Ranking By Tournament

I want to update a stat that I shared in the past. It is the ranking of Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer, and Rafael Nadal at all 14 of the biggest events on the ATP Calendar. What this stat does is it looks at where a player ranks in the history of Indian Wells for example based on career ranking points accumulated (using the current ranking formula). Here are the rankings of each of the three best players in tennis history at each tournament.

Novak Djokovic

First (2): Shanghai, Paris

Second (9): Australian Open, Indian Wells, Miami, Monte Carlo, Rome, 

                   Roland Garros, Canada, Cincinnati, Year-End Finals

Third (2): Madrid, Wimbledon

Fourth (1): US Open

Roger Federer

First (5): Australian Open, Indian Wells, Wimbledon, Cincinnati, Year-End Finals

Second (2): Madrid, US Open

Third (5): Miami, Rome, Roland Garros, Shanghai

Fourth (3): Monte Carlo, Canada, Paris

Rafael Nadal

First (5): Monte Carlo, Madrid, Rome, Roland Garros, Canada

Second (0):

Third (1): Indian Wells

Fourth (2): Shanghai, Australian Open

Fifth or lower (6): Miami, Wimbledon, Cincinnati, US Open, Paris, Year-End Finals

Nadal and Federer are each the best player in over one third of all of the most important events on tour. Djokovic ranks among the top-2 at 11 of the 14 events. Both Federer and Djokovic rank in the top-4 at every event, and if Djokovic reaches the semifinals at the US Open, he will be in the top-3 for every tournament.

Over the next 12 months, Djokovic has a strong chance to move up one spot at Wimbledon (needs to reach the final), US Open (needs to reach the semifinals) and the Australian Open (needs to reach the quarterfinals or better if Federer does well). He also has a chance to retake the lead in Canada depending on how well Nadal performs at that tournament.

Nadal, over the next 12 months, has a chance to catch Djokovic at Indian Wells if he wins the tournament and Djokovic loses in the semifinals or earlier. He could also catch Federer for fourth place in Paris if he reaches the final there. If Nadal reaches the semifinals at the Australian Open, he would move into third place, but he is stuck in fifth place or lower at Wimbledon and the US Open at least for this year.

Federer doesn't have much room to improve. He could perhaps catch Djokovic in Miami or Agassi in Canada, but it is mathematically impossible to change his ranking at any of the majors. The best thing Federer can do is continue to perform well to make it harder for Nadal and Djokovic to catch up to him.

The GOAT Debate & Short Memory

Right now, there are a wave of people admitting for the first time that Novak Djokovic is the GOAT after having won his second Roland Garros title to become the first player in the Open Era to complete the Double Career Grand Slam just a few months after having broken Roger Federer's record for Weeks at No. 1.

Djokovic is also very close to breaking two other important records that belong to Federer and Rafael Nadal. He needs one more grand slam title and two more wins over top-10 ranked opponents to tie the career records for both of those stats. He also has winning head-to-head records against both Federer and Nadal as well as at least two titles at every single Elite 14 event, while nobody else has at least one.

The case for Djokovic being the GOAT is stronger than it has ever been. However, we still need to zoom out and consider all of the last 20 years of tennis from Federer, Djokovic and Nadal before we crown Djokovic the GOAT.

There are non-traditional records that all three of these greats hold. Federer has the most-consecutive weeks at No. 1. Djokovic has beaten both of his rivals at all four majors, and has been ranked No. 1 by the largest margin ever. Nadal, meanwhile, has the most titles at any single grand slam with 13 at Roland Garros. These are non-traditional in the sense that they aren't simple counting statistics like total grand slams won, total big titles, total weeks at No. 1, total top-10 wins, etc.

The tricky thing about these records is that recency bias can cause us to overvalue certain achievements. Not long ago, winning Roland Garros and Wimbledon was considered a very important achievement for becoming the GOAT. However, since it hasn't been achieved in a long time, it has become considered less valuable.

It is very possible that something similar happens to Djokovic's achievement of winning every important tournament multiple times. It is such a unique achievement that is so unlikely to be repeated, which makes it an achievement that could be easily forgotten. It's an unbelievable achievement that is on our minds right now because it was just completed, but will it be at the forefront of the GOAT debate in 10 years? Probably not.

The more traditional records, not impossible to repeat achievements, will be what holds the most weight in the GOAT debate once all three of these players have played their last match. Fair or not, those are the standard metrics for determining who is the GOAT. The one possible exception is if Djokovic finishes his career with all the big records. Then, the Federer and Nadal fans will want to talk about anything but statistics.

So the question is: has Djokovic done enough to retire today and be considered the GOAT? I don't think it is case closed yet. Federer still has a lot of cumulative stats where he is far ahead of Djokovic, making his case for being the GOAT still quite strong. Federer also has several records for longest streaks that Djokovic will never be able to break.

Let's take a look at what some of these records are.

These are the cumulative records, where Federer often leads merely because he is older, and Djokovic is likely to overtake him in a matter of time.

Grand Slam Titles: Federer 20, Djokovic 19

Grand Slam Finals: Federer 31, Djokovic 29

Grand Slam Semifinals: Federer 46, Djokovic 40

Grand Slam Quarterfinals: Federer 57, Djokovic 49

Grand Slam Wins: Federer 365, Djokovic 310

Top-10 Wins: Federer 224, Djokovic 222

ATP Finals Titles: Federer 6, Djokovic 5

There is also my personal favorite stat of rankings points earned.

At Majors: Federer 70,495, Djokovic 62,485

At All Elite 14: Federer 139k, Djokovic 131k

These are the records for longest streaks that Federer has over Djokovic.

Weeks at No. 1: Federer 237, Djokovic 122

Year-end No. 1: Federer 4, Djokovic 2

Grand Slam Finals: Federer 10, Djokovic 6

Grand Slam Semifinals: Federer 23, Djokovic 14

Grand Slam Quarterfinals: Federer 36, Djokovic 28

I don't think much weight should be given to Federer's records for longest streaks. They do display his dominance and consistency, which is why they can't be completely ignored. However, they aren't as important as cumulative records, since they don't take into consideration a player's entire career.

In response to Federer's lead in these cumulative stats, Djokovic has a couple counter arguments. The first is to note that Djokovic also leads several important cumulative stats: Weeks at No. 1, Year-End No. 1, ATP Masters 1000 titles, head-to-head record, etc. The other thing is to note that Djokovic's career so far is significantly shorter. Jimmy Connors' career dragged on and he accumulated lots of decent results because he refused to retire, which is why he is still the record holder for ATP matches and titles won. However, nobody would say he was better than Pete Sampras. While Federer's longevity rightfully strengthens his case for being the GOAT, winning over and over in Halle and Basel shouldn't be part of his resume.

Still, Federer still has some important arguments in his favor. Djokovic will need to chase down a few of those records and shrink the gap in others in order to really make this case closed, because some of the metrics that Federer still leads are very important in the GOAT debate.