3864)
17. Italy (3649)
18. Brazil (2549)
19. Bulgaria (2035)
20. Ukraine (2007)
21. Uruguay (1780)
22. Portugal (1705)
23. Slovenia (1444)
24. Luxembourg (1255)
25. Slovakia (1230)
26. Cyprus (1140)
27. Tunisia (814)
28. Netherlands (795)
29. Chinese Taipei (754)
30. South Africa (735)
31. Bosnia & Herzegovina (699)
32. Kazakhstan (634)
33. Colombia (632)
34. Lithuania (630)
35. Georgia (618)
36. Israel (616)
37. Moldova (614)
38. Dominican Republic (586)
39. Korea (571)
40. Uzbekistan (492)
41. Romania (457)
4. Serbia (13,792) - To be No. 4 in the world as a country and have two grand slam titles is a great season for any country other than Serbia, which is actually at its lowest points total in two years. The tennis world grew accustomed to Djokovic's dominance and the year-end No. 1 ranking seemed like a foregone conclusion once he won Roland Garros. Djokovic went on to win Canada and reach the final of the US Open and the World Tour Finals, but by his standards, that was a slump. Djokovic won't regain the No. 1 ranking any time soon, but Serbia should be able to stay comfortably in the top four for a while.
5. United States (11,731) - If anyone is going to pass Serbia in the upcoming months, the United States would be a good candidate considering the wealth of young talent. Ivo Karlovic is proving right now that age isn't much of a factor for players with big serves, so John Isner and Sam Querrey will be fine for a while longer. Other than those two, nobody else has even reached their peak yet. The United States can only go up in 2017. At some point, the United States will pass Spain. The only question is if 2017 is the year that happens. I'm going to say yes.
6. Argentina (8796) - With Juan Martin del Potro back from injury, Argentina had a fantastic 2016 season. Federico Delbonis, Diego Schwartzman, and Facundo Bagnis showed off Argentina's depth. The rankings don't fully reflect the success of the Davis Cup champions, since both the Davis Cup and the Olympics no longer reward ranking points. However, the rankings always get it right with time, so Argentina could be in five digits not long from now.
7. Switzerland (8394) - It's weird to see Stan Wawrinka ranked ahead of Roger Federer. The US Open champion is the reason Switzerland is in the top 10 of this list. Federer missed a large chunk of the season, but Wawrinka didn't miss a beat. Hopefully both players can play to the best of their abilities at the same time in 2017.
8. Germany (7223) - Germany was once known for its depth, but that has all but disappeared. Alexander Zverev is already the German No. 1 at the age of 19. He is 14 years younger than any other German in the top 50. With Boris Becker ending his working relationship with Djokovic, it would be very interesting to see Becker in the Zverev camp in 2017.
9. Japan (6992) - Japan's youth is exciting, but it lacks depth. The efforts of Kei Nishikori are the main reason for Japan being No. 9 on this list. He is arguably the best player in the world when he is healthy. Even if he misses some big tournaments in 2017, he shouldn't have any issues staying in the top five of the rankings. Meanwhile, Yoshihito Nishioka and Taro Daniel can still improve their ranking a lot.
10. Croatia (6390) - The 2016 season was a special one for Croatia. Marin Cilic finished the year with a career-high ranking at No. 6. Ivo Karlovic didn't let age stop him. At 37 years old, he finished No. 20 in the world. On the other end of the spectrum, Borna Coric was the second youngest player in the top 50, finishing No. 48. This is Croatia's second top-10 finish in three years.
11. Canada (6358) - Milos Raonic had an incredible 2016 season, finishing with a career-high ranking of No. 3. Still, he only won one title all year. The Canadian is still struggling in the big moments. He reached his first grand slam final, but was never competitive in the the match. In his next chance against Murray, he squandered match points. Unfortunately, those will be the most memorable moments from his incredible 2016 campaign.
12. Australia (5856) - I thought the 2016 season would go better for Australia, but Bernard Tomic showed little improvement, Nick Kyrgios had a predictably unpredictable season, and Thanasi Kokkinakis missed the whole year with an injury.
13. Czech Republic (5695) - Jiri Vesely beat Djokovic in the biggest upset of the year, but it was a quiet year for the Czechs apart from that.
14. Russia (4860) - Karen Khachanov is the real deal. He is going to be good for a while. Roman Safiullin is healthy now too, so the future of Russian tennis is bright once again.
15. Austria (4143) - Dominic Thiem was one of the most fascinating players to watch in 2016. He played a packed schedule and racked up wins quickly. Everyone else wants to tell him how to schedule better, but I think he knows what he's doing better than anybody else, because it's working.
16. Belgium (3864)
17. Italy (3649)
18. Brazil (2549)
19. Bulgaria (2035)
20. Ukraine (2007)
21. Uruguay (1780)
22. Portugal (1705)
23. Slovenia (1444)
24. Luxembourg (1255)
25. Slovakia (1230)
26. Cyprus (1140)
27. Tunisia (814)
28. Netherlands (795)
29. Chinese Taipei (754)
30. South Africa (735)
31. Bosnia & Herzegovina (699)
32. Kazakhstan (634)
33. Colombia (632)
34. Lithuania (630)
35. Georgia (618)
36. Israel (616)
37. Moldova (614)
38. Dominican Republic (586)
39. Korea (571)
40. Uzbekistan (492)
41. Romania (457)
Saturday, December 10, 2016
How will the 2016 ATP season be remembered?
Every tennis season on the ATP World Tour is parked by
unique characteristics. It could rivalries, matches, scandals or many other
things. The 2016 season was marked by an accomplishment, but it may be a few
years until fans, experts and commentators recognize this accomplishment as the
defining moment of this season.
Right now, many people would say Andy Murray’s ascent to No.
1 in the world is defining accomplishment of this calendar year. It just seems
right that all four members of the Big Four have reached the top of the tennis
rankings. It’s fitting. It’s also the most recent big tennis story in our
minds.
I think that with time, though, the perspective will change
and the accomplishment that defines 2016 will be Novak Djokovic’s completion of
the non-calendar Grand Slam, joining Don Budge and Rod Laver as the only
players to win the Australian Open, Roland Garros, Wimbledon and US Open
consecutively.
Djokovic’s win in the final over the eventual year-end No. 1
completed what was without doubt the most dominant 12-most stretch of tennis in
the history of the sport, because unlike Laver and Budge, Djokovic won the slam
on three different surfaces. On top of that, he completed the slam at the only
major he had never previously won.
Add to that what Djokovic had done outside the majors. He
won five of the last nine ATP Masters Series 1000 events and reached the final
at three others and he was in possession of the Year-End Finals trophy. In
total, Djokovic had racked up a record 16,950 ranking points, which was more
than the No. 2 and No. 3 players combined.
Certainly, Murray’s climb to No. 1 and the incredible return
of Juan Martin del Potro will also be clear memories from the 2016 season. The defining
moment, however, continues to be when Djokovic drew a heart on the Parisian
clay and laughed in it while Gustavo Kuerten cheered with a smile from the
stands. That was the moment that summarized the most dominant 12-month stretch
of tennis that the sport had ever seen.
This was a moment that could have been and should have been
one that transcended sports. It doesn’t happen often, but occasionally in
sports, there is a moment so big that everyone stops to watch whether you are a
fan of that sport or not.
These kinds of moments don’t happen often, but I can think
of a few in my lifetime. It happened when Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa chased
Babe Ruth’s home runs record. It happened when Tiger Woods won the 2008 US
Open. It happened with Michael Phelps and Usain Bolt at the 2008 Beijing
Olympics. It also happened at Super Bowl XLII when the Patriots tried to
complete the perfect season.
Though to a smaller degree, there have been a couple of
those moments in tennis when the sport transcended the entire sports world.
Though some tennis fans may want to forget it, the Isner-Mahut match at
Wimbledon did grab the attention of even non-tennis fans. Another was last year
when Serena Williams went for the calendar year Grand Slam after having already
won her second Serena Slam at Wimbledon. Murray becoming the first Brit to win
Wimbledon in 2013 was another big one.
So why wasn’t Djokovic’s inspirational moment in Paris one
that transcended tennis and showcased the sport to millions of people who
wouldn’t otherwise tune into a tennis match? Some of it does have to do with
Djokovic being overshadowed by Williams’ own non-calendar slam just 11 months
before. Another reason was that to some degree, a Djokovic victory was expected
and some people had become bored with Djokovic always dominating.
However, the main reason this moment didn’t get the
recognition it deserved was because of lazy journalism. Rather than write about
the history that was on the line for Djokovic, they decided to recycle old
story lines, because that was easier to do.
Each of the previous three years, Djokovic arrived in Paris
in search of the Roland Garros trophy. Three years in a row, he failed to win
that trophy. Throughout 2014 and 2015, journalists basically renamed Roland
Garros as “the elusive major” or “the one that eludes Djokovic.”
It was the same story line they had used with Andre Agassi
and Roger Federer in previous years, so a copy-and-paste was enough to make a
good story in 2014 and 2015. However, 2016 was different and should have been
treated differently, but the sport’s most prominent writers stuck to old story
lines, while the pursuit of the non-calendar Grand Slam was just an
afterthought.
New York Times’ Christopher Clarey buried this paragraph
more than halfway into a long preview for the 2016 Roland Garros final: Djokovic is not only trying to join the
elite club of seven men who whave won all four Grand Slam singles titles. He is
also trying to complete a so-called Djoker Slam by winning his fourth major in
a row.
Compare that to how the New York Times previewed Roger
Federer’s pursuit of the non-calendar Grand Slam in 2007, placing this
paragraph prominently near the front of the match preview: This time, yet again, Federer has a chance to become the first man
since Rod Laver in 1969 to hold all four Grand Slam titles at once.
There are a few differences here beyond just where the
paragraphed is placed in the article. First, there is no mention of Federer
going for a Career Grand Slam followed by a mention of the non-calendar Grand
Slam as if it were a secondary accomplishment. Second, the 2007 article gives
the historical context for the achievement that Federer was one win away
from, pointing out that nobody had done
it since Rod Laver.
And the New York Times wasn’t alone. All of the top-tier
tennis journalists in the United States fell into this trap. Compare the way
Sports Illustrated’s Jon Wertheim covered the two events in the deck of his
articles.
2007: Second-ranked
Rafael Nadal defended his French Open title by continuing his domination of No.
1 Roger Federer and spoiling his rival’s Grand Slam bid
Notice: no distinction here between calendar and
non-calendar, simply ‘Grand Slam.’
2016 before the match: The
11-time Grand Slam champion opens up about his love for the one major that has
eluded him
2016 after the match: This
was his 13th title on clay but Sunday’s win was obviously the
biggest one and now we can discuss Djokovic without having to make mention of
the French Open title that’s eluded him.
To begin with, nobody was making Wertheim use the word ‘eluded’
or ‘elusive’ repeatedly or any of his mentions to tennis demons and tennis
karma surrounding Djokovic in Paris. Also, there is not even a mention of the
non-calendar Grand Slam or anything slightly resembling an acknowledgement of
the ultimate accomplishment in the sport.
Every journalist learns the inverted pyramid in their first year of studying journalism. What the inverted pyramid means is that journalists put what they consider to be the most important and attention-worthy information at the top of their story and less important information at the bottom. Nearly every single article about Djokovic’s triumph in Paris mentions “Djokovic completed the career Grand Slam” before saying “Djokovic has won four consecutive majors.”
But which one is more impressive? Djokovic is only one of
three players to hold all four major titles at the same time, while eight
different players have completed the Career Grand Slam. The obvious answer is
that the Grand Slam, whether won in a calendar year or any other 12-month
period is more impressive than winning all four majors at any point over the
course of a career.
If tennis journalists had done their job correctly and
included some mention of four in a row, the Djoker Slam (or whatever you want
to call it) in the lead, then this piece of history wouldn’t have been so
massively overlooked. No wonder television producers didn’t make any features
on sports shows about Djokovic’s pursuit of history, when they had to dig
through more than half of a New York Times article to even find out that
history was on the line.
Wertheim and Clarey are easy to point to, because they are
the two most note-worthy journalists in tennis in the United States, but they
aren’t the only ones. In a big way, tennis journalists missed a massive
opportunity to help the sport reach the general sports fan. That is, of course,
the main way that we get our sport to grow outside of its niche.
We don’t know when the next opportunity will come where
tennis has the chance to transcend the entire sports world, but when it does
come, I’m going to be watching to see which journalists are covering the events
correctly.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)